N V Manohar reddy ACA

Professional practice. Direct taxation and markets. Knowledge is power. Chartered accountant.

[N V Manohar reddy ACA @Manoharreddynv3]

In trading, continuous profits will make you stubborn where as continuous losses will make you desperate.

#justathought

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

IC on Manipal Hospitals

JPM on Manipal Hospitals
Neutral, TP Rs 800
Manipal is among the largest private hospital chains in India and a leading consolidator, with growth supported by steady volume and ARPOB-led expansion, ramp-up in acquired assets, and capacity additions of ~2,600 beds by FY30.
However, return ratios remain in the high single digits, reflecting the acquisition-heavy growth mix and the time needed for recently acquired Sahyadri to be integrated and scaled
Neutral stance is driven by valuation (27x/22x FY28/29 EV/EBITDA, minority-adjusted; upside ~10%) & investor focus on clearer evidence of Sahyadri execution

UBS on Manipal Hospitals
Initiate neutral. TP Rs 850
Forecast revenue and EBITDA CAGRs of 19% & 20%, respectively, over FY26-30E
See potential for upside from a faster-than expected turnaround at Sahyadri and faster ramp-up of new facilities in Bengaluru.
However, acquisition-led growth has resulted in lower ROIC relative to industry leaders (Fig 27), which could limit further multiple rerating despite healthy operating growth
Stock has risen around 20% since listing and trades at 28x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, at a premium to large hospital peer group average of 24x
While growth remains healthy, believe much of the growth is already reflected in current valuations

GS on Manipal Hospitals
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 865
Expect: 1) Top quartile topline growth: >20% CAGR (high-teens on a proforma base) among larger peers over FY26-29E driven by ramp-up of new hospitals and improvement in base business mix;
2) Industry leading core margins to improve: Ex-Sahyadri FY26 EBITDA margins stood at 26.3%, with potential to expand driven by volume momentum and operating leverage;
3) Best-in-class track-record for turning around acquired hospitals: Manipal has been largest consolidator of beds in Indian healthcare space over past 5-6 years with >5,500 beds acquired –
@CNBCTV18News @ekta_batra

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Jefferies on Voda Idea
Initiate Buy, TP Rs 20
VIL offers high-beta turnaround opportunity in Indian telecom
Expect subscriber stabilization to support an 11% revenue CAGR over FY26-29 which along with strong operating leverage will drive a 25% cash EBITDA CAGR and a sharp ROIC inflection through FY31.
VIL's premium multiples should sustain during turnaround
With every 10% tariff hike potentially driving c.34% equity upside
investment thesis hinges on future tariff hikes and a required Rs160bn equity raise by FY30.
@CNBCTV18News @Reematendulkar

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Nomura on Ather Energy
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 1926
Konarc launch to drive more upside
Faster EV adoption strengthens Ather’s outlook
Raise FY28-29F volume estimates to 794k (+104% y-y) / 1016k (28% y-y) vs. 699k/896k
Now expect strong 54%/100%/31% revenue growth over FY27F/28F/29F (54%/80%/31% earlier) – an increase of 10-11%
Believe Ather’s premium valuation at 5-7x EV/sales should sustain
@CNBCTV18News @sudarshankr

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Jefferies on CDSL
Hold, TP Rs 1315
Pick-up in demat openings & a strong IPO pipeline has piqued investor interest in CDSL
Historically, large IPOs have positively impacted 50% of CDSL's op. revenues
Est that large IPOs lined up could add 3-4% to earnings, which is factored in our 19% 2-yr EPS CAGR est.
CDSL trades at 50x 1-yr fwd EPS, below historical peak multiples (80x), with reversion difficult as scarcity premium has eroded & competition is narrowing margin gap

Jefferies on Gold Financiers
Gold loan growth stays strong, but competition should rise as new players double branch additions in FY27
BAF is driving 35% of additions.
New branches are mostly in non-south states & also widening penetration.
Incumbent gold NBFCs gain from execution & trust advantages & have widened product variants to defend share.
Yield pressure has been limited.
Gold prices stays key swing factor
Retain Buy on MGFL & & see balanced risk reward for MUTH.
@CNBCTV18News

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Brokerages on Adani group stocks

