A J Foret

AJ — investor & newsletter author focused on commodity cycles, value plays, and options.

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

@philkellr How did you clean it up? Did you start over and reinstalled the application?

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

Thanks I’m looking forward to it. I bit the bullet and bought a Mac Mini M4 so it could have its own machine. Been reading and watching videos on the most secure set up and I’m thinking firewall and VPS on the mini. I’ve never really used a Mac as a desktop only a phone so there will be a learning curve there but hope to get it up this weekend.

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

Just downloaded @openclaw and spent the afternoon setting it up.
For anyone who hasn't heard of it — it's a self-hosted AI gateway that runs 24/7 on your own machine. Telegram bot, cron jobs, memory that compounds across sessions, custom skills.
Going to document the whole setup here as I go.
No hype. No "I made $10K in a day." Just an honest look at what this thing actually does and how to make it work.
Follow along if you're curious. ����

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

@snowball_cip @tushant_suneja @openclaw i'm not running it locally, i changed that from @witcheer. i'm currently running Claude haiku, sonnet and opus when i need them and also running gpt 5.4 and 5.4 mini

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

Adapted this afternoon on @openclaw. A few improvements worth sharing:
Built a 3-file compounding context layer — CURRENT.md, WATCHLIST.md, and a project STATUS file. Every cron reads priorities before searching, writes findings after. Each job starts smarter than the last.
Switched memory backend from qmd to builtin — OpenAI embeddings + sqlite-vec. 164 chunks indexed, vector search working, no external binary needed.
Added a voice corrections loop — every time I edit an AI draft, it extracts what changed and why, logs it, and reads those corrections before the next draft. Compounds over time.
6 crons, staggered clean, no overlaps. Your post made it click. Thank you @witcheer for a great, well written article. Keep up the good work!

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

The Oil Reset Is Here — Why We're Positioning Accordingly
Last week, the Strait of Hormuz closed. Not metaphorically. Literally. Ten million barrels per day — nearly 10% of global oil supply — shut in overnight.
Most traders saw volatility. I saw validation.
The Supply Math Doesn't Add Up
Here's what most people are missing: the world has no spare capacity to fill that gap. Non-OPEC production is in structural decline. Shale, deepwater, oil sands — all expensive, all stretched. When someone says "the market will solve this quickly," they're guessing. The production data says otherwise.
I've been tracking this for months. At $100/barrel, oil is historically cheap — and here's the proof: measured against gold (the real-value benchmark), crude currently sits at a 0.05 ratio. The historical average is 0.14. That's a 3x repricing just to reach average. And when supply gets this tight, markets don't settle for average. They overshoot.
The Domino Effect
When oil reprices to $200, $300, $500 per barrel — and I believe it will — the cascade is already visible:
Airlines are cutting flights. United announced reductions for spring/summer. That's not a strategy. That's triage.
Fertilizer transits the Strait. When it stops, farmers pay more. Then food costs more. Then everyone does.
Trucking and shipping costs spike exponentially. Every product on every shelf gets repriced upward.
Governments are already rationing. Japan, South Korea, Australia have told citizens to curtail nonessential travel. If that sounds familiar, it should.
This isn't demand destruction. It's supply destruction — with demand management forced in as a response. The distinction matters enormously for how you position.
Why This Matters for You
The last time the world saw this combination of supply shock and forced demand rationing was the 1970s. Equity markets cratered. Real assets — energy, commodities, hard resources — skyrocketed. Financial stocks and real estate got crushed. Hard asset owners feasted.
History doesn't repeat. But it rhymes loudly.
The big money is already rotating. Energy stocks are breaking out. Precious metals are consolidating — not crashing, consolidating. This is the accumulation phase before the repricing phase. The question isn't whether this plays out. It's whether you're positioned before it does.

https://t.co/NnIVDISc5B

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

@jvisserlabs nailed this — superb work. His macro call validates my playbook: disciplined commodity exposure (silver/miners + select energy/coal) financed with cash‑secured puts on IV spikes. Holding a software‑index put as a hedge. Link in bio for the checklist. His Youtube videos are a must watch every week.
https://t.co/TpApfntOvK

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

@great_martis Smart thread — strong parallels. Same playbook, different plumbing: central-bank backstops may blunt some drawdowns, but volatility remains — I’m positioned in silver/miners and using disciplined cash‑secured put-selling.

