$PATH (UiPath) trades at $10.53 and almost everyone's ignoring it.
Here's what they're missing:
- First profit in company history, just posted
- $130M in free cash last quarter ALONE
- $1.3B in net cash nearly 1/4 of the whole company's value
- 82% gross margins
- Revenue still growing 17%
Now the part that should make you sit up:
Wall Street's target is $14 a polite +33%.
My work (DCF + sales + earnings multiples, blended) lands at $27.
That's +156% from here. Bull case: $30. +185%.
And it's sitting near its 52-week LOW while I say this.
The one catch I won't hide: this only works if ARR growth
reaccelerates. The market wants proof before it pays up
that's exactly why it's still this cheap.
But think about the setup: a profitable, net-cash, 82%-margin
software leader, on sale, while everyone looks away.
You don't get asymmetry like this when a stock is popular.
You get it when it's hated.
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$NVO Novo Nordisk profit, last 3 years: up 62%.
Free cash flow over the same stretch: down 61%.
Quarterly capex went from $3.7b to $13.5b.
What am I missing?
$ADBE last 3 years:
Revenue +35%
Free cash flow +38%
Stock -48%
Which means you’re now paying 62% Less for every dollar of cash this Company produces than you were in 2023.
Not a single down quarter in there.
everyone in that chart is spending like this. the difference is they’re spending money they already made.
Oracle didn’t have it. and it wasn’t going to sit this one out, so it borrowed $43bn to do it.
that’s the risk. not the number on the chart.
I still think the capex will pay off.
everyone in that chart is spending like this. the difference is they’re spending money they already made.
Oracle didn’t have it. and it wasn’t going to sit this one out, so it borrowed $43bn to do it.
that’s the risk. not the number on the chart.
I still think the capex will pay off.