Manal Issa El Khoury

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[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Overnight updates day 71:

* still waiting for an Iranian response to US one page memo to end the war. Both Trump & Rubio indicated the response should come soon

* “We may go back to Project Freedom if things don’t happen”- Trump

* Vance met with the Qatari prime minister on Friday to discuss bilateral relations and the situation in Iran, as well as regional security and stability

* more Strait clashes: US forces carrying struck two empty Iranian oil tankers. Iran said it seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, which appeared to be a sanctioned vessel carrying the Islamic Republic’s *own* oil

* UAE said Iran fired two ballistic missiles and three drones at it on Friday, causing 3 moderate injuries

* FT: The US Department of State said it was targeting four entities, including three Chinese groups, for providing satellite imagery that enabled Iran to conduct military strikes against American forces in the Middle East.

* NYT: A large oil slick is spreading in the Persian Gulf off Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude oil export terminal, satellite images show

Brent $101

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

My understanding is that the continuous media hype (leaks and rumors) from the Pakistani side is complicating the situation, and could lead to changing the venue of the talks.

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Overnight news days 49

- Israel / Lebanon 10day ceasefire gone into effect

- In a statement released at the official start time of the cease-fire, the Israeli military said it had struck 380 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon over the prior 24 hours, including launchers and headquarter sites. (NYT)

- Trump claimed, without evidence, that Iran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapon and turning over nuclear material. The deal would also include “free oil” and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has not publicly confirmed it’s made those concessions.  (BBG)

- No time set for round 2 of talks yet

- The UK and France will host a summit with ~ 40 nations to discuss setting up a naval force that would ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait (after the war)

- 14 vessels have turned around in 3 days due to blockade (CentCom)

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

All of this talk of who brokered the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon is missing the point.

Meanwhile, another, much more significant track is unfolding behind the scenes.

Iran was informed by the Pakistani side that President Donald Trump intends to move the deal forward. His phone call with Joseph Aoun was not about diplomacy. It was a symbolic last step to establish ownership.

At this point, it does not matter anymore who owns the deal.

📌 A preliminary framework is being negotiated between Washington and Tehran, with the goal of negotiating a long-term resolution of the dispute.

However, the disagreements are structural rather than procedural.

▪️ Enrichment
The US government is not internally united on this issue. J.D. Vance spoke of a 20-year cessation, while Trump seems to have shifted to an indefinite moratorium. In any case, this shows the complete lack of a unified strategy.

▪️ Highly-enriched uranium stockpile
Iran will not send its enriched uranium to be stored abroad. Not only because nothing has been agreed upon, but because this is among Iran’s means of self-defense at the moment.

▪️ Strait of Hormuz
Any form of sharing control and monitoring of the strait is still unclarified. Considering that roughly 20% of the world’s oil goes through it, one would think this is not a secondary issue, it is the key.

▪️ Sanctions and seized assets
Iran wants upfront economic concessions. The US may not be willing to agree without seeing the irreversible action from Iran’s side. Disagreement over sequencing issues has derailed previous negotiations.

Finally, there are those issues which, while being discussed, do not quite sit comfortably at the negotiating table:

🔴 Iran’s ballistic missiles capabilities
🔴 Iran’s alliances in the region

From Washington’s perspective, this is what constitutes the file.

Because trust is not the background of this negotiation, it is part of the structure.

Escalation rhetoric and signals continue alongside negotiations on multiple fronts.

In light of the U.S. blockade, Iranian sources began discussing the possibility of blocking the Bab el-Mandab strait.

This is no mere rhetoric.

It is a signal that while Hormuz is the means, Bab el-Mandeb is the escalation.

The problem is not whether a deal can be done.

It is about whether both sides are talking about the same deal.

[Nawaf Salam نواف سلام @nawafsalam]

أرحّب بإعلان وقف إطلاق النار الذي أعلنه الرئيس ترامب، وهو مطلب لبناني محوري سعينا إليه منذ اليوم الأول للحرب، وكان هدفنا الأول في لقاء واشنطن يوم الثلاثاء. وإذ أهنّئ جميع اللبنانيين بهذا الإنجاز، أترحّم على الشهداء الذين سقطوا، وأؤكّد تضامني مع عائلاتهم، ومع الجرحى، ومع المواطنين الذين اضطروا إلى النزوح من مدنهم وقراهم، وكلّي أمل أن يتمكّنوا من العودة إليها في أسرع وقت.
ولا يسعني أيضًا إلا أن أشكر كل الجهود الإقليمية والدولية التي بُذلت للوصول إلى هذه النتيجة، ولا سيما من قبل الولايات المتحدة الأميركية، وفرنسا، ودول الاتحاد الأوروبي، وكل الأشقاء العرب، وفي طليعتهم المملكة العربية السعودية وجمهورية مصر العربية، إضافة إلى دولة قطر والمملكة الأردنية الهاشمية.

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

How many books will be written in the future to disown this period in the U.S. history?

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

بحسب مصدر مطلع، حمل قائد الجيش الباكستاني إلى طهران خبر نجاح المساعي لضمان وقف إطلاق نار في لبنان. وتنتظر إيران إعلاناً إسرائيلياً لاتخاذ الإجراءات اللازمة.