Jefferies on Adani Enterprise
Buy, TP Rs 3830
AEL is a unique infrastructure incubator, building & scaling businesses across critical infra, energy transition, logistics, & import substitution.
With a proven track record of incubating mkt leaders, its portfolio spans growth platforms at different stages of maturity, offering a long runway for growth.
Backed by Rs2trln investments over FY26-31, est 23% EBITDA CAGR.
Airports, Data Centres, & ANIL are largest contributors to SOTP-based PT

MOSL on Adani Enterprise
Buy, TP Rs 3880
AAHL fundraise in line with monetization strategy, strengthens growth outlook
Management intends to use the proceeds to
(1) modernize and expand airport infrastructure,
(2) develop 22msf of mixed-use Adani Airport City projects in the first phase
(3) scale up ground handling and other non-aeronautical businesses
Estimate a CAGR of ~22%/29%/82% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY26-29, aided by growth, margin expansion, and increasing contribution from high-margin verticals.

Jefferies on Adani Energy
Buy, TP Rs 2060
Co has tied up 2.5 GW of round-the-clock (RTC) power supply to Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Cofor 25 years.
This increases tied-up volumes of the trading segment to 57% in FY28E vs 20% at end of 1QFY27, making EBITDA profile more sustainable.
Merchant prices have also been higher during 2QFY27 till date which could mean some positive surprise potential in the trading segment in 2Q also.

Macquarie on Adani Ports
O-P, TP Rs 2100
NQXT’s first full-year of consolidation and Colombo’s rapid ramp-up improve visibility on international cargo, while domestic growth is supported by capacity additions at Mundra, Dhamra and Vizhinjam, alongside incremental expansion and utilisation gains at Krishnapatnam, Gangavaram and Kattupalli.
Key projects include Mundra CT5 (+1.6mn TEUs) and Vizhinjam Phase 2 (5.7mn TEUs by Dec '28).
Management targets 1 billion tonnes of installed domestic capacity by December 2030
Recently awarded Paradip CQ-I and CQ-II concession adds a further 18 MMT of planned mechanised dry-bulk capacity (assumed commissioning by FY29E).
@CNBCTV18News @CNBCTV18Live

[N V Manohar reddy ACA @Manoharreddynv3]

@piyushchaudhry Cat is still going down through steps.

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Timely report on exchanges from Bernstein
NSE IPO round the corner(Price band Rs 1700-1785)

Bernstein on Exchanges
Initiate O-P on MCX, TP Rs 3830
Initiate U-P on BSE, TP Rs 2820
Exchanges have delivered handsome returns as retail participation wave has scaled earnings & val

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Jefferies on Textile sector
For Welspun Living - expect a 14% revenue CAGR over FY26-29E, with margin recovery driving 38%/ 71% EBITDA/ PAT CAGR, & ROCE expansion of 13ppt to 19%
For Raymond - expect a 23% EPS CAGR over FY26-29E & val at 6x 1Y-fwd EV/EBITDA appears attractive

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Jefferies on Textile sector
Welspun enjoys global leadership & is a compelling play on home-textile export opportunity
Raymond is a value buy with attractive risk-reward profile, backed by leadership in branded textiles & recovery potential in apparel business

@CNBCTV18News

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Jefferies on Textile sector
India's textile sector is entering a structural growth cycle, supported by China+1 sourcing & improved tariff competitiveness through UK/EU FTAs
Initiate buy on Welspun Living – TP Rs 260
Initiate Buy on Raymond Lifestyle – TP Rs 900

@CNBCTV18Live

[Neeraj Bajpai @NeerajCNBC]

#RateHikeKaMausam
1-US Fed hike odds near 58% for September rate hike.

2-ECB is expected to lift rates 25 bps to 2.5% this week.

3-Market has fully priced a 25 basis point Japan rate hike to 1.25% in September and one more hike likely in December.

What will RBI do?

