Fed Rate Prediction for January 27, 2026: HOLD (55.8% confidence)
Powered by ML transfer learning across 480+ central bank meetings.
https://t.co/aQ5g8FcCus
🎯 Fed Rate Prediction for January 27, 2026: HOLD (80% confidence)
Powered by ML transfer learning across 480+ central bank meetings.
https://t.co/1HKislmPXk
FOMC Rate predictor web app is semi live, still tinkering, but at least we have a Prediction for January now:
52% CUT - 47% Stay Same
https://t.co/LB3yHIePHn
@hey_conrad_ don't worry about the algorithm when you're making music like this dude. I love the way you drive your songs. Let the community know how we can help you get your stuff out. @itsmurphmusic@ARLO_music
Hey @DisneyStore! Love the site, perf notes from a fellow dev:
Search API ~1.2s + 30+ scripts (15 Tealium tags) slowing things down.
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Already great UX, these would make it fly! 🚀✨
Take a look at my prediction for the next Fed rate decision. I've been messing around with cursor and some ML to see what's possible.
Logically it makes the most sense to me that the Fed holds rates next meeting, but it's fun when model and market disagree leading to better model calibration.
December 9/10, 2025 FOMC Prediction
PREDICTION: DECREASE (CUT) (68.9% confidence)
| Decision | Probability |
|----------|-------------|
| DECREASE | 68.94% |
| HOLD | 30.58% |
| INCREASE | 0.48% |
Key Context
- Current Fed Funds Rate: 3.875% (after Oct 29 cut)
- Recent History:
- Sep 17, 2025: Cut -0.25% → 4.08%
- Oct 29, 2025: Cut -0.25% → 3.875%
- Rate momentum: -0.50% over last 3-6 months (2 consecutive cuts)
- Previous decision: Decrease
Interpretation
The model predicts the Fed will cut rates by 25bps to ~3.625% at the
December meeting. The key driver is the momentum from two consecutive cuts
- central banks tend to continue cutting cycles once they begin.
Market vs Model
Interestingly, the web search showed that market consensus now expects the
Fed to hold in December due to divided FOMC views and inflation still at
3% (vs 2% target). The model's prediction differs - it sees the cutting
momentum as the stronger signal.
Hey @DisneyStore! Love the site, perf notes from a fellow dev:
Search API ~1.2s + 30+ scripts (15 Tealium tags) slowing things down.
Quick wins:
Lazy load images
Consolidate tracking
Handle blocked trackers gracefully
Remove unused font preloads
Already great UX, these would go
@WOS_Global there’s a bug with alliance chat. Messages keep disappearing for many and the only fix is to restart the game. The problem returns after some time.
State 2684
Id: 416727026