Malav Dani, CFA

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

Let's all take a moment to understand how self-serving it is for OpenAI, Anthropic and other execs of big hyperscalers to talk of slowing things down.
1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down.
2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents.
3. IPOs need hype & puffery; "we are so awesome it could become dangerous" is hype & puffery
4. Cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth as IPOs look to be pushed out

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Wild 24 hours for AI and lots of different proposals have been made.

TLDR; the only *tangible* new fact is that OpenAI and Anthropic are going to have embedded 3rd party evaluators from unknown organizations with Dario floating METR as a possibility. Having 3rd party evaluators is smart as there is no Section 230 style liability shield for model outputs and showing a “duty of care” will be important in future litigation. Several internet companies might have gone bankrupt without Section 230 so limiting liability really matters.

There are minimal investment implications from this single new fact, but I do think that for anyone who wants a “smoother for longer” cycle then most constraints are good: wafers, watts, real rates and spreads. Excessive regulation is a different matter but I don’t think we are anywhere close to this even if the vector changed over the last 24 hours.

To summarize the events:

Dario made the most maximalist proposal of the weekend: embedded 3rd party evaluators, a national regulatory regime for models beyond a certain capability/ingredient threshold, a broad international regulatory pact between democracies, stricter limits on compute/distillation for China and then a different international regulatory regime that encompasses China. Before there is a national regulatory regime, he wants a Sherman act waiver so that Anthropic can safely coordinate with OpenAI and other frontier labs without antitrust fears. TBF, this latest proposal is much less maximalist than some of his prior proposals like “Policy on the AI Exponential,” where he advocated for an FAA for AI. I believe he is sincere in his beliefs. And despite all the protestations, all of this would also probably be good for his business over the long-term.

Sam agreed that embedded 3rd party evaluators were a good idea and stated they would implement them. Again, this is smart as should help limit future liability.

Elon said “Dario is right” and later specified that “Dario is right that there should be some oversight. Peer review of AI by competitors is the right way to start this off.” This would be a MPAA like self-regulatory structure for AI with regular calls between the labs plus a process where each new model is evaluated for safety by competitors for a 1-2 week period before being released. That is *wildly* different from Dario’s proposal and in-line with what David Sacks has been proposing. Elon also stated that nothing was going to slow down open-weight models.

Demis said that Dario’s essay was a “step in the right direction.” Dario also said that he was also open to Demis’ idea of a FINRA like self-regulatory structure as part of his proposal.

David Sacks had a thoughtful post where he said that Dario and Sam should pace unilaterally, called the antitrust waiver a cartel request and denied that METR was truly independent given their ties to Anthropic.

Sriram Krishnan, former White House AI advisor, noted that it would be important to have the 3rd party evaluators come from independent organizations that are not affiliated with any lab, which is basically an indirect statement about the relationship between METR and Anthropic which Sacks was explicit about.

Clem from Hugging Face said they were open to being a neutral 3rd party evaluator, which is interesting especially if Jensen was consulted before that post.

Alexander Wang from Meta noted that alignment would be an increasing focus going forward.

An executive order seems likely after all this and the language in this EO is going to be really important. It is possible to democratize and distribute AI broadly and safely without centralizing it in the hands of a few corporations who might each become more powerful than any single government.

I do not want a few humans in control of intelligence.

I want us all to have our own intelligences that reflect our own values and human variation in all of its richness.

Intelligence distribution over intelligence centralization FTW.

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@lisaabramowicz1 Literally yesterday Bill Gross on San Francisco Bloomberg mentioned him buying few regional banks.

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

Check out my latest article: Value at Risk https://t.co/AElWqmwfLb via @LinkedIn

[Reuters @Reuters]

From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - India needs less Tesla, more Toyota https://t.co/XnNORjPJtD https://t.co/XnNORjPJtD

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

Anyone wants to make 550% weekly?

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@GRDecter It could have predicted any day after that day, market fell everyday.

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@POTUS watch @truTVjokers whenever you have 30 min, they have the best way to make you laugh and forget every bad thing!

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@leadlagreport I do not think anyone is old enough to remember the market crash in 1929! People extended credit lines to invest in stock market to only loose money on the down side. Sometimes you need to agree - “its too good to be true”

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@truTVjokers @jamessmurray @Joe_Gatto @SalVulcano @BQQuinn Will Season 9 be available on HBO max?

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@truTVjokers Definitely @Joe_Gatto on this one. Hand size and ring on the finger. Or maybe @jamessmurray

[yash @itsyashdani]

Built a GPT-3 bot that lets people with no accounting knowledge generate financial statements 📈 👀

Here it is creating balance sheets by turning everyday language into Python code:

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@garyvee Frozen indian curry so that i dont have to cook anything.

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@garyvee And?

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@garyvee you say “love the process”, is the process of finding a new job to be loved or just go with it?
#garyvee #lovetheprocess #Respect

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@garyvee dropping his kicks on 11/14, children’s day. But aint a children’s play. #HustleBaby #Dirt

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

Live life like it's a challenge. If you succeed, it'll pump you up and make you hustle more. If you loose, you'll learn more. @garyvee

[Erik Huberman @ErikHuberman]

"I eat shit for a living and as an entrepreneur, your ability to each shit, will determine where you end up" @garyvee

[Malav Dani, CFA @Malav_Dani]

@garyvee I would die to meet for 2-3 mins. Please it would be a huge favor. Thank you