@KrisPatel99 2trillion deficits per year mean 150bn of new debt each month without adding rollover supply. Endowments can at best fill 6 months of supply and its one time , what happens after that ?
@LukeGromen Q - why is it that basis trade hedge funds have not been mentioned by anyone at all, how are they doing , during liberation day a little movement caused ripples and this time with 3x bigger moves there has been no mention of any basis trade blowing up . What explain this ?
@alojohhardcore Thought so , the numbers spaceX is throwing out are so fantastical, the approach seems to be to simply dazzle the audience by hyping up things to extraordinary levels , he is doing it knowingly.
@alojohhardcore SpaceX does not have serious cash flow like Google or Meta , Anthropic and Google deals were window dressing the IPO (published numbers dont convey details)
@alojohhardcore AJ, a general Q on SpaceX targets ,how much can SpaceX raise from the market to fund this ? Assuming 1Gw = 80bn , this 8-10Gw talk is not easy for anyone without serious cash flow. Is this another fantastical carrot ?
@l_m_s15 Reading this slide they have pipeline of 3GW - that would imply $3bn revenue possibly if all materialized ($1mn per 1Mw), and 1GW is ordered + under active negotiation ($1Bn). Looks promising.
@EpsilonTheory Last year even small moves were causing the basis trade hedge funds to bleed and cause chaos (Bessent mentioned this around tarrif rollout) , but this time there is no mention of basis trade ?
Taiwan DRAM inventory levels peaked in March 2025 and have declined sequentially for the past seven months. This data provided us with an early indictor of incoming memory demand. Going forward, we continue to monitor these inventory trends as a quantitative indicator for when memory supply begins to converge with end-market demand. To learn, purchase and download samples to ChipBook: https://t.co/s4mx4ZoAfH
With Micron earnings last week absolutely smoking all estimates and putting up truly insane numbers, the timeline is once again asking if this is the top of the memory cycle.
I sat down to do the work, and it seems we are in for a much longer shortage than the market believes.
A few key numbers:
1. Token demand is projected to 24x by 2030.
2. HBM supply is projected to double by 2030.
3. HBM demand is projected to 5x by 2030.
Thereโs a massive structural supply/demand imbalance in the market, and itโs actually growing not shrinking.
Link to read the full free report below.
@CABeyney A general Q, the new DCs that are being setup by DataOne - how will the upcoming 800V DC architecture and power demand effect you/Nebius and others, how much redesign and retrofitting will be required on new DCs ?