@robinhanson The denial of this reality is surprisingly common but it’s just math. “Modern” industrial societies are reproducing below replacement rate. Groups like Hasidim, trad Caths, Mormons, Muslims, etc. are reproducing well above replacement value. Doesn’t take long to tip the scales.
During Covid I started a habit of journaling every day a la “morning pages,” 3 handwritten pages every morning, and I was super consistent. I think over 3 years I missed 3-4 days. Toward the end of the third year I realized I had over 1,000 pages and I suddenly felt… guilty.