Jake Hanley, CMT

"Nullius in Verba" #Markets #Commodities #FreeMarkets

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

Know. Your. History.

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

This AI just exposed the BIGGEST legal insider trading operation in America.

A platform called GovGreed built a seven-layer machine learning system that cross-references every stock trade disclosed by every sitting politician against the bills their committees control, the campaign donations they receive, and the companies their votes directly impact.

It scored all 540 politicians currently in Congress. And the numbers are crazy:

56% of every stock purchase made by Congress in the last 16 months was on a stock directly affected by a bill the buyer later voted on. That is 6,170 out of 11,016 total purchases.

More than HALF of all congressional stock buys are on companies whose fate that same politician is about to decide.

343 of 540 Congress members actively trade stocks while holding access to nonpublic legislative information.

That is 63.8% of the entire legislature making market bets with an informational edge that would put any hedge fund manager in prison.

The AI identified 752 active "Triple Signals" in the current Congress. A Triple Signal fires when three conditions line up at once:

The politician sits on the committee controlling a bill, they traded stock in a company affected by that bill, AND they received campaign contributions from that same industry.

Bills carrying these insider indicators pass at 5.4 TIMES the normal rate.

Now look at the individual leaderboard:

- Nancy Pelosi's estimated portfolio sits at $194 million with a Greediness score of 98.1 out of 100
- Ro Khanna made 13,231 trades across 800+ different tickers
- Michael McCaul made 32,302 trades and filed 6,670 of them late
- Thomas Suozzi filed 86.4% of his trades late with an average delay of 396 days, meaning his disclosures landed over a YEAR after he made the trade

And then there is Lisa McClain, the fourth-ranking Republican in the House. She has made 1,443 trades in three years, more than 98% of all politicians tracked.

She violated the STOCK Act twice in a single year, disclosing up to $900,000 in trades months after the legal deadline. Her husband bought up to $250,000 in Elon Musk's xAI, which quietly converted into SpaceX equity before last Friday's $2 trillion IPO.

The penalty for all of this? A $200 fine.

The number of Congress members ever prosecuted under the STOCK Act since it passed in 2012? Zero.

And the cruelest part is this:

A bill to ban congressional stock trading was introduced in January 2026. It has bipartisan support. Over 80% of American voters want it passed.

But Congress is sitting on it, because the people who would have to vote yes are the same people making millions from the system staying exactly the way it is.

They write the insider trading laws, they exempt themselves from enforcement, they trade on the information those laws generate, and when they get caught, they pay a fine that is basically nothing.

The AI didn't discover anything Congress was hiding. It just organized what was already public into a pattern so obvious that nobody can pretend it isn't there anymore.

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

OUT NOW - Very few people know about the $205B Investment Arm of the U.S. Government, the financial firepower behind "Ukraine Mineral Deal" & "Strait of Hormuz Reinsurance Program."

That ends today.

Apple🔊https://t.co/wyyLmWVVlX
Spotify📽️https://t.co/Aw50Z9UGuA

1/3

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

https://t.co/MmI0bY84mX

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

This understanding or lack thereof has HUGE policy implications. If every time high prices show up the Fed treats it like an inflation risk then they risk making the consumer pain worse.

Simple test : if consumers feel stretch because of higher prices, you don’t have inflation you have higher prices and easing rates will only hurt consumers more.

If prices are going up and consumers are NOT feeling the pinch then you have too much money in the system, chasing too few goods. This is inflation.

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

CPI measures prices. It does not measure inflation.

Yes, inflation shows up has higher prices, and you cannot have inflation without higher prices.

BUT, higher prices do not always mean INFLATION. Higher prices occur for many reasons, inflation can be one of those reasons.

A war that shuts down supply chains is another potential reason.

A drought the stifles crop production is another reason.

These are all reasons for higher prices.

Higher prices can and do occur without inflation - but inflation does not occur without higher prices.

Not all animals are dogs but all dogs are animals.

