Michael N

Start-up & Scale-up | Innovation | Best way to predict future is to create it!

[Michael N @Madijn]

@Hoefgeest @Hoefgeest Mee eens met je Box1 stelling, maar de uitvoering wekt een boel vragen op… Ik voel een training aankomen…

[Michael N @Madijn]

Interesting! @kurtsaltrichter Will history repeat itself with an inactive Fed (now with a reverse scenario)???

[Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter]

On this day in 1929, the Federal Reserve Board in Washington rejected the New York Fed's request to raise the discount rate for the eighth time in three months. NY Fed Governor George Harrison wanted to make borrowed money expensive enough to cool the speculation. Washington refused. Brokers' loans had ballooned past $7 billion. Investors were putting down 10% and borrowing the other 90% at 6%, betting on 30% returns. A rate hike would have destroyed that math overnight.

The Board finally gave in during August. New York got its rate increase to 6%. But by then, nine months of unchecked leverage had piled up. The market peaked September 3rd. By the end of October, the Dow was down over 30%.

Every month the Fed sat on its hands was another month of leverage building in the system. The 1929 crash had a lot of causes, but the discount rate stalemate was the one regulators had direct control over and chose not to use.

[Michael N @Madijn]

@Hoefgeest Modern Monetary Theory… Interessante term.

Is er een verschil tussen de wijze waarop dit in de US wordt toegepast (rechtstreeks dollar-centrale bank relatie) en de EU (landen hebben nog hun eigen obligaties maar wel een gezamenlijke Euro met een Europese Centrale bank)?

[Michael N @Madijn]

@Hoefgeest Interessant! Telkens een andere (onvoorziene) aanleiding met opvallend overeenkomstige rebounce… Ben benieuwd naar jouw analyse over de timing van het omslagpunt van bear naar bull is verder. Schrijf je heel 2027 al weg als bearish?

[Michael N @Madijn]

In line with: ‘Ideas are cheap, implenentation and execution is key!’

[Dustin @r0ck3t23]

Mark Cuban just described the largest wealth transfer of the AI era.

Almost nobody understood what he said.

Cuban: “There are 33 million companies in this country. Aren’t going to have AI budgets. Aren’t going to have AI experts.”

Not tech startups.

The shoe store. The regional trucking outfit. The accounting firm with 12 employees.

The businesses that actually run the physical economy.

They know AI is coming. They have no idea what to do with it.

Cuban: “You’ve got the head of Microsoft saying software is dead because everything’s going to be customized to your unique utilization.”

Software is dead.

The SaaS era ran on one rule. Build a generic product. Force millions of companies to bend their workflows around it. Charge rent forever.

AI ends the contract.

The business stops bending to the software. The intelligence bends to the business.

But customized by whom.

The third-generation manufacturer cannot tell Claude from Gemini. The county hospital is staring at a reactor asking where the light switch is.

Cuban: “Who’s going to do it for them?”

That question is worth more than the frontier models themselves.

Hundreds of billions are being burned to build the foundation. The smartest engineers alive are locked in a bloodbath over who owns the base layer.

Let them fight.

Let them burn the capital. Let them drive the cost of raw intelligence toward zero.

Because the wealth does not collect where the brain is built.

It collects where the brain meets the business.

Every ambitious kid in college right now thinks survival means a seat at OpenAI or Anthropic.

Cuban is staring at the other 99 percent of the economy.

Learn the models. Then learn the messy, unglamorous reality of how a 50-person company actually operates.

Walk through the door. Understand their problems. Wire the intelligence directly into their revenue.

That is not a job title. That is an entire economic class being born.

You do not need to build the brain. You need to build the nervous system.

The biggest winners of the electricity era were not the engineers who built the generators. They were the ones who walked into dark factories and showed the owners where to plug in.

33 million companies are standing in the dark right now.

Silicon Valley is racing to build the god. The fortunes will belong to whoever teaches him a trade.

[Michael N @Madijn]

To Big To Fail, but eventually it might…

[Felix Prehn ���� @felixprehn]

If You Don't Understand the Petrodollar, You Don't Understand Money

[tiway🦋💙 @sitiwayyy]

This amazing 😎

[Michael N @Madijn]

Interessant draadje!!!

[Koen Hoefgeest® Optie Advies @Hoefgeest]

Het geheim achter de AI 🤖 revolutie zijn de SPIEGELS🪞! Alleen Zeiss kan die maken. Zonder Zeiss is ASML kansloos. 🙅‍♂️☠️

[Michael N @Madijn]

Helderder dan dit wordt het niet

[Koen Hoefgeest® Optie Advies @Hoefgeest]

ZEISS-EUV-spiegels zitten op het absolute grensvlak van natuurkunde, metrologie, materiaalkunde én industriële discipline zitten. Dat is geen “kopieerbaar product”, maar het eindresultaat van 40+ jaar cumulatieve kennis.

Deze kennis is ‘stil’ dus niet gedocumenteerd. Dit is het meest onderschatte punt.

De cruciale kennis bij ZEISS is:
•niet gepatenteerd
•niet opgeschreven
•zit in mensen + proceservaring

China kan geen EUV-spiegels maken omdat ZEISS geen fabriek is, maar een geconcentreerde geschiedenis van natuurkundige grenskennis en die laat zich niet kopiëren. ☝🏻

[Michael N @Madijn]

Reminder to myself… Do some testing over the holidays…

[xAI @xai]

Today, we're excited to launch the Grok Voice Agent API, empowering developers to build voice agents that speak dozens of languages, call tools, and search realtime data.

https://t.co/7c7SLYzvum

[Michael N @Madijn]

Oopsy…

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@MichaelAArouet Bill Gates placed a massive short bet against Tesla of ~1% of our total shares, which might have cost him over $10B by now

[Michael N @Madijn]

Interesting innovation in thrombosis and embolism treatment… https://t.co/88OCPEVNbI

[Michael N @Madijn]

Interesting thread…

[Bravos Research @bravosresearch]

ALERT: Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position is now almost 30% of their total assets

This is a MAJOR warning signal…

A thread 🧵

[Michael N @Madijn]

@MDEMARIS Interesting! Timing will be everything…

[Michael N @Madijn]

@Hoefgeest Wat is nog wel een veilige haven?

[Michael N @Madijn]

@MDEMARIS @Barchart For some people: Clarifying is terrifying

[Michael N @Madijn]

@Hoefgeest En ik lees het pas vanochtend… Hoe verhoudt zich dit ‘breaking news’ t.o.v. jouw technische en cyclische analyses?

[Michael N @Madijn]

Nvidia Nokia deal explained in a nuttshell. #Reinventing is the name of the game

https://t.co/2GkxGJcdPI

[Michael N @Madijn]

@darshal_ AI

[Michael N @Madijn]

@Hoefgeest Mijn kennis over de beurscycli ‘schiet’ duidelijk tekort. Dus ik probeer aan te haken.

De ‘snapt niemand’ onderwerpen kan ik wel volgen. Maar de timing van de belangrijke details is me echter vaak een raadsel… Is vast ‘een boom over op te zetten’.