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

GS on Shyam Metalics
Buy, TP Rs 1120
Posted a strong operating performance in Aug-26, despite limited support from prices.
Key points: 1) Both Sales volume and Realization rose YoY across the product categories;
2) Realization for longs rose while that of flat products fell MoM;
3) Implied revenue for Aug-26 rose 37.7% YoY to INR 20.2bn, per GSe.
SMEL has continued to show positive traction on revenue mainly on back of continuous capacity ramp up.
In Aug-26, have also witnessed price hikes across long products, which is likely to be beneficial

GS on ICICI BK
Buy, TP Raised to Rs 2000
ICICI bank mobilized USD17.9bn of FNCR deposits, accounting for 14% of total FCNR deposits mobilized by the banking system, compared to its overall deposit market share of 6.7%.
More importantly, believe ICICI's 50% share of un-levered deposits is likely relatively higher than peer banks
Estimate that this could improve ICICI's LCR by 40% ppts excluding overseas b/s impact (all else equal), further strengthening its relatively favourable starting liquidity position.
Raise EPS estimates by 0.4%-3% over next three year
@CNBCTV18Live @_RituSingh @Nigel__DSouza

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

CLSA on HAL
O-P, TP Rs 5481
DAC approved procurement of purchase of 138 Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH) from HAL.
This order should add 13% to HAL’s US$27bn backlog, apart from adding US$600m in cash from advances.
Its decadal pipeline remains healthy at US$48bn
See start of Mk 1A deliveries (2H) and visibility on GE engine production deal as key catalysts.
HAL is cheapest pure-play defence stock despite its sector-leading position while it is trading at what view as a deserved premium to global aerospace peers given its Make-in-India pipeline & market access.

CLSA on Sansera
Initiate O-P, TP Rs 4954
Sansera is a manufacturer of complex, high-quality precision-forged and machined components
With c.84% of its revenue derived from auto segment (ICE+EV), & rest 16% coming from non-auto segments, primarily aerospace, defence, and semiconductor (ADS), believe ADS segment will be its primary growth engine, supported by a strong order book and India's increasing emergence as a viable aerospace manufacturing hub for OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers
In addition, ADS business is margin accretive and generates superior asset turns, which should improve Sansera's overall capital efficiency
Thus, expect EPS to more than double over next three years, underpinning view that Sansera is a compelling 2x in three years story.

CLSA on Adani Ports
O-p, TP Rs 2070
NDR takeaways
Its ports grew traffic 2x country rate over FY21-26 & it gained 300bps market share YoY.
Its FY31 plan for 1bt traffic implies a Cagr of 15% & five-year revenue and port Ebitda Cagrs of 17% and 18% by FY31.
Extension into logistics & its M&As have paid off, with logistics, marine & international ports Ebitda up 34%, 125% and 180% in FY26 YoY, adding new growth catalysts
CEO highlighted its international expansion will be well within guard rails of financial prudence & are likely support its high ROCE while driving growth & dollarize its asset base
Credit ratios have also improved with nine-year low net debt/Ebitda.

@CNBCTV18Live

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Nomura on GE Vernova
Buy, TP raised to Rs 6000
Landmark HVDC order win enhances long-term growth outlook
HVDC order win with an estimated value of INR130bn a major positive catalyst
Estimate FY26-29F PAT CAGR of 31%
Raise FY28F/29F revenue by 4%/9% as HVDC order win comes in as a positive surprise
Stock is currently trading at 39x FY29F EPS of Rs111

CITI on GE Vernova
CO has won the Power Grid order for an 800kV HVDC LCC station (2×3,000 MW) on Barmer II–South Kalamb corridor
Expect revenue recognition from FY29, driving 25% upside to prior FY29 EBITDA and EPS estimates
Had expected Hitachi Energy India to win, given its higher local content share in LCC-based HVDC & execution bandwidth; close +ve catalyst watch
GE Vernova – Buy – TP Rs 5400
Hitachi – Buy, TP cut to Rs 42000
@CNBCTV18Live

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

HSBC on Chola Invest
Buy, TP Rs 2140
Management reiterated its strong growth outlook for FY27 with several vehicle segments, CSEL likely to drive AUM growth
CIFC was optimistic about delivering better than expected net credit losses, & maintaining a PBT ROTA of 3.5% in FY27
Overall, for FY27e, CIFC appeared optimistic about AUM growth, lower credit costs and stable ROTA