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

Pakistan talks failed, but the obstacle has shifted.
Not the nuclear file, the Strait of Hormuz.
An issue barely discussed weeks ago is now CENTRAL.
After 21 hours of talks, the ceasefire looks less like peace and more like a fragile pause and a divided war.
As I wrote for @ForeignPolicy
https://t.co/rx6Qfe9fIB

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

NYT: 3 main sticking points remained, according to two Iranian officials familiar with the talks:

- the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Iran saying it would do so only after a final peace deal

- the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. Iran made a counterproposal, but the sides were unable to reach a compromise, the officials said.

- Iran’s demand that about $27 billion in frozen revenues held abroad be released.

https://t.co/0ZsKf7nicb

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

‼️
Lebanese PM has announced he is postponing his trip to the UN and the US (was supposed to be there towards end of next week)

Pro- Hezbollah / Pro-Iran factions have urged supporters to take to the streets and outside the Government Palace the last 24h, labelling the PM a traitor and calling on him to resign

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Trump’s 3 options
1- continue with negotiations, extend ceasefire
2- walk away
3- intensify military action once again

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Overnight , even before unsuccessful talks concluded : Netanyahu says Israel will continue to fight against Iran and proxies

An explicit message to Erdogan too 🇹🇷

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

In welcome news for oil markets
Saudi East West Pipline is fully restored

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

عن المفاوضات في باكستان ومساراتها:
📌 الإطار العام للتفاوض تبلور بشكل كبير ولكن الشيطان يكمن دوما في التفاصيل. اتفاق الإطار وسيلة لتنظيم الصراع وإطالة أمد وقف إطلاق النار ريثما يتم التوصل إلى تسويات حقيقية.
📌 اللقاء بين قاليباف و جاي دي فانس كان وديا وعكس وجود ارضية مبنية من خلال تواصل سابق.
📌 مسألة لبنان ووقف اطلاق النار ما زالت القضية العالقة إلى جانب مضيق هرمز.
📌 يريد الإيرانيون تثبيت السيادة على المضيق كضمانة لتنفيذ أي اتفاق مستقبلي.
📌 يرغب الإيرانيون في إضافة الصين وروسيا إلى آلية تطبيق الاتفاق، بما في ذلك اي توافقات حول قضايا أخرى مرتبطة بالحلفاء.
📌 بالنسبة للنووي لا يعارض الإيرانيون العودة للصيغة العمانية المطروحة في لقاء جنيف الأخيرة والتي تتضمن آليات واضحة وتأكيد نية عدم تطوير سلاح نووي.
📌 يرفض الإيرانيون فرض سقف على برنامجهم الصاروخي.
📌 انهاء حالة الحرب وتوقيع معاهدة سلام مع أميركا يقرها الكونغرس ومحلس الشورى الإيراني وتوثق في مجلس الأمن الدولي ورفع فوري لجميع العقوبات.
📌

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Overnight Updates:
-US & Iran : Islamabad talks this weekend are happening

- Trump's Strait frustration: “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait. They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

- Trump in NBC interview: Iran's leaders 'much more reasonable' behind the scenes

- Khamanei Telegram statement demands war reparations and new protocol for the Strait

- Lebanon/ Israel direct negotiations (major step): this is not a ceasefire yet, Israel's Defense Minister Katz "the war will not be stopped'. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam to fly to the US to meet Rubio on Sunday. Lebanese, US and Israeli delegations to meet in DC next Tuesday.

- Regional ceasefire is largely holding BUT Kuwait reported drone attacks overnight (possibly from Iranian linked militias)

- Hormuz flow: only 3 ships got through yesterday

- Saudi Arabia has lost more than half a million barrels a day of oil output capacity (around 600kb/d) because of Iranian attacks according to the state-run Saudi Press Agency

- UK PM Starmer concludes his whistlestop tour round the Gulf

Brent $96

[Manal Issa El Khoury @Manaliek]

@JoumannaTV Are we even surprised anymore?

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

Definitely feels as though markets are underpricing these talks being unsuccessful

The Strait needs to be unconditionally re-opened; the uranium stockpile retrieved; centrifuges dismantled & Iran’s support of regional proxies to be severed for the US to paint this as a success

Is Iran going to capitulate for sanctions relief and « trade deals »? Are they at that point yet?

[Hiba Nasr @HibaNasr]

‼️ Exclusive :

Lebanon–Israel negotiations are set to precede those between Iran and the United States.

A preparatory phone meeting is being held today, bringing together #Lebanon ‘s ambassador to DC, Nada Hamadeh Mouawad; the Israeli ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa; and the Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department, Mike Needham.
The in-person meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, with Nada Hamadeh Mouawad leading the preparatory discussions for the direct negotiations.

The Lebanon file is now under the purview of U.S. Secretary of State @SecRubio and is entirely separate from the Iran file and the Islamabad track.

@AsharqNews

[Joumanna Nasr Bercetche @JoumannaTV]

The talks are now in doubt over Lebanon and frozen assets ⬇️

« Release of blocked assets » is a new latecomer obstacle (as opposed to an actual point to negotiate once talks start)

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

Till two hours ago, senior members of the team were still in Tehran, now MBG is requesting two measures to commence talks:
1- A ceasefire in Lebanon.
2- The release of Iran’s blocked assets.