.Aaron.Dishner.

Teaching. Trading. TBO. Crypto courses at The Better Traders. Official links below 👇

[.Aaron.Dishner. @M00NINPAPA1]

BTC closed red, but the revenge in this chart is that resistance shifted higher while price stayed above the cloud. I still see BTC as bullish, not broken: on-balance volume is below its 21 SMA, yet that moving average is rising, so the bearish volume reading sits inside a chop..

[The Better Traders @bettertraders_]

I explain why I watch dominance to understand where money is flowing, and how stablecoin and others dominance give different clues about the market.

Educational market commentary only. Not financial advice.

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

1/ BTC confirmed Sunday’s close above the old TBO Resistance, then Monday’s high set new resistance

I think a fan-line break this week and an ascending-wedge move toward the $93,650 Fib are equally likely

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

2/ OTHERS.D is forming a second bearish divergence with about 18 hours left in the candle

If it holds, I plan to sell 30% of all my ALT positions for stables
That is conditional, not an action taken now

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Member Win

Quick long at market open, clean execution, and done for the day. That is the point of having a plan before the move happens.

Results vary. Not financial advice.

#TheBetterTraders #TradingCommunity #CryptoTrading

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Sitting on my hands in this crypto rally is harder than it sounds after BTC gained 2.1% Sunday, closed above TBO resistance at 84,999, and left a predictive wick pointing toward 93K. The macro trend remains extremely bullish, but overbought RSI and weekly stablecoin dominance turning oversold tell me this is the time to plan for a pullback and take some profit on the way up—not chase every green candle.

My Bitcoin price analysis stays bullish while respecting that countdown risk, and my Ethereum technical analysis remains constructive as ETH holds above the cloud and targets TBO resistance at 2,789. Bitcoin dominance moving higher is pressuring altcoins, OTHERS dominance still has a major wall at 9%, and DXY holding above long-term resistance alongside a bullish USDJPY reversal is the macro warning that keeps me patient even while the total crypto market stays strong.

My altcoin market outlook is selective rather than passive. Cardano closed above TBO resistance after a 6.5% day, FLUID stacked three TBO breakouts and moved 19%, FET still has to clear historical resistance near 28 cents, and STRK confirmed back-to-back breakouts above resistance; those setups can keep running, but the stablecoin-dominance countdown and several overextended charts are why I would still sell some rips, buy planned dips, and avoid confusing a strong rally with a risk-free one.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Rally Signals Profit-Taking Discipline
03:29 Stablecoin Dominance RSI Signals Pullback Risk
06:59 Bitcoin Dominance Pressures Altcoin Rotation
09:08 Total Crypto Market Stays Crazy Bullish
11:12 DXY Resistance Hold and USDJPY Raise Macro Risk
15:35 Oil Support Loss Would Boost Stocks and Gold
21:27 Altcoin Cardano Breakout Signals Further Upside
23:43 BNB Confirms the Springboard Bounce
27:02 BTW Bearish Divergence Signals Dump Risk
31:02 Club Picks Keep Strong Bullish Momentum
34:31 GMI Remains Strong Bearish
38:01 QQQ Breakout Confirms the Bullish Trend
42:49 Netflix Below Support Confirms Bearish Trend
45:31 YouTube Picks Need Volume and Confirmation

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

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[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Bitcoin’s first dump will happen, and I’m using the surge from 62K to 81K plus prior cycles to prepare for what may happen next. Across earlier rallies, the first major Bitcoin pullback often set the size of the next one, while a third hit was the one that finally damaged confidence. The recent 9% dip still looks gentle beside the 17%–30% drawdowns in the examples I reviewed, so I’m preparing for a much harder reset rather than assuming this time is different.

I’m using the TBO transition above the cloud and the rising slow line as the framework, not pretending I know the catalyst or exact timing. Bitcoin could push higher first, but the historical median in these examples points toward roughly a 17%–20% pullback, potentially near 70K if the recent high held. The first major drop can still become a buy-the-dip opportunity when the trend remains strong and price produces the V-shaped recovery seen in earlier cycles.

