Project Eleven Awards 1 BTC Q-Day Prize for Largest Quantum Attack on Elliptic Curve Cryptography to Date
Researcher breaks 15-bit ECC key on publicly accessible quantum hardware in a 512x jump from the previous public demonstration.
Project Eleven today awarded the Q-Day Prize, a one Bitcoin bounty, to Giancarlo Lelli for breaking a 15-bit elliptic curve key on a publicly accessible quantum computer. The result is the largest public demonstration to date of the attack class that threatens Bitcoin, Ethereum, and over $2.5 trillion in ECC-secured digital assets.
"The resource requirements for this type of attack keep dropping, and the barrier to running it in practice is dropping with them," said @apruden08, CEO of Project Eleven. "The winning submission came from an independent researcher working on cloud-accessible hardware. No national lab, no private chip. It shows that tangible progress is possible and highlights the urgency to migrate to post-quantum cryptography sooner rather than later. Google just committed to being quantum-secure by 2029. The window to get ahead of this is closing.”
Lelli derived a private key from its public key across a search space of 32,767 using a variant of Shor’s algorithm. Shor's targets the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem (ECDLP), the math underlying the digital signature schemes securing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most blockchains.
Quantum attacks on ECC have moved from theory to practice over the last seven months. Steve Tippeconnic's 6-bit demonstration in September 2025 was the first public break on quantum hardware. Lelli's 15-bit result extends it by a factor of 512.
Theoretical resource estimates for a full 256-bit attack, the scale Bitcoin operates at, have fallen sharply over the same period. Google's April 2026 whitepaper put the requirement at under 500,000 physical qubits. A subsequent paper from Caltech and Oratomic brought that figure as low as 10,000 qubits in a neutral-atom architecture.
Lelli's result is the practical counterpart to those optimizations. The distance from 15 bits to 256 bits is large, but the gap is increasingly viewed as an engineering problem and not a fundamental physics problem.
Roughly 6.9 million Bitcoin sit in wallets whose public keys are visible on-chain, exposing them to quantum attack. All blockchains using ECC share similar risks with vulnerable assets.
Project Eleven is developing its next challenge, focused on the intersection of frontier AI models and quantum cryptanalysis.
1/ Project Eleven just awarded 1 BTC for "the largest quantum attack on ECC to date", a 17-bit elliptic curve key recovered on IBM Quantum hardware. I replaced the quantum computer with /dev/urandom. It still recovers the key.
...Check out the photo behind the Lone Wolf cigar box and the green dice on Mike McD's desk at 00:45. 📷🤩 Think you will appreciate. 🙏 #worm#mikemcd#rounders
@RealKidPoker Been in Dublin playing the Irish Open (a storied event on the circuit, you would 💚 if you have not yet played), re-watching Rounders for the 1000x. In the moody opening seq ("if you can't spot the sucker..." etc), I suddenly notice a detail I have never ever...🧵
I’m saying this publicly so it becomes real. My new side quest goal is to create a Bitcoin only Super Bowl commercial in the next two years that unites the community and Bitcoin only companies.
@Gemini locked my card for overseas use (I checked their AOO prior to ensure compliance and they still shut it down). 5x attempts at support from their awful customer service: Unanswered. Card still locked. 0/10 DNR! Already in line for the Coinbase card. @tyler@cameron
Food price gouging in Vegas is a great example of short term thinking and missing the forest for the trees.
Businesses learned that visitors to vegas, especially staying on the strip, are essentially captured, just like travelers past the security gate at the airport. So you can mark up prices on these captured customers because alternatives are slim to none. Except people have to fly, but they don’t have to go to vegas.
Hey let’s also remove fridges from rooms to force people to buy food on property even more! Mark up resort fees, parking, take away comps, what else??
This is a pencil pushing unimaginative MBA’s wet dream. Tap every penny out of a resource that you can, without thinking of long term consequences. Companies that don’t let product people make user centric decisions will always devolve into something like this.
This worked for a while, as people had trips planned to vegas months to a year ahead. Travelers also didn’t know how expensive everything had really gotten in vegas.
Well now the cat is out of the bag, and literally no one wants to get fleeced in vegas anymore, and these businesses have killed their real cash cow: gambling, by trying to fleece their customers on literally everything else.
They tried to show that revenue was being diversified when food and hotel revenue was catching up to gaming. But this is just pencil pushing numbers around while trying to squeeze more money out of customers they don’t really have, while not improving the product at all.
This period of vegas will be studied in business schools, but the MBAs aren’t going to learn anything from it anyway.
Now that the budget bill has passed Congress, we can see what the projections look like for deficits, government debt, and debt service expenses. In brief, the bill is expected to lead to spending of about $7 trillion a year with inflows of about $5 trillion a year, so the debt, which is now about 6x of the money taken in, 100 percent of GDP, and about $230,000 per American family, will rise over ten years to about 7.5x the money taken in, 130 percent of GDP, and $425,000 per family. That will increase interest and principal payments on the debt from about $10 trillion ($1 trillion in interest, $9 trillion in principal) to about $18 trillion (of which $2 trillion is interest payments), which will lead to either a big squeezing out (and cutting off) of spending and/or unimaginable tax increases, or a lot of printing and devaluing of money and pushing interest rates to unattractively low levels. This printing and devaluing is not good for those holding bonds as a storehold of wealth, and what’s bad for bonds and US credit markets is bad for everyone because the US Treasury market is the backbone of all capital markets, which are the backbones of our economic and social conditions. Unless this path is soon rectified to bring the budget deficit from roughly 7% of GDP to about 3% by making adjustments to spending, taxes, and interest rates, big, painful disruptions will likely occur.
Just one lifetime ago in the United States, our grandfathers could buy a home, buy a car, have 3 to 4 children, keep their wives at home, take annual vacations, and then retire… all on one middle-class salary. What happened?