brian king

[brian king @MacroTST]

@zerohedge Pullback, not breakdown.

[brian king @MacroTST]

@unusual_whales The Fed can set the front end. Deficits set the long end.

[brian king @MacroTST]

Japan is moving from “ultra-loose forever” to catch-up tightening.

A BOJ hike to 1% in June would support JPY and pressure JGBs, but the bigger signal is October risk: Japan may no longer be the world’s easy-money anchor.
$EWJ $FXY

[brian king @MacroTST]

The AI “pause” debate just went mainstream.

When OpenAI and Anthropic both ask for global coordination, it’s not just about safety — it’s also about who gets to stay in the race.

Regulation may not kill AI capex. It may make the winners even bigger.
$QQQ

[brian king @MacroTST]

Inflation is moving back toward 4%, the bond market is already pricing higher rates, and Trump is still pushing for cuts.

Warsh’s first Fed meeting is no longer about policy fine-tuning — it’s a test of whether the Fed chooses market credibility over political pressure.

AI remains the equity market’s last defense, but higher yields make the AI capex trade much more fragile.
$TLT $IEF $QQQ
https://t.co/ASMavZPspu

[brian king @MacroTST]

Samsung’s Nvidia story is no longer just about catching up in HBM.

Talks now cover HBM4E, HBM5, foundry work and next-gen Groq AI chips. The real upside trigger is simple: can Samsung convert “strategic talks” into long-term HBM supply and LP40 foundry orders?
$NVDA $SSNLF

[brian king @MacroTST]

Apple AI is no longer a demo problem. It’s a monetization problem.

850M+ iPhones can’t run basic AI features, but EU/China are still missing and true agents remain early.

That makes autumn the real event: Siri 2.0 + iCloud+ + iPhone 18 demand.

$AAPL $QQQ $XLK

[brian king @MacroTST]

Lithium’s selloff may be a positioning reset, not a cycle break.

Citi still sees a 4% supply deficit in 2026, low visible inventories, and H2 restocking driven by EV/ESS demand plus export front-loading before China battery rebates expire.
$LIT $BATT

[brian king @MacroTST]

Citi’s point: the US market is structurally fragile.

Shorts are rising, but tech longs are still crowded and profitable. CPI, the Fed and AI IPOs could turn from catalysts into liquidation triggers fast.
$QQQ $SPY
https://t.co/fdjAN0hZIv

[brian king @MacroTST]

Ceasefire is not bearish enough for oil.

The market is no longer pricing just supply disruption — it is pricing the scramble to rebuild strategic reserves after the shock.

Energy security demand may keep oil tighter for longer.
$USO $BNO

[brian king @MacroTST]

The real risk is not whether Trump wants lower rates — it’s whether Warsh refuses to deliver them.

If the Fed keeps inflation control, QT discipline and cautious guidance at the core, markets pricing easy money may face a very different path: fewer cuts, higher long yields, and pressure on long-duration assets.
$SPY $QQQ
https://t.co/4zcpla5i9U

[brian king @MacroTST]

The real risk is not whether Trump wants lower rates — it’s whether Warsh refuses to deliver them.

If the Fed keeps inflation control, QT discipline and cautious guidance at the core, markets pricing easy money may face a very different path: fewer cuts, higher long yields, and pressure on long-duration assets.
$SPY $QQQ
https://t.co/4zcpla5i9U

[brian king @MacroTST]

AI trade isn’t dead — it’s crowded.

Goldman and Barclays warn Friday’s tech selloff may be a preview, not a one-off. Momentum longs are at record congestion, while vol-control and CTA funds could be forced to cut risk if volatility persists.

The risk is not AI demand. It’s positioning.
$QQQ $SPY
https://t.co/mIpegRYoeY

[brian king @MacroTST]

The first real space economy disruption may not be tourism or mining — it may be medicine.

Microgravity can improve drug crystallization, turning complex biologics from long IV infusions into faster injections.

Space pharma is moving from sci-fi to supply chain.
$ARKX $ITA

[brian king @MacroTST]

SemiAnalysis wanna be RobotAnalysis?

[SemiAnalysis @SemiAnalysis_]

China's Unitree Will Dominate Global Robotics
The Fastest Iteration Cycle In Next-Gen Robotics Should See Unprecedented Acceleration

https://t.co/0HKSayvvTK

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Iranian oil exports are collapsing:

Iran exported just ~209,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in May, the lowest since early 2020.

This marks a -84% decline from April levels, which stood at 1.34 million barrels per day, and -89% from March levels, which were at ~1.90 million barrels per day.

As a result, China's imports of Iranian crude fell to 1.10 million barrels per day in May, the lowest since January 2025, according to Kpler.

This comes as the US naval blockade, which took effect on April 13th, has severely restricted Iranian exports by preventing most vessels from entering or departing Iranian ports.

Meanwhile, Iranian floating storage has declined -43 million barrels since late April, to ~147 million barrels, with ~67 million barrels stranded inside the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman and unable to reach buyers.

If these conditions persist for another 2 months, Iran could effectively run out of oil available to ship to China, its largest buyer.

Iranian oil shipments are declining at a rapid pace.

[brian king @MacroTST]

The June Fed meeting is less about a hold and more about the signal.

If Warsh drops easing bias, dots shift toward hikes and inflation risks rise, markets may have to reprice from “higher for longer” to “hikes are back.” Energy shock + AI capex keep pressure alive.

$TLT

[brian king @MacroTST]

IMF: shocks are no longer temporary—they are the macro regime.

AI may boost productivity, but if gains concentrate while jobs and communities absorb the pain, it could repeat globalization’s political backlash.

Resilience is becoming an asset class.
$SPY

[brian king @MacroTST]

The market read NVIDIA’s memory cut as weak AI demand.

Morgan Stanley says it is the opposite: supply is so tight that racks may ship with lower memory just to protect GPU volumes.

In this AI cycle, DRAM is no longer a component. It is the bottleneck.
$SMH