MacroPulse.org

US macro and global geopolitical inference. Major site wide upgrades are live. Updated daily. Email: [email protected]

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

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[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

@lisaabramowicz1 Stress data remains calm for now: IG spreads 0.78%, HY 2.71%, and the St Louis Fed index -0.51, despite rising 0.32 last week. Our current market regime markers based on backtested historic bond market data also point to an orderly market in the short term.

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Unemployment rate: 4.20% -> 4.10% | YoY -0.2 pp
- Payrolls: 158.9M -> 158.9M | YoY +0.2%
- Participation: 61.50% -> 61.40% | YoY -0.8 pp
- Avg hourly earnings: $37.60 -> $37.62 | YoY +3.2%
- Manufacturing hours: 41.70 -> 41.70 | YoY +1.5%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Initial jobless claims: 198k -> 199k | YoY -11.9%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Henry Hub gas: $3.15 -> $2.89 | YoY -9.7%
- WTI crude: $84.81 -> $80.46 | YoY +17.6%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Job openings: 7.5M -> 7.4M | YoY +2.2%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu Treasury update

- 3-month Treasury yield: 3.83% -> 3.91% | YoY -0.44 pp
- 2-year Treasury yield: 4.28% -> 4.25% | YoY +0.56 pp
- 5-year Treasury yield: 4.45% -> 4.40% | YoY +0.65 pp
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.75% -> 4.70% | YoY +0.48 pp

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

Card stress is real: roughly 13% of balances are 90+ days late BUT the NY Fed says the flow into serious delinquency was 7.1% in Q1, little changed y/y. Real spending is +2.5% y/y.

We think the distinction is pretty important. The roughly 13% figure is the stock of balances already seriously delinquent; newly delinquent flows were broadly stable.

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu Treasury update

- 3-month Treasury yield: 3.82% -> 3.83% | YoY -0.58 pp
- 2-year Treasury yield: 4.23% -> 4.28% | YoY +0.34 pp
- 5-year Treasury yield: 4.38% -> 4.45% | YoY +0.49 pp
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.68% -> 4.75% | YoY +0.38 pp

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Initial jobless claims: 188k -> 197k | YoY -10.0%
- Income: $26.9T -> $27.0T | YoY +3.9%
- Disposable income: $23.7T -> $23.7T | YoY +4.2%
- Spending: $22.1T -> $22.2T | YoY +6.3%
- Real spending: $16.8T -> $16.9T | YoY +2.5%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

@PeterSchiff Yield curve is bear-steepening hard.

30Y near 19-year highs. When the Fed holds rates through inflationary regimes the bond market never lies, watch it call the bluff again.

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

@HenrikZeberg @grok We’ve often thought that @elonmusk should probably use his Grok Ai more often before being so strident on politics. Wasn’t that the point of it, to be maximally truth seeking?

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu Treasury update

- 3-month Treasury yield: 3.90% -> 3.83% | YoY -0.57 pp
- 2-year Treasury yield: 4.26% -> 4.22% | YoY +0.36 pp
- 5-year Treasury yield: 4.35% -> 4.37% | YoY +0.47 pp
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.61% -> 4.67% | YoY +0.33 pp

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Gasoline: $4.05 -> $3.93 | YoY +25.8%
- Home prices: 333.0 -> 335.1 | YoY +1.1%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

@NickTimiraos Whatever new way to read the economy is decided upon we’ll be keeping a close eye on the yield curve for our members. The bond market will see through any BS just like it has done over many presidents over history.

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Core capex: $5.1B -> $5.1B | YoY +35.7%
- Durables ex-transport: $18.5B -> $18.6B | YoY +6.7%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- New home sales: 0.62M -> 0.63M | YoY -5.6%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu data update

- Initial jobless claims: 209k -> 187k | YoY -14.2%

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/fFkVbyUU8n

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

https://t.co/srNZ4t0LFu Treasury update

- 3-month Treasury yield: 3.87% -> 3.89% | YoY -0.52 pp
- 2-year Treasury yield: 4.26% -> 4.31% | YoY +0.48 pp
- 5-year Treasury yield: 4.37% -> 4.41% | YoY +0.53 pp
- 10-year Treasury yield: 4.63% -> 4.67% | YoY +0.32 pp

[MacroPulse.org @MacropulseUSA]

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