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

Want a practical playbook for financing share buys? Sell cash-secured puts on high-conviction miners during IV spikes. P/B <1, strong balance sheet, wait for IV spikes — follow the rules, not the noise.”
#oil #commodities #silver #preciousmetals #optionselling

https://t.co/03anomAfBj

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

Silver miners are getting wrecked. I'm getting paid. That's the system. Issue #3 on Substack now.
https://t.co/EDym2rAFdZ
#Silver #Commodities #Option

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

The real edge in put-selling isn’t the premium.
It’s:
stock selection
sizing
the 40-60% rule
and treating assignment as a planned outcome, not a mistake
That’s how I’ve closed 109 trades with a 100% win rate.
Today’s newsletter breaks down the process using real trades, real P/L, and full-cycle examples.

https://t.co/G6tfPypom4

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

The selloff in silver over the past 15 days has been one of the most extreme moves we’ve seen in history.

Only two other episodes are comparable:

One marked a major peak, the other a major bottom.

Personally, I have never seen a true peak in precious metals under conditions like these:

· Supply historically constrained
· The capex cycle still near record lows
· Large new discoveries virtually nonexistent
· Stagnant production
· No meaningful new projects coming online

More importantly, the entire industry still represents only ~1% of global equity markets.

Let’s dive into a few ideas:
https://t.co/8xmyRtAuIk

[Jordi Visser @jvisserlabs]

Everyone is talking about oil.

But oil is just the trigger.

The bigger story forming underneath markets is:

• Private credit stress
• AI-driven labor disruption
• Multiple compression in equities
• Rising global yields
• The transition to digital finance

This is not a normal macro cycle.

It’s a structural transition.

This week's Video: https://t.co/ab2xuDQ8lU

[Gold Ventures 🟡 @TheLastDegree]

1/ Bloodbath in gold miners today. Everyone's panicking.
$GDX down 31.5% from the highs

But let's put this in context — bull markets only.

Here's what history actually says about corrections in precious metals miners during gold bull markets. 🧵

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

This is a remarkable chart.

Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions.

Chart by @thierryborgeat

[Joseph Brown @heresyfinancial]

Gold is down 15% from its high, the day the war with Iran started

This is a signal

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

If you’ve ever wanted to buy a stock but didn’t know whether to buy now or wait for a dip, cash-secured puts solve that problem.
You either:
get paid and keep the premium, or
get assigned shares at a lower price you already wanted
I just finished a newsletter showing exactly how I use that system with real numbers
#Commodities #oil #Options

https://t.co/o4Q8d1yf6m

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

Most people sell puts the wrong way.
They chase fat premium, panic when a stock dips, and hold too long trying to squeeze out the last dollar.
I do the opposite.
That’s how I turned a “boring” $2.50 stock move into $1,254.
New newsletter goes out today.
#Oil #Commodities #Silver #Options
https://t.co/o4Q8d1yf6m

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

Most people think options are risky because they only see people using leverage and gambling.
That’s not how I use them.
I use cash-secured puts to get paid while waiting for stocks I already want to own.
My new newsletter breaks down the exact system with real trades and plain English.
#oil #Commodities #options

https://t.co/o4Q8d1yf6m

[A J Foret @Mardi69]

I’ve closed 109 options trades with a 100% win rate.
That sounds impossible. I know.
It’s not magic. It’s not luck. It’s a system.
I just finished writing tomorrow’s newsletter breaking down exactly how I do it — with real trades, real numbers, and the 4 rules that make it work.

#Options #Commodities #oil #chemicals

https://t.co/UDjtxizf8x