Samuel Makinde

@Makinde10072017

I am a Portfolio Manager with skills in generating superior returns for my clients

Joined January 2018

599 Following

62 Followers

111 Posts

Makinde10072017 retweeted

Rufybaba

@Rufyb

27 days ago

Nigeria pulled in $10.37bn of foreign capital in Q1 2026, an 84% jump on the same quarter last year and a 61% rise on Q4 2025. To put that in perspective, between 2014 and 2025, the best single quarter we ever managed was $8.5bn, back in Q1 2019. We have just blown past it. On this run-rate, a $40bn+ year is on the table, which would be the highest in our history, comfortably ahead of the $23.9bn we did in 2019 and the approx. $23bn from 2025. This is a big deal, and it is marked progress. After the painful naira float and the sequence of reforms, confidence has come back to the room But the real story is not just the size. What I wanna pay a lot more attention to is the composition. And this is where I would slow the applause. Of the $10.37bn that came in, portfolio investment accounted for $9.86bn. That is about 95% of total inflows. FDI was only $135m, or 1.3%. Other investment was $374m, or 3.6%. So, Nigeria is not yet attracting big-ticket long-term factory-building investment. Nigeria is attracting financial-market money, and it is a critical distinction. Portfolio inflows are very important, and we should not downplay them. They help stabilise the FX market. They bring dollars into the system. They improve liquidity. They make it easier for the CBN to manage market pressure. They support the naira. They improve investor confidence. They also signal that foreign investors are beginning to take Nigeria seriously again, especially after reforms around FX, interest rates, and market pricing. In simple terms, FPI is the money that comes when foreign investors say “Nigeria’s yields are attractive. The currency market looks more credible. Let us buy treasury bills, bonds, and equities.” For a country that suffered severe FX scarcity, broken investor confidence, trapped funds, and a wide gap between official and parallel market rates, this is not a small improvement. It means the market is becoming more investable again. It means Nigeria is slowly rebuilding credibility. But FPI has one limitation. It is not patient money. It can enter quickly and leave quickly. The same investor buying Nigerian treasury bills today can exit tomorrow if US rates become more attractive, if oil prices fall, if Nigeria’s reserves weaken, if inflation becomes stubborn, if political risk rises, or if they feel the naira may depreciate again. That is why portfolio flows can stabilise the naira, but they cannot by themselves transform the economy. They are good for the financial market. They are not enough for broad economic development. FDI is different. FDI is the kind of money that builds factories, expands warehouses, opens plants, creates supply chains, hires workers, trains people, buys land, imports machinery, and stays for many years. That is the type of capital that creates deeper employment and productivity. For FDI to come in strongly, Nigeria needs more than high interest rates. ✑ It needs stable power. ✑ It needs security. ✑ It needs a predictable policy. ✑ It needs ports that work. ✑ It needs faster dispute resolution. ✑ It needs reliable tax rules. It needs confidence that investors can bring money in and take profits out without chaos. ✑ It needs a currency regime that is credible, not just temporarily stable. ✑ It also needs a strong enough demand for companies to sell profitably. So, the current capital importation story is good, but it is still incomplete. It tells us that Nigeria has become attractive again to yield-seeking investors. It does not yet tell us that Nigeria has become attractive enough to build factories at scale. And that is the bridge we must cross. For the average bread seller in Mushin, a record $10.4bn quarter changes almost nothing she can touch. The portfolio money sits in financial assets in Lagos and Abuja; it does not become a job for her son or a customer at her stall. What it does do, indirectly, is hold the naira steadier, so the flour and sugar she buys don't reprice upwards every fortnight. The day FDI shows up properly is the day a manufacturer opens a line down the road, her neighbour gets hired, that wage gets spent at her table, and demand for her bread actually grows. That is the inflow that reaches Mushin. Until the FDI line on that chart climbs off the floor, we should celebrate the $10.4bn for exactly what it is, that is, a vote of confidence in our paper, not yet a vote of confidence in our economy. So, yes, the bread seller in Mushin may not receive foreign portfolio investment directly. But she feels the effect if the naira is stable, if flour prices stop rising sharply, if transport costs are predictable, and if customers can still afford bread. However, she will feel a much bigger impact when FDI starts coming in. That is when new factories open. That is when logistics improves. That is when more people get jobs. That is when household income improves. That is when demand for bread grows because more people can afford breakfast without thinking twice. So, my sense is this: Nigeria has fixed part of the confidence problem in the financial market. That is why the dollars are coming back. But the next phase is harder. We now need to convert financial-market confidence into real-economy confidence. Because a country does not become rich only because foreign investors are buying its treasury bills. A country becomes rich when capital enters the productive side of the economy, builds capacity, creates jobs, raises incomes, and improves the life of the bread seller in Mushin. Selah ✌️✌️✌️

Rufyb's tweet photo. Nigeria pulled in $10.37bn of foreign capital in Q1 2026, an 84% jump on the same quarter last year and a 61% rise on Q4 2025.