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

OUT NOW - a deep dive on data center private credit with John Cocke of Corbin Capital (10B AUM):

-data centers loans >> loans to PE-backed software cos

-private credit to finance ~300-400B of data centers per year

-Too much capital was lent at too lenient terms to "Sponsor" (PE backed) firms... John expects recovery rates to be below expectations for sponsor-backed deals

-per "expensive lawyers": the hypsercaler commitment to these loans is near ironclad, they will be paying these loans back (even though they are off balance sheet) because of "take-or-pay" nature of commitments etc.

Apple https://t.co/es088qtCbK
Spotify https://t.co/5opoe8WM7t
YouTube https://t.co/QYVUmojLqO

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

AI is not replacing “jobs.”

It’s replacing “functions.”

Having replaced a function, the employee can now perform a new function.

The same employee is likely also tasked with overseeing the AI solution that replaced the old function, to ensure it continues to operate efficiently.

Job loss “doomerism” is way overrated.

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

AI is not replacing “jobs.”

It’s replacing “functions.”

Having replaced a function, the employee can now perform a new function.

The same employee is likely also tasked with overseeing the AI solution that replaced the old function, to ensure it continues to operate efficiently.

Job loss “doomerism” is way overrated.

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

https://t.co/D6PkTFNTCJ

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

@marcportermagee Student passes to the best ski resorts in the East…good perk…just saying

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

@BostonGlobe VT based ETF Financial firm - 100% remote. Not actively hiring, but always looking to connect with those in the industry who love NE, but don’t want to give part of their life up to a commute.

[Teucrium ETFs @TeucriumETFs]

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TUCRM-5151367-01/26

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

Thrilled to announce this...

I'm launching a public markets & macro program for @MTSlive, an @X-native news network to make sense of what’s happening right now

@maxwiethe & I are hosting our first show LIVE TODAY at 4pm ET

Don't miss it 👇

https://t.co/NhQYDERfyZ

[Teucrium ETFs @TeucriumETFs]

Fertilizer equities whipsaw as urea supply crunch deepens

Urea markets are tightening hard, and fertilizer equities are pricing in the volatility rather than a straight-line rally. Over the last month, Yara (YAR NO) is roughly flat, K+S (SDF GR) is down 13%, and Nutrien (NTR US) is off 10%, but all three caught a bid on Apr 13 (+2% range) after President Trump announced plans for a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

That is the route for about 60% of Australia's urea, and the April 8 ceasefire did not fully restore throughput. Yara had already hit a recent high Apr 7 on a Pareto Securities buy upgrade citing a "solid case for a prolonged upcycle," before giving back most of those gains the following session. Governments are moving fast. India tendered for 2.5 million tons of urea ahead of monsoon season.

Thailand is negotiating 2 million tons from Russia to break local hoarding. Australia set up a government-industry working group with domestic urea supplies stretching only into early May. Turkey scrapped customs duties on urea and nitrogen fertilizers to shore up supply security.

Morgan Stanley expects nitrogen prices to stay above marginal cost through 2026, with market normalization potentially pushed to 2028. Near-term risks skew higher, though any durable reopening of Hormuz could unwind a chunk of the risk premium quickly.

Sources: Bloomberg (YAR NO, SDF GR, NTR US), Morgan Stanley research, Reuters, trade press.

[Teucrium ETFs @TeucriumETFs]

The futures curve does not always move the way traders expect.

A contango market can create differences between spot prices and futures-based ETF behavior.

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Clarity on curve structure and roll mechanics can help set better expectations before you place a trade.

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#ETFeducation #Commodities #TradingRisks #FuturesBasics #AgriculturalMarkets

Investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures are generally volatile and are not suitable for all investors. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment. Investing in commodity interests’ subject investors to the risks of its related industry. These risks could result in large fluctuations in the price of a particular investment. Investments that focus on a single sector generally experience greater volatility.

TUCRM-5257800-02/26

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

Beware of narratives and opinions.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 The Wall Street Journal just dropped a bombshell report on the inside story of the Iran war...

The key revelations:

Trump used to call the Middle East "blood and sand" and wanted nothing to do with it.

Then Netanyahu gave him a "persuasive February briefing" in the Situation Room, backed by repeated calls from Lindsey Graham, and Trump changed his mind.

He thought it would be as easy as Venezuela.

Trump was "in awe" of the scale of the bombs, watching clips of explosions every morning.

