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जय श्री राम 🚩
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THE FALL IS VISIBLE. THE RECOVERY NEEDS TIME.
Dalal Street is testing investors' patience more than their predictions.
Nifty closed at 22,231.80, after touching a fresh 52-week low near 22,180.
We have completed 8 consecutive negative weeks, with the 9th underway. A historical rarity not witnessed in nearly 25 years.
Nifty has closed below both its 200 Week SMA and EMA on the daily chart. Weekly confirmation is still awaited.
HAVE WE SEEN THE FINAL BOTTOM?
Nobody knows. Further downside cannot be ruled out.
Our approximate levels to watch:
21,800: Initial downside
21,300: Primary risk zone
20,500: Deeper correction
19,750: Severe stress
18,850: Extreme scenario
BUT WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THE FINAL BOTTOM?
History tells another fascinating story.
Selected major Nifty recoveries delivered:
2008: +181.4%
2011: +101.3%
2016: +82.1%
2020: +147.7%
2022: +73.1%
Historical median rise: 101.3%.
If history were to repeat even its lower-end selected rise of 73.1%, the potential Nifty equivalents would be:
From 21,800: Around 37,700
From 21,300: Around 36,900
From 20,500: Around 35,500
From 19,750: Around 34,200
From 18,850: Around 32,600
At the historical median rise of 101.3%, the corresponding levels would range from approximately 37,950 to 43,900.
These are mathematical historical illustrations, NOT assured targets.
AND HOW LONG COULD RECOVERY TAKE?
Selected historical median:
13 months from the final bottom to regain previous highs.
27 months from the final bottom to the next major cyclical peak.
If the bottom forms in late 2026, history offers late 2027 to early 2028 as an illustrative window for reclaiming the old high. Not a guarantee.
What could revive the bulls?
Geopolitical peace, cooling crude oil, easing US bond yields, rupee stability, improving earnings and policies that restore FII confidence.
Remember, the broader TIME correction began in September 2024.
PRICE PAIN TESTS CAPITAL. TIME PAIN TESTS PATIENCE.
My message to long-term investors is simple.
Don't waste the drawdown merely watching the index. Study businesses, protect capital, accumulate selectively and prepare for the next bull run with OUTPERFORMING STOCKS.
The next bull market may not reward every company equally.
PATIENCE IN DRAWDOWN. ENJOY THE NEXT BULL RUN WITH OUTPERFORMING STOCKS.
Miracles Ahead? Perhaps. But discipline, research and patience must come first.
Neither Bull Nor Bear. Be Fair.
Nilesh T Dedhia
#Nifty50 #Sensex #DalalStreet #StockMarketIndia #FII #LongTermInvesting #WealthCreation #BullMarket