My preparation starts with simplifying the portfolio: enough Bitcoin to act as a crypto buoy, stablecoins reserved for panic buying, and a deliberate altcoin allocation rather than dozens of forgotten positions. If Bitcoin falls 20%, some alts could lose 30%–50%, so I want the exit plan before I enter—buy the dip, sell the rip, and decide whether profits return to Bitcoin, selected alts, or cash. I’m also accounting for cycle degradation, because an old coin’s previous high is not a guarantee that it will make another one.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Rally Raises Bull-Back Risk
03:03 Bitcoin Pullbacks Signal a Series of Three
06:10 Third Bitcoin Pullback Breaks Market Confidence
08:21 Bitcoin Rallies Expose the One-Two-Three Pattern
10:27 Repeated Bitcoin Pullbacks Confirm V-Shaped Recoveries
12:51 Twenty-Percent Bitcoin Risk Defines the Cycle
15:03 TBO Signal Confirms Strong Bullish Mode
17:18 Current Bitcoin Setup Awaits Its First Pullback
19:24 Portfolio Concentration Reduces Pullback Risk
21:28 Bitcoin Buoy Limits Altcoin Drawdown Risk
23:34 Stablecoin Reserves Provide Buy-the-Dip Protection
25:35 Trading Plan Defines When to Sell the Rip
28:01 Altcoin Cycle Degradation Raises Portfolio Risk
30:32 Portfolio Strategy Strengthens Pullback Preparation

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[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Member Win

A Better Traders Club member shared how two short positions gave them a stronger profit platform to keep trading from.

Results vary. Not financial advice.

#TheBetterTraders #TradingCommunity #CryptoTrading

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

Crypto whiplash is the message after BTC wicked to 87,220, stopped just short of the prior 87,278 wick, and still failed to close above the next Fibonacci level. I see that predictive wick and the stronger volume as evidence that interest is returning, while the bullish macro trend keeps a close above TBO resistance and the 0.5 Fibonacci level in play.

My Bitcoin price analysis stays constructive despite the red close, and my Ethereum technical analysis is also positive because ETH’s TBO, on-balance volume, and volume remain strong. The risk is stablecoin dominance: its TBO closed-short signal warns of an upside reversal and renewed fear, but Bitcoin dominance has not escaped its range, so I’m watching for ETH dominance and OTHERS dominance to rise as the altcoin pullback reaches the fast line.

My altcoin market outlook treats this pullback selectively. Litecoin’s close above TBO resistance supports bullish continuation, AERO remains a buy-the-dip candidate if it returns to the fast line, and DXY’s breakout above long-term resistance is the macro pressure point even though its overbought weekly RSI has marked pivot highs before; USDJPY’s second bullish reversal signal is also bad news for the yen.

CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 Bitcoin Predictive Wick Signals Upside
02:06 Stablecoin Dominance Signals Reversal Risk
04:30 DXY Breakout Raises Macro Pressure
07:15 Nikkei Resistance Drop Confirms Bullish Uptrend
10:48 Litecoin Breakout Confirms Bullish Continuation
13:19 CIBR Momentum Stays Strong Bullish
15:52 SMH Resistance Signals Profit Taking
18:19 AI Bullish Divergence Signals Caution
20:36 AERO Pullback Points to Next Run
22:53 Robinhood Bullish Trend Defines Cloud Position
25:40 Palantir Momentum Points to Higher Targets

[Aaron Dishner @MooninPapa]

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Trade Kalshi Perpetuals: https://t.co/qAYXZUoEvo
I’m an independent Kalshi affiliate and may earn a commission. Perpetuals trading carries a high risk of loss; availability and eligibility may vary.

🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: https://t.co/2U5YT0uGn4
💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level!
🥇 Join the Club
Indicators, strategies, alerts, and early video access: https://t.co/tVQObrab0W
📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: https://t.co/pa1C8hcxPK
🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms: https://t.co/SKRamaTZfJ