Manthan Research & Advisory

SEBI Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) - INA200005109
Tweets are not recommendations. Any analysis / information / insight is for education / learning only.

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Trade Deal Gridlocked.

Game of Chess

[Bharat Jain @bharathajain]

India - US deadlock is now out in open. First reps & ministers traded barbs, now Industrialists are commenting. Watching with popcorn

FYI - cost of starlink in those areas would be 15-20% of their per capita income (ref cost of starlink in BD). BTW how has Tesla fared in India?

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Nifty50

Beginning of 9th weekly Red on trot

Which sigma event is this ? 🙄😀

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

During 2025 SCO summit Gold did a gap-up and never looked back

During 2026 SCO summit Oil did a gap-up.

Just saying 😀

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

₹ The Rupee

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Will 2026 be the year of #Copper ?

[Sahil Kapoor @SahilKapoor]

India has a superior long term track record (In USD terms for 30 years, in 21st century) over almost all markets.

India's underperformance vs other markets during Oil led scare isn't new. Take a look at the table.

India vs EM
The key signal. India historically dominates this comparison. The current reversal is meaningful. India has usually been the quality compounder within EM. That shows up repeatedly across the table.

But the latest gap is exceptional:
India: -9.5%
EM: +29.3%
This is the cleanest monitorable. If India starts narrowing the gap versus EM, it may signal that the valuation and earnings preference for India is returning.

After such phases of underperformance, outperformance probability improves.

India vs US
Less diagnostic on its own. India has lagged the US in many long windows before. So, India trailing the US is not, by itself, a structural red flag.

The US has had a long-running advantage from earnings quality, mega-cap technology, and dollar strength.

What is unusual now is the scale of the latest gap:
India vs S&P since Oct-24: -27.9 ppt

India vs KOSPI
The most dramatic regime indicator. The recent Korea gap is extreme and worth watching for either exhaustion or persistence.

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

52W ratio Chart.

Broader market (CNX500) did well during the underlined (RED) period. Will History repeat itself.

Risk Recency Bias.

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Been a while since we have seen such a front page financial headline

#USDINR

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Nifty momentum at it’s lowest since March 2020

Nifty50 Weekly RSI this low was last seen in March 2020 and before that in Aug 2011 and Dec 2008

#Nifty50

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

#Brent #WTI #Nymex

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Oil prices trend in different conflicts. Tend to settle in few days to weeks from conflict #Crudeoil

https://t.co/mq8J63oQEA

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Global markets need liquidity breather war just is a pretext

#Nifty #SPX500

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Very Interesting tit-bit from PPFAS advisor meet. The amount of paper supply (Issues/IPO etc) at different levels of N50 is extraordinary. @ 27K it’s 2L cr , another level is 4L cr…

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

https://t.co/8TrNj0rWSG

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

https://t.co/fJFh8X2Vdj

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Stat - Five red weeks on trot in CNX500 was in Feb-Mar 2020

However between Jan 2018 & Jul 2019 saw 3 such instances (continuous 5 or more of red weeks)

#CNX500

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

INDIAVIX rising 7 days in a row without any upcoming event.

Instances of VIX rising >7D Since 2014

1. Apr 2014 - 8D - Election
2. Apr 2015 - 9D - Non Event
3. May 2018 - 8D - Elections
4. Mar 2020 - 9D - Covid
5. Mar 2023 - 7D - US Bank crisis
6. Apr 2024 - 13D - Election

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

If all central banks collude #Gold could see time and price correction

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

How about some consolidation in #Gold ??

[Manthan Research & Advisory @ManthanResearch]

Oil prices trend in different conflicts. Tend to settle in few days to weeks from conflict #Crudeoil

https://t.co/mq8J63oQEA