jubeithos

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@BowTiedLobster Makes sense, please keep up the great work! One of my favorite accounts.

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@BowTiedLobster @BowTiedLobster I love your work, although one thing that doesn’t make sense is why would Trump do this before midterms? His goal to keep Hormuz closed inevitably results in reduced power post elections and potential impeachment. Thanks for your thoughts.

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@BowTiedLobster I thought the same, if they can rearrange the world order as you have outlined, then they will have accomplished something no other president has in recent history and Trump could leave a legacy that will be talked about for generations. It’s worth the 2 year lame duck session.

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken The call volume is still exploding daily, only speeds things along. I was fortunate enough to buy calls at the absolute bottom a couple of weeks ago, up 200%+ recently.

[Gavin (humanist/acc) turbotourist!! @GavMcCracken]

Oh man the gamma is going to rip faces off. Between $10-$12.5 USD each +1% is almost 200k USD of market market money required to keep Delta neutral (hedge).

Meanwhile 18% of the float is sold short and we all know who is buying momentum

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken What is your price target on Rok.V?

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@ShaleTier7 @GavMcCracken

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken Right there with you @GavMcCracken

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken @citsecurities @JaneStreetGroup 60k shares traded AH, somewhat unusual for $OBE

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken Gamma squeeze begins

[Gavin (humanist/acc) turbotourist!! @GavMcCracken]

so uh, $OBE begins hitting the large amounts of unhedged market maker gamma in the range between $10.00 USD and $12.5 USD.

@citsecurities I hope you're not on the other side of this bet against me a second time in a row.

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken @citsecurities We’re one cent away let’s GOOOO

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken Excellent buy, I have 12k shares and some call options. I agree with you I expect the upward move to be explosive.

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken OBE breaking out of this channel, lets see if it holds

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken What price do you plan to scale out of your calls @GavMcCracken

[Max @MaxPapazov]

$obe trading significantly below NAV, hedges rolling off, extreme pricing tailwinds coming, zero taxes, buying back shares, increasing production, improving decline rates, EV/2026 FFO ~ 3.5x, and FFO remains roughly 50-60% above maintenance capex, meaning they have 50-60% more excess cash for reinvestment, buybacks, debt reduction, dividend, etc after accounting for maintenance costs

2026 forecasted FFO is $315m with maintenance capex spend of $175m assuming $75 WTI

2027 forecasted FFO is $500m with maintenance capex spend of $240m off just $70 WTI because of increased production coming online …

They have 61m net shares..

If OBE does buybacks for 12 months and has elevated EPS from higher for longer oil prices, you could see a 6x+ multiple, not 3.5x.. And at a 6x multiple with annual 2027 FFO of 500m CAD and with 55M shares projected (9 million shares bought back would cost around $100-$120m assuming range is between $15-20 per share, which is very manageable) that gets you a value of…

$54.55/share compared to < 13/share today.. (500 x 6 / 55m = $54.55 CAD)

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken Bought around 11,000 shares, @GavMcCracken should I switch out of $FANG?

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@GavMcCracken @omgsidewalks Thanks man, needed to hear this today

[jubeithos @MainManMaini]

@LVision_Trading If daily average is 17.6 pre war I would hardly call the recent days crippled, more like in ICU😆

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Hormuz has been effectively closed for days, as video shows

Bad news for the world economy as oil inventories keep running down

August shock is becoming more likely by the day