To put that in perspective, between 2014 and 2025, the best single quarter we ever managed was $8.5bn, back in Q1 2019. We have just blown past it.

On this run-rate, a $40bn+ year is on the table, which would be the highest in our history, comfortably ahead of the $23.9bn we did in 2019 and the approx. $23bn from 2025.

This is a big deal, and it is marked progress. After the painful naira float and the sequence of reforms, confidence has come back to the room
But the real story is not just the size. What I wanna pay a lot more attention to is the composition. And this is where I would slow the applause.

Of the $10.37bn that came in, portfolio investment accounted for $9.86bn. That is about 95% of total inflows.

FDI was only $135m, or 1.3%.

Other investment was $374m, or 3.6%.

So, Nigeria is not yet attracting big-ticket long-term factory-building investment.

Nigeria is attracting financial-market money, and it is a critical distinction.

Portfolio inflows are very important, and we should not downplay them. They help stabilise the FX market. They bring dollars into the system. They improve liquidity.

They make it easier for the CBN to manage market pressure. They support the naira. They improve investor confidence. They also signal that foreign investors are beginning to take Nigeria seriously again, especially after reforms around FX, interest rates, and market pricing.

In simple terms, FPI is the money that comes when foreign investors say “Nigeria’s yields are attractive. The currency market looks more credible. Let us buy treasury bills, bonds, and equities.”

For a country that suffered severe FX scarcity, broken investor confidence, trapped funds, and a wide gap between official and parallel market rates, this is not a small improvement.

It means the market is becoming more investable again. It means Nigeria is slowly rebuilding credibility.

But FPI has one limitation.

It is not patient money.

It can enter quickly and leave quickly.

The same investor buying Nigerian treasury bills today can exit tomorrow if US rates become more attractive, if oil prices fall, if Nigeria’s reserves weaken, if inflation becomes stubborn, if political risk rises, or if they feel the naira may depreciate again.

That is why portfolio flows can stabilise the naira, but they cannot by themselves transform the economy.

They are good for the financial market.

They are not enough for broad economic development.

FDI is different.

FDI is the kind of money that builds factories, expands warehouses, opens plants, creates supply chains, hires workers, trains people, buys land, imports machinery, and stays for many years. That is the type of capital that creates deeper employment and productivity.

For FDI to come in strongly, Nigeria needs more than high interest rates.

✑ It needs stable power.
✑ It needs security.
✑ It needs a predictable policy.
✑ It needs ports that work.
✑ It needs faster dispute resolution.
✑ It needs reliable tax rules. It needs confidence that investors can bring money in and take profits out without chaos.
✑ It needs a currency regime that is credible, not just temporarily stable.
✑ It also needs a strong enough demand for companies to sell profitably.

So, the current capital importation story is good, but it is still incomplete.

It tells us that Nigeria has become attractive again to yield-seeking investors.

It does not yet tell us that Nigeria has become attractive enough to build factories at scale.

And that is the bridge we must cross.

For the average bread seller in Mushin, a record $10.4bn quarter changes almost nothing she can touch.

The portfolio money sits in financial assets in Lagos and Abuja; it does not become a job for her son or a customer at her stall.

What it does do, indirectly, is hold the naira steadier, so the flour and sugar she buys don't reprice upwards every fortnight.

The day FDI shows up properly is the day a manufacturer opens a line down the road, her neighbour gets hired, that wage gets spent at her table, and demand for her bread actually grows.

That is the inflow that reaches Mushin. Until the FDI line on that chart climbs off the floor, we should celebrate the $10.4bn for exactly what it is, that is, a vote of confidence in our paper, not yet a vote of confidence in our economy.

So, yes, the bread seller in Mushin may not receive foreign portfolio investment directly.

But she feels the effect if the naira is stable, if flour prices stop rising sharply, if transport costs are predictable, and if customers can still afford bread.

However, she will feel a much bigger impact when FDI starts coming in.

That is when new factories open. That is when logistics improves. That is when more people get jobs. That is when household income improves. That is when demand for bread grows because more people can afford breakfast without thinking twice.

So, my sense is this:

Nigeria has fixed part of the confidence problem in the financial market.

That is why the dollars are coming back.

But the next phase is harder.

We now need to convert financial-market confidence into real-economy confidence.

Because a country does not become rich only because foreign investors are buying its treasury bills.

A country becomes rich when capital enters the productive side of the economy, builds capacity, creates jobs, raises incomes, and improves the life of the bread seller in Mushin.

Selah ✌️✌️✌️

156

Samuel Makinde

@Makinde10072017

Who to follow

Last Seen Users on Sotwe

Trends for you

Most Popular Users