Everyone repeat after me…
“Options on a 13F are reported with notional value as if each contract was 100 shares regardless of the actual delta of the contract”
Maybe we can avoid this next quarter (we won’t).
tagihan AI lu $2.000+ sebulan? masalahnya bukan harga modelnya. masalahnya cara lu kirim konteks.
buktinya: orang ini reduce bill dari $4.200 → $312/bulan. tools sama. shipping sama. yang berubah cuma satu hal: context discipline.
ini yang sebenarnya terjadi:
tiap "fix this bug" lu load 47.000 token repo. claude baca seluruh codebase buat nemuin 30 baris yang relevan. lu ulang 50 kali sehari. lu ngga bayar claude buat fix bug, lu bayar claude buat baca repo lu berulang-ulang.
5 fix yang langsung kerasa:
1. grep dulu sebelum attach file, kirim cuma yang relevan
2. cache context stabil (CLAUDE.md, system prompt) 10% dari harga input biasa
3. route by task: opus buat planning, model murah buat execution
4. summarize tiap 15 turn, reset context-nya
5. batch pertanyaan kecil jadi 1 prompt, bukan 10 call terpisah
context discipline adalah levernya. model pricing cuma downstream.
kebanyakan vibe coder masih fokus ganti model, bukan fix behaviornya.
kalian spend berapa sebulan sekarang?
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not sure if btc continues to provide diminishing returns but it is certainly possible (i choose to believe it wont for now)
but alts (on average) will continue to get more difficult and dangerous to trade imo, irreversible trend.
(1) massive competition amongst increasingly sophisticated buyers (who simultaneously believe less)
(2) primarily traded on perps/with leverage.
(3) huge dilution in coins with mkt valuing stuff high by default without justification
(4) launch FDVs always capturing 100% of optimism for the asset without respecting price/valuarion
(5) too much pre-market price discovery for (4) to be safe
the average 2017 buyer buys spot and hodls weeks/months cos they believe, add on the way up, asset was trading at low val early so works out.
average 2025 buyer is buying on perps without checking the valuation and sells whenever their PNL goes red or force sells in liquidation.
however, it will remain the best place for returns for smart ppl. skill expression and asset selection is much more important. patience much more highly rewarded over being "early" on liquid markets last few years.
and then outlier assets will continue to exist, maybe 1 every couple of years, and when they turn up you can turn brain off and 2017 it.
imo anyways (hopefully)