But he did "little to sell the American public on the war" and grew frustrated when he didn't get praised for it.

His own team showed him midterm polling that proved the war was dragging down Republican candidates.

He "quickly began ruminating on how the military action could turn into a catastrophe."

On the Strait: Trump told his team before the war that Iran would "likely capitulate before closing the strait."

His advisers were "caught off guard" that tanker traffic stopped so quickly.

Trump later "marveled at the ease with which the strait was closed," saying "a guy with a drone can shut it down."

By late March, before the F-15 was even shot down, Trump ordered his team to find a way to start talks.

The war was already over in his mind weeks before the ceasefire.

His aides begged him to stop doing impromptu interviews because he was contradicting himself publicly.

He agreed to stop, then went right back to calling reporters.

The April 1 address to the nation was Susie Wiles' idea to "reassure the country Trump had a plan."

Trump didn't want to do it because, in his own words, he couldn't declare victory and didn't know where it was going.

This report paints a picture of a president who was talked into a war by Netanyahu and Graham, realized it was a mistake within weeks, spent the rest of the conflict looking for the exit, and was frustrated that nobody would give him credit along the way.

The war was an impulse, sold by an ally with different objectives, enabled by advisers who couldn't say no, and sustained by a president who was too proud to admit the mistake until the economy forced his hand.

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

Prices are multi-factored. Inflation and deflation are factors in prices. Inflation and deflation are tied to money supply.

Deflation is ALWAYS bad. In deflationary environments money is scarce to the point where people would rather exchange property for money rather than exchange money for property.

Lower prices can be good. But lower prices are not always due to deflation (i.e limited money supply). What’s more, lower prices are NOT good if deflation is the cause! Lower prices ARE good if driven by innovation and realization of productive efficiencies as observed in competitive markets.

[Monica Crowley @MonicaCrowley]

251 years ago tonight 🇺🇸

[Lyn Alden @LynAldenContact]

The fact that we have a gay chad treasury secretary is pretty funny.

Put in place by a Republican. Literally nobody cares about his personal stuff.

Lives in a rich pink house. Fights people too often. Finance expert.

We’re like, “bro, are you going to get interest rates down?”

[Jake Hanley, CMT @MacroView_Jake]

“The real question is whether policymakers who made climate absolutism the cornerstone of industrial policy grasp, yet, the scale of that error.”

👇

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Food for thought.

In the past six weeks, the world has changed, the illusion that AI, energy and security could be treated as separate policy silos has blown up. The AI arms race is not being won in Silicon Valley; it is being won in the wellheads and power plants of the United States. The binding constraint on frontier models isn’t PhDs or venture capital, it is cheap, reliable electricity, and in the real world that still means natural‑gas‑fired power at scale. On that front, Trump is playing a harder, more realistic game than the ESG‑addled pundit class and the AI Doomers on Wall Street who still treat energy as a boring footnote to their bubble narratives.

The spread between U.S. gas and seaborne LNG into Europe and Asia is the most important AI valuation metric almost nobody on the Street is modeling. Cheaper molecules mean cheaper megawatt‑hours, which mean cheaper compute – permanently lower operating costs for American AI champions versus their European and Asian rivals. Trump’s instinct to unleash domestic hydrocarbons and overbuild export and generation capacity looks, in this light, less like climate heresy and more like an industrial strategy to lock in U.S. supremacy in the one input AI cannot simulate: energy.

Then layer on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Europe and Asia are trying to build “digital sovereignty” on top of a maritime chokepoint they don’t control, praying the next drone strike or tanker incident doesn’t blow up their power prices. Brussels can pass as many AI Acts and Green Deals as it likes; it still can’t code around a missile in the Gulf. Beijing talks multipolarity while remaining hostage to seaborne molecules. The real question is whether policymakers who made climate absolutism the cornerstone of industrial policy grasp, yet, the scale of that error.

Meanwhile the US sits on abundant gas, deep capital markets and the dominant AI ecosystem – and under Trump is behaving, deliberately or not, like an energy‑and‑compute superpower. The uncomfortable truth for Wall Street and America’s allies is this: Trump’s crude energy realism is a far more coherent AI strategy than their exquisitely worded communiqués and virtue signalling MOUs.