HSBC on Voda Idea
Reduce, TP Rs 8.25
Operating cash flows to fall short of spectrum payment obligations in FY29e, despite assuming tariff hike in 1QCY27
Network investment plan to stabilise market share, but unlikely to drive market share gains
Vi needs to increase its operating cash flow (3x in three years) in order to meet its spectrum payment obligations.
Whereas, forecast co’s EBITDA to grow by c15% CAGR over FY26- 29e, primarily driven by a mobile tariff hike in 1QCY27e
Further, Vi also needs additional capital for spectrum renewals starting from 2030
Think Vi’s inability to fund its spectrum payment obligations via operating cash flows will remain an overhang on stock
@CNBCTV18Live @Reematendulkar

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Jefferies on Defence
Believe India defence spend should see a double-digit CAGR in the medium-term in the background of global geopolitical tensions.
Private sector companies particularly have visible growth prospects north of 20% backed by government focus on domestic manufacturing and building the private sector supply chain
Initiate Buy on Solar Industries – TP Rs 28160 & Astra Microwave – TP Rs 2055
Initiate hold on Bharat Dynamics – TP Rs 1280

MOSL on Defence
India’s Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) has approved Acceptance of Necessity (AoNs) for various acquisition proposals worth INR1.1t for Army, Navy, and Air Force
Approvals focus on battlefield mobility, mine warfare, CBRN protection, electronic warfare, surveillance and naval propulsion, with 98% of total AoNs earmarked for the Indian industry
So far in FY27, DAC has given approvals worth INR1.62t. Over FY25-YTDFY27, approvals worth INR13t have been accorded for Indian defense sector, which enhances TAM of domestic players. Moreover, the government has been taking steps to open missile production to Indian private players
These initiatives improve order inflow visibility for the defense sector. In the near to medium term, finalization of large tenders for defense PSUs should be keenly watched out for
Maintain Bharat Electronics (BEL) as preferred pick

DAM Cap on Defence Sector
Project wise list of potential beneficiaries
· CBRN Recce Vehicles: Vehicles for detection, identification and marking of CBRN-contaminated areas. Beneficiary: BEL
· High Mobility Vehicles (HMV):All-terrain vehicles for troop/logistics movement and carriage of radars, missiles and specialised equipment. Beneficiary: BEML
· Mechanical Mine Layer (MML):Automated system for rapid laying and burying of anti-tank mines. Beneficiary: Godrej Precision Engineering
· Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH): Indigenous 5.5-tonne multi-role helicopter for transport, logistics, surveillance and armed missions. Beneficiary: HAL
· Trawl Tanks: Tank-mounted mine-breaching system to clear minefields and create safe lanes for armoured formations. Beneficiary: BEML.
· SARVATRA Bridge System: Mobile multi-span bridge system for crossing rivers, canals and other obstacles; designed for heavy military formations. Beneficiary: BEML + L&T
· Arudhra Radar: Indigenous 4D phased-array radar for aerial surveillance, detection and tracking. Beneficiary: BEL.
· Marine Gas Turbine (MGT):Indigenous marine gas-turbine propulsion/power system for naval vessels, aimed at reducing import dependence. Beneficiary: Bharat Forge
· Ground-Based Multi-Purpose Jammer (GBMPJ):Ground-based electronic-warfare system designed to jam adversary radars/electromagnetic systems. Beneficiary: BEL, Astra Microwave, Data Patterns etc.
· DEFSAC System: RFID-based secure smart-card and access-control system replacing paper-based defence IDs, passes and permits. Beneficiary: BEL – Potential
· Aircraft, Transport Fleet & Helicopter Upgrades: Various proposals to enhance the war-fighting capability of fighter aircraft, transport aircraft and helicopters through upgrades and capability enhancement. Beneficiary: HAL, BEL etc.
@CNBCTV18Live

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

Nomura on Life Insurance
In Aug 2026, private India life insurers’ individual annualized premium equivalent (APE) was up 15% y-y (on a soft base of 1%), supported by volume
growth of 8% y-y (on a base of -2%)
On a total APE basis, private players witnessed growth of 12% y-y (on a base of 11%) in Aug-26
For covered life insurers, total APE growth in Aug 2026 was fastest for ICICI Life at 23% y-y (on a negative base of 9%) followed by HDFC Life at 18% y-y & SBI Life at 16%
y-y.
Axis Max Life (unlisted; in which Max F owns an 80.98% stake) had a relatively soft month at 9% y-y
Distribution reforms still remain a key trigger for sector

