Sometimes you just need to zoom out to see the big picture --> 5 year returns (annual CAGR):
Bitcoin 84% (13%)
BRK 75% (11.9%)
S&P500 72% (11.4%)
Bonds -38% (-9.2%)
With S&P500 as the core and $BTC and $BRK.B as the incremental 'value' barbell you're still beating $META $AMZN and bonds over the last 5 years (even with this recent drop in bitcoin). Let's check again in 5 years...
Zcash is down 50% since I wrote this 2 weeks ago….
“Meanwhile the benefit is enormous: anyone, anytime, can verify Bitcoin’s supply. The 21 million cap is an observable fact, not a promise. Shield the entire supply and you reintroduce the one question a reserve asset can never afford to leave open: do you actually trust the cap? For digital gold, glass walls are a feature.”
https://t.co/XPVzUYj2ww
Six months ago: will the Fed cut 3 or 4 times in 2026?
Today: zero cuts priced until July 2027 and ~85% odds the next move is a HIKE
S&P500 has had 23 all-time highs so far this year. Maybe short-term rates aren't going higher 🤔
I know have 30+ scheduled agentic tasks...this one has had the biggest impact:
I spent months building a pipeline where every podcast, article, and idea I consume gets synthesized, categorized, and surfaced back to me in context automatically. Here's how it works:
https://t.co/2mOs3TWaIr
Someday, everyone will realize how revolutionary this is. David has spent his life working on payments ($pypl, $meta).
@lightspark is built on bitcoin rails!!
I’m a payments geek, and I’m having so much fun playing with the capabilities we’ve built @lightspark. I can beam money in realtime almost anywhere around the world in any fiat or stablecoin 24/7. This is what I always wanted. Moving $ like any other content type on the Internet.
Banks are getting into Bitcoin...AND companies with Bitcoin products are seeking banking licenses...🤯
FIDELITY DIGITAL ASSETS APPLYING FOR NATIONAL BANK CHARTER
CIRCLE $CRCL APPLYING FOR NATIONAL TRUST BANK
COINBASE $COIN CONSIDERING A BANK CHARTER
SOFI $SOFI TO USE BITCOIN RAILS FOR INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES AS WELL AS CREATE BITCOIN PRODUCTS (INVESTING PLATFORM, STABLECOIN ACCESS, BITCOIN LENDING, ETC)
Don't forget: biggest payer of short-term rates is the US Treasury (and they can't afford higher rates w/39T debt).
Warsh playbook (1 change coming):
✅Rate cuts still more likely (despite market thinking this won't happen)
✅Yes we will have more inflation in 2026/2027 (Fed needs to monetize the debt - they just can't say that!)
🛑QE will be slowed or stopped and Fed balance sheet will shrink allowing rate cuts to happen.
Don't forget: biggest payer of short-term rates is the US Treasury (and they can't afford higher rates w/39T debt).
Warsh playbook (1 change coming):
✅Rate cuts still more likely (despite market thinking this won't happen)
✅Yes we will have more inflation in 2026/2027 (Fed needs to monetize the debt - they just can't say that!)
🛑QE will be slowed or stopped and Fed balance sheet will shrink allowing rate cuts to happen.
nothing has really changed...
✅Yes we will get more rate cuts in 2025
✅Yes we will have more inflation in 2025
✅Yes we will likely have more QE again in 2025
Big developments for Bitcoin every day now! 😮
1) USD stablecoins will be able to settle on bitcoin rails
2) Square (w/ millions of merchants) to enable Bitcoin lightning payments for all eligible sellers on March 30, 2026.
3) more favorite SEC guidance for Bitcoin mining
https://t.co/cWkpQSQWGU
.@spark in WDK is a big milestone for Bitcoin. Thrilled about our partnership with @tether to enable hundreds of millions of wallets with fast, cheap Bitcoin payments. 🤝 @paoloardoino & team
today: bitcoin at ~$74,000 (market cap $1.48 trillion)
$1,500,000 bitcoin price prediction in 10 years @Matt_Hougan
Bitcoin is at least worth $100,000-$200,000 (market cap of $2-4 trillion) which would be equivalent to other large tech company valuation (bitcoin likely has more long-term use cases than any one of those companies)
https://t.co/Ue8a3yxtiC
During war, gov'ts can block the exits (capital controls, etc.)
550M USDT users are bypassing banks in emerging markets = one step closer to bitcoin.
AI = deflation = lower rates coming
Wartime Bitcoin. Potential Bitcoiners. Rates Fall. 👇
https://t.co/s2ocN6ZtT2
Berkshire Hathaway's 2026 intrinsic value / 2026 analyst price targets:
UBS: $866K
Bloomstran: $855K @ChrisBloomstran
Tilson: $801K @WhitneyTilson
$BRK is currently trading $747,800 which is 10-13% discount to its intrinsic value which is probably why buybacks have resumed.
Prediction markets won't just forecast the future. They will become the verifiable truth layer powering global governance, corporate planning, and a multi-trillion dollar AI economy.
Prediction Markets = Truth Layer
Prediction markets aren't just bets, they're becoming the world's most honest real-time data source for finance, policy, and AI. The crowd knows.👇
Google Finance. CNN. Substack. 35 million subscribers. Prediction market data isn't just for traders anymore. It's becoming how the world reads the news.
@Kiojame_