₿rian Maass

former public company CFO, value investor in #bitcoin and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.A $BRK.B

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

OUSD looks like a stablecoin story. It's a Bitcoin rails story. https://t.co/xbNpSNxotg

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Sometimes you just need to zoom out to see the big picture --> 5 year returns (annual CAGR):

Bitcoin 84% (13%)
BRK 75% (11.9%)
S&P500 72% (11.4%)
Bonds -38% (-9.2%)

With S&P500 as the core and $BTC and $BRK.B as the incremental 'value' barbell you're still beating $META $AMZN and bonds over the last 5 years (even with this recent drop in bitcoin). Let's check again in 5 years...

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Zcash is down 50% since I wrote this 2 weeks ago….

“Meanwhile the benefit is enormous: anyone, anytime, can verify Bitcoin’s supply. The 21 million cap is an observable fact, not a promise. Shield the entire supply and you reintroduce the one question a reserve asset can never afford to leave open: do you actually trust the cap? For digital gold, glass walls are a feature.”

https://t.co/XPVzUYj2ww

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Six months ago: will the Fed cut 3 or 4 times in 2026?

Today: zero cuts priced until July 2027 and ~85% odds the next move is a HIKE

S&P500 has had 23 all-time highs so far this year. Maybe short-term rates aren't going higher 🤔

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

I know have 30+ scheduled agentic tasks...this one has had the biggest impact:

I spent months building a pipeline where every podcast, article, and idea I consume gets synthesized, categorized, and surfaced back to me in context automatically. Here's how it works:

https://t.co/2mOs3TWaIr

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Someday, everyone will realize how revolutionary this is. David has spent his life working on payments ($pypl, $meta).

@lightspark is built on bitcoin rails!!

[David Marcus @davidmarcus]

I’m a payments geek, and I’m having so much fun playing with the capabilities we’ve built @lightspark. I can beam money in realtime almost anywhere around the world in any fiat or stablecoin 24/7. This is what I always wanted. Moving $ like any other content type on the Internet.

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

There are now 15+ bitcoin or crypto companies/ exchanges now seeking OCC trust or banking charters...

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Banks are getting into Bitcoin...AND companies with Bitcoin products are seeking banking licenses...🤯

FIDELITY DIGITAL ASSETS APPLYING FOR NATIONAL BANK CHARTER

CIRCLE $CRCL APPLYING FOR NATIONAL TRUST BANK

COINBASE $COIN CONSIDERING A BANK CHARTER

SOFI $SOFI TO USE BITCOIN RAILS FOR INTERNATIONAL REMITTANCES AS WELL AS CREATE BITCOIN PRODUCTS (INVESTING PLATFORM, STABLECOIN ACCESS, BITCOIN LENDING, ETC)

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Polymarket has 35% probability the fed hikes rate this year.

That's not going to happen!!

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Don't forget: biggest payer of short-term rates is the US Treasury (and they can't afford higher rates w/39T debt).

Warsh playbook (1 change coming):
✅Rate cuts still more likely (despite market thinking this won't happen)
✅Yes we will have more inflation in 2026/2027 (Fed needs to monetize the debt - they just can't say that!)
🛑QE will be slowed or stopped and Fed balance sheet will shrink allowing rate cuts to happen.

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Don't forget: biggest payer of short-term rates is the US Treasury (and they can't afford higher rates w/39T debt).

Warsh playbook (1 change coming):
✅Rate cuts still more likely (despite market thinking this won't happen)
✅Yes we will have more inflation in 2026/2027 (Fed needs to monetize the debt - they just can't say that!)
🛑QE will be slowed or stopped and Fed balance sheet will shrink allowing rate cuts to happen.

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

nothing has really changed...
✅Yes we will get more rate cuts in 2025
✅Yes we will have more inflation in 2025
✅Yes we will likely have more QE again in 2025

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

6 months later: QE has been running in the background +$200B added to Fed's balance sheet!!

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Powell announced last week QT is ending 12/1.

Liquidity in markets showing signs of stress…SOFR elevated.

More QE is on the way…

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Big developments for Bitcoin every day now! 😮

1) USD stablecoins will be able to settle on bitcoin rails

2) Square (w/ millions of merchants) to enable Bitcoin lightning payments for all eligible sellers on March 30, 2026.

3) more favorite SEC guidance for Bitcoin mining

https://t.co/cWkpQSQWGU

[David Marcus @davidmarcus]

.@spark in WDK is a big milestone for Bitcoin. Thrilled about our partnership with @tether to enable hundreds of millions of wallets with fast, cheap Bitcoin payments. 🤝 @paoloardoino & team

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

today: bitcoin at ~$74,000 (market cap $1.48 trillion)

$1,500,000 bitcoin price prediction in 10 years @Matt_Hougan

Bitcoin is at least worth $100,000-$200,000 (market cap of $2-4 trillion) which would be equivalent to other large tech company valuation (bitcoin likely has more long-term use cases than any one of those companies)

https://t.co/Ue8a3yxtiC

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

https://t.co/2MYnXpIRZP

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

During war, gov'ts can block the exits (capital controls, etc.)

550M USDT users are bypassing banks in emerging markets = one step closer to bitcoin.

AI = deflation = lower rates coming

Wartime Bitcoin. Potential Bitcoiners. Rates Fall. 👇
https://t.co/s2ocN6ZtT2

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Berkshire Hathaway's 2026 intrinsic value / 2026 analyst price targets:

UBS: $866K
Bloomstran: $855K @ChrisBloomstran
Tilson: $801K @WhitneyTilson

$BRK is currently trading $747,800 which is 10-13% discount to its intrinsic value which is probably why buybacks have resumed.

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Prediction markets won't just forecast the future. They will become the verifiable truth layer powering global governance, corporate planning, and a multi-trillion dollar AI economy.

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Prediction Markets = Truth Layer

Prediction markets aren't just bets, they're becoming the world's most honest real-time data source for finance, policy, and AI. The crowd knows.👇

[₿rian Maass @MaassCFO]

Google Finance. CNN. Substack. 35 million subscribers. Prediction market data isn't just for traders anymore. It's becoming how the world reads the news.
@Kiojame_