MarcoBerg

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@Biohazard3737 Investors are judged on returns. What’s Big Pharma track record on capital allocation? Compounded Return on r&d Investment over past 10-20 yrs (as a group)? Looks very mediocre in imo. You don’t become ceo because you Excel at capital allocation.

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@gregoryblotnick Buffett would probably spend more time being comfortable with the growth of the business, it’s returns and growth durability rather than building a dcf o whatever model

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@gregoryblotnick They’re just guesses, you should use with judgement. B. is for “predictable” companies and woundn’t work if growth not constant, especially if high, and multiples change (usually contract). Adjust for mult compression for a better model, but still a guess.

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@AndreasSteno Pretty pathetic for a bubble

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ContrarianCurse Dispersion/correlation trading? There are plenty of deriv desks doing it for a living.
There’s even an index: https://t.co/f3vtoDGhPJ
Other than this, 30-40% of the S&P vol is probably due to tech/hyperscalers/semis so, yes, you might get cheap exposure to either tail

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@A_May_MD Tells you a lot about how good capital allocators these people are…

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@FratellidItalia Schedatura biometrica di tutti gli arrivi irregolari, espulsione e divieto perpetuo di ingresso in Italia e Europa. Se non si può fare cambiate leggi, trattati, tutto quello che c’è da fare.

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ContrarianCurse They need time to trade out of overhead resistance and won’t be parabolic anytime soon like in q2. MKSI great company and not expensive, but tends to trade crazy.

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@Biohazard3737 For the bubble related to arguably the most important innovation in our lifetime it looks pretty pathetic. Nothing like 2000 yet. I was there, things were a lot crazier.

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ContrarianCurse Semicap valuations are now not really stupid. I would expect a bit more exuberance for the bubble linked to the most important innovation in our lifetime.

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ContrarianCurse € 19.5bn mkt cap 😬

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ContrarianCurse @DragulaCapital Still do don’t get it, maybe because their leaders are semi outsiders

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@PythiaR 170.0x because.. why not?

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@Krokodil_V I don’t get why $ESI agreed to such a take under

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@Biohazard3737 The mullahs and hezbollah shut up only when you bomb them

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ContrarianCurse Atotech is like $ESI

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@AndrewRangeley @A_May_MD Ask him about his thoughts on big pharma returns on internal r&d (IRRs, fully loaded, incl. all overheads). Estimates vary hugely from 5% to 10-12% (from value destructive to mediocre). Are acquisitions and business development a better allocation of capital for these companies?

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ContrarianCurse I love semicap, but not sure how you can make a decent return over the next 10yrs from here.

[MarcoBerg @MarcoBe83242064]

@ideapharma IRRs on R&D investment by company over last 10 years would be more interesting / shed more light on their capital allocation. Some of these companies generated mediocre total shareholders’ returns for the past 10, 15, 20 years.