Jefferies on Groww
Buy TP Rs 240
India's margin trading facility (MTF) has grown 2x in last 2 years
Nonetheless, it is 1.1x of cash ADTO, smaller than developed markets
See India's MTF book growing at 24% CAGR till FY30e, 1.3x Cash ADTO.
Groww's 3% MTF share is expected to become 5% by FY29e, leading to 14% rev contribution vs 5% in FY26.
Brokers are managing risk by limiting leverage in less traded stocks, hence Nifty 500 share in MTF has risen ~300bps over last year.

CLSA on Oil & Gas
Spike in global refining spreads of diesel and ATF to stratospheric levels is neatest sign of extreme demand-supply tightness in oil market
This has been fuelled by war-related unplanned closures in Russia as well as the Middle East along with sharp cuts in Chinese exports
Supply model shows very small new capacity additions in 2026 while maintenance shutdowns in US may impact flows at a time when inventory of key refined products is at multi-year lows
While some cool-off in spreads from sky-high levels cannot be ruled out as China and other exporters raise exports, expect global refining spreads to stay strong for multiple quarters. Reliance’s export refinery could see gains from this tightness.
@CNBCTV18Live

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

CITI On Gas Co
Gov’t has revised the HP/HT gas allocation mechanism for future auctions, which think should benefit larger CGDs like IGL & MGL.
Under new formula, HP/HT gas allocation will be linked to a CGD’s absolute requirement, calculated as the shortfall between CNG + domestic PNG consumption and its utilisation of APM + NWG gas in preceding quarter
Previously, available HP/HT volumes were distributed equally among all eligible bidding CGDs, rather than in proportion to their actual requirement, resulting in smaller CGDs receiving the same allocations as larger ones
Revised methodology better aligns allocations with actual gas requirements & should improve access to cheaper gas for large CGDs.
Coupled with recent retail price hikes by CGDs, which are likely to provide support to margins, believe the sector is well positioned from a medium-term perspective
Gas value chain pecking order: MGL, IGL, GAIL, GEL, PLNG.

@CNBCTV18Live @sonalbhutra

[Nimesh Shah @nimeshscnbc]

GS on LTM
Neutral, TP Rs 3870
Management meet Key takeaways
(i) LTM expects revenue growth this year to be similar to last year, with 3Q likely stronger than 2Q;
(ii) BFSI vertical is seeing month-on-month improvement and challenges in the company's tech vertical are now behind;
(iii) LTM highlighted a few pockets of demand pressure for the industry from AI, but highlighted various other growth areas
(iv) LTM expects EBIT margins to improve in FY27.
LTM expects revenue growth this year to be similar to last year, which implies a c.2% CQGR for rest of the year
LTM mentioned it was able to improve profitability last year despite headwinds, and expects to further improve organic margins in FY27
Co expects its announced acquisition of Randstad to be integrated in 3QFY27.

GS on TBO Tek
Buy, TP Rs 1800
Management meet Key takeaways
(i) TBO aspires to grow gross profit at 20%+ over the medium term, with a faster EBITDA growth;
(ii) Co views its moat in aggregating travel demand from a long tail of travel agents, which is different vs some of its competitors
(iii) TBO helps customers book complex and high value itineraries, and consumers here lean towards supported travel (less susceptible to disruption).
@CNBCTV18Live

[Shail Bhatnagar @shail_bhatnagar]

MARKET COMMENTARY
7/9/26: MONDAY
Oil is strong. Bond Yields in an uptick
US Jobs data is strong. Fears of a rate hike persist
Nifty unlikely to go anywhere. Buy the dip towards 23,775.
23,950-24,000 is strong resistance
Focus on Small cap sector, Intense bullishness.

STRENGTH: SMALLCAP 100,250,50. METAL. FINSERV INDICES
BULLISH CROSSOVER: HOUSING, DEFENCE, CONSUMPTION, RURAL, PSE
STRONG STOCKS: CUB, GLAND, RBLBANK, WOCKPHARMA
CANHLIFE, CGCL, IFCI, NIACL, GICRE URBANCO