Mark Cunningham

Poll Director at Overton Insights

[Aron Goldman @ArgoJournal]

.@OvertonInsights 2028 GOP Primary Poll

JD Vance 39%
Marco Rubio 32%
Ron DeSantis 9%
Josh Hawley 4%
Nikki Haley 4%
Tom Cotton 2%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Donald Trump Jr 0%
Ted Cruz 0%
Vivek Ramaswamy 0%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 0%
Glenn Youngkin 0%
Someone else 3%
Undecided 6%

May 16-20

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@barbour_mike @allcapszoom @overtoninsights @ErlineP Polling is the #1 piece that goes into prediction markets

[Overton Insights 📊 @overtoninsights]

Preview our May 2026 National Poll results (Full poll dropping tomorrow!) by @MabintyQ

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@allcapszoom @overtoninsights @ErlineP It's also important to remember that betting markets are predictive, while polling is a snapshot in time.

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@J456287 @overtoninsights @ErlineP Yes, we were just talking about polls from 2026

[Keith @KeithArbitrary1]

I don't know anything about Overton Insights but this rings true.

[Polling USA @USA_Polling]

That's two pollsters from today showing Harris at 9-10%, which is where I think she's actually at and not these 30%+ polls

[Overton Insights 📊 @overtoninsights]

WOW. In a head to head primary matchup, Rubio leads Vance by 6 points, despite Vance leading in the overall Republican primary.

@marcorubio - 42%
@JDVance - 36%

Full poll: https://t.co/YGVZFtcOEG
480 Republican Primary Voters
MOE 2.6% | May 16 - May 20

[Polling USA @USA_Polling]

Trump Approval Polling:

🟠 Disapprove: 58%
🟢 Approve: 32%

Overton Insights / May 20, 2026

[Overton Insights 📊 @overtoninsights]

Vance holds a fragile lead in the Republican primary, and @MarkthePollGuy discusses why this is a competitive race...

Vance - 39%
Rubio - 32%
DeSantis - 9%

[Overton Insights 📊 @overtoninsights]

Overton Insights Poll Director @MarkthePollGuy explains the most controversial poll results in our new poll: if voters felt recent attempts on President Trump's life were either GENUINE OR STAGED

[Overton Insights 📊 @overtoninsights]

Perhaps the most SURPRISING result of our poll: Overton Insights Poll Director @MarkthePollGuy talks about Pete Buttigieg edging out a lead in the 2028 Democratic primary:

Buttigieg - 16%
Newsom - 13%
AOC - 12%
Harris - 9%
Sanders - 9%

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@irishzorro2010 @j_fishback He was never once up in the polls

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@SpencerKeele @Callystarr Statistically, he may be, but anyone who has watched both plays knows it isn't even close. The shot difficulty was substantially different, and Boozer was often left open from three.

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@Dwdwdwdw112233 @Callystarr Haha you are right on that

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@Callystarr Not only is it not a fantasy, I'd even call him a slight favorite

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

@adelethelaptop @abbythelibb_ Why does anyone make anything up? The Tuttle Twins have sold 7 million copies and has been around for years; if she hasn't bought it yet, she likely was never going to buy it. She likely disagrees with Connor on an election happening today, and wants to hurt his business.

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

The highest quality pollster in this race has been @QuantusInsights, whose last poll had @EdGallrein +8 over @RepThomasMassie and nearly all the movement in the polls has moved towards Gallrein in the last month.

[Mark Cunningham @MarkthePollGuy]

Huge vote for the future of the Republican party today. @Polymarket has @EdGallrein as the slightest of favorites, and polls have been all over the place. Anyone predicting this with any degree of confidence is lying or has a horse in the race.