MF

Trader. Crypto Investor. Thoughts are my own.

[MF @MarketFella]

@CryptoMeags No different than April.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: President Trump says he has not cancelled his meeting with China's President Xi and he "might still" have the meeting.

Just hours ago, President Trump said he has "no reason" to meet with President Xi.

[MF @MarketFella]

This is no different than the original tariffs.

if you think a 100% tariff on China is permanent, or will be implemented as more than a threat, imo you are wrong.

The implications of this would be massive on the economy, and as we know Trump loves negotiating.

Negotiation piece. Not a bad place to slide the leverage bar.

[MF @MarketFella]

Filled support zone and re tested some lower TF Moving Averages. Sending out of support zone. Gives more bias to my ETH long. Moving stop loss higher and increasing position size. Doubling down on this bet.

[MF @MarketFella]

$ETH Updated view.

From a technical standpoint we are at a standstill. Have been accumulating beneath ATH prices and bouncing in between LTF levels.

Blue line is make or break area for me. If we break below and lose something like a 6hr MA, I would expect the lower parts of that support zone to be tested.

If we stay above black line we likely see higher prices.

However, from a market perspective, $ETH is not THE trade anymore. It is one, and the run up to 6-7k region will be a move to catch, but I believe there is opportunity farther down the risk curve.

$BTC has cooled down, $ETH is starting to cool down, and we are seeing increased attention in coins like $SOL, $HYPE, and even farther down in coins like $ENA and even $TAO.

imo the best trades at this point in the cycle are coming farther down the risk curve as majors like BTC, ETH, and eventually SOL cool down.

[MF @MarketFella]

@smileycapital Hate and criticism never comes from above. Always enjoyed ur content, enjoy the break sir.

[MF @MarketFella]

"September is bearish" 😂😂🫵🫵.

Still long and strong

[MF @MarketFella]

I refused to be bearish because we failed to lose any HTF trend/structure on my glorious $ETH. Keep it simple.

If you turned bearish because price dropped by ~10% after rallying ~40% in the month of August I am laughing at you, especially if you used "September is bearish" as confluence.

[MF @MarketFella]

This little write up was extreme alpha and it is a shame it only has 41 views😂

[MF @MarketFella]

Shifting my market view, especially on on-chain plays.

$ETH is still bound for 6k-7k EOY. This obviously brings onchain plays up with it.

HOWEVER, we are at a point now where returns are diminishing. There are too many coins, too many projects, too many "teams" etc. We are too diluted with projects, even with fundamentally strong teams.

The only actionable scenario I see playing out is the strongest, most qualified teams, with ACTUAL experience (think high level ex tradfi, engineer, CEO or any variant, etc.) will see the most speculation.

The whole thesis for $ETH and on-chain to appreciate in value was because exhaustion kicked in post big meme and corresponding pump-fun era. People would want to speculate on real teams creating value, not extracting.

We watched as $ETH went from 1600 to ATH, bringing those original fundamentally strong coins up with it. Now we have a lot more teams who are 1) yes doxxed and not serial ruggers who want to build actual use case and 2) probably focusing too much on saturated ideas and sectors within on chain (do we really need more AI agents and chatbots? Do we really need more Dex's? Swap protocols?)

The hype is starting to, and eventually will, more aggressively leave these coins due to underperformance and saturation.

The only destination in my mind is the few select coins that have an insanely qualified team with previous success in their respected careers.

The bets that stand out to me are $OVPP and $eMDR. I see these as the originals and first movers, and i'm sure opportunities will arise down the risk curve before this meta too becomes saturated.

Will do a deep dive into both this weekend.

Happy Friday

[MF @MarketFella]

@cousincrypt0 Not sure how we got here, it's pretty clear where this takes us.

[MF @MarketFella]

@smileycapital Prioritize silly goose time

[MF @MarketFella]

$ETH Updated view.

From a technical standpoint we are at a standstill. Have been accumulating beneath ATH prices and bouncing in between LTF levels.

Blue line is make or break area for me. If we break below and lose something like a 6hr MA, I would expect the lower parts of that support zone to be tested.

If we stay above black line we likely see higher prices.

However, from a market perspective, $ETH is not THE trade anymore. It is one, and the run up to 6-7k region will be a move to catch, but I believe there is opportunity farther down the risk curve.

$BTC has cooled down, $ETH is starting to cool down, and we are seeing increased attention in coins like $SOL, $HYPE, and even farther down in coins like $ENA and even $TAO.

imo the best trades at this point in the cycle are coming farther down the risk curve as majors like BTC, ETH, and eventually SOL cool down.

[MF @MarketFella]

Shifting my market view, especially on on-chain plays.

$ETH is still bound for 6k-7k EOY. This obviously brings onchain plays up with it.

HOWEVER, we are at a point now where returns are diminishing. There are too many coins, too many projects, too many "teams" etc. We are too diluted with projects, even with fundamentally strong teams.

The only actionable scenario I see playing out is the strongest, most qualified teams, with ACTUAL experience (think high level ex tradfi, engineer, CEO or any variant, etc.) will see the most speculation.

The whole thesis for $ETH and on-chain to appreciate in value was because exhaustion kicked in post big meme and corresponding pump-fun era. People would want to speculate on real teams creating value, not extracting.

We watched as $ETH went from 1600 to ATH, bringing those original fundamentally strong coins up with it. Now we have a lot more teams who are 1) yes doxxed and not serial ruggers who want to build actual use case and 2) probably focusing too much on saturated ideas and sectors within on chain (do we really need more AI agents and chatbots? Do we really need more Dex's? Swap protocols?)

The hype is starting to, and eventually will, more aggressively leave these coins due to underperformance and saturation.

The only destination in my mind is the few select coins that have an insanely qualified team with previous success in their respected careers.

The bets that stand out to me are $OVPP and $eMDR. I see these as the originals and first movers, and i'm sure opportunities will arise down the risk curve before this meta too becomes saturated.

Will do a deep dive into both this weekend.

Happy Friday

[MF @MarketFella]

@CryptoMeags This is game

[MF @MarketFella]

@CryptoMeags @OpenVPP @circle It only makes sense for money to flow into doxxed fundamentally strong tokens post pumpfun and vaporware era. Degen mania is done.

[MF @MarketFella]

@TraderMercury comfy in longs

[MF @MarketFella]

@TraderMercury haven't even lost local trends lol

[MF @MarketFella]

I refused to be bearish because we failed to lose any HTF trend/structure on my glorious $ETH. Keep it simple.

If you turned bearish because price dropped by ~10% after rallying ~40% in the month of August I am laughing at you, especially if you used "September is bearish" as confluence.

[MF @MarketFella]

Easiest thing to do when CT fearmongers and turns bearish is to just sign off and develop your own perspective.

It's funny how 1 green day and everyone is calling for higher again.

[MF @MarketFella]

@smileycapital banger