markus 🦅🟠

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Wall Street is taking @HyperliquidX seriously - as an opportunity and a threat

I think there are 3 factors that made it happen:

1. Hyperliquid enables round-the-clock trading of TradFi assets when traditional markets are closed

2. Hyperliquid enables pre-IPO markets with impressive trading volumes and OI

3. Reliable and democratic infrastructure that allows it to happen.

“convenience store” is becoming a department store.

perps. commodities. pre-IPO. outcomes. one venue. 24/7.

that’s the vision: house of all finance. and it’s getting closer

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Pre-IPO markets on @HyperliquidX - how a new $1.12B asset class emerged in 90 days.

@SpaceX. @OpenAI. @AnthropicAI. @cerebras. Accessible 24/7 on @tradexyz and @ventuals.

From a wallet.

Full breakdown below ↓

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Pre-IPO markets on @HyperliquidX, June 1:

SPCX · $61.6M OI · $205 (↑41% in 4 days)
ANTHROPIC · $8.74M OI · $1,551
QNT · $4.14M OI · $99
OPENAI · $3.46M OI · $1,352
Total: $80.5M open interest.

SpaceX IPO: June 12. 11 days.

CBRS peaked at $58M OI the day it resolved. SPCX is already at $61.6M - and still climbing. Trade it on @Markets_xyz: https://t.co/A6tAIAcEeT

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Cerebras @cerebras IPO'd 12 days ago. Traders didn't go home.

They rotated into SpaceX.

I analyzed every pre-IPO perpetual on @HyperliquidX. Five markets, two deployers, $1.12B cumulative volume in 90 days in a category that did not meaningfully exist before March.

What the data shows, market by market:

→ CBRS (Cerebras · @tradexyz): proof of concept. Launched May 1. IPO day did $281M in volume - the single largest pre-IPO day in HIP-3 history. OI still sticky at $37M post-resolution.
→ SPCX (SpaceX · @tradexyz): the new flagship. Day 1 volume $54.5M. OI ramped $25M → $50M in seven days. Doing in 10 days what CBRS took three weeks to build.
→ ANTHROPIC (@ventuals): $7.5M OI · funding +58% annualized. Most-loved Ventuals name. Longs paying the highest premium in the category.
→ SPACEX (@ventuals): $4.5M OI on $72K daily volume. OI/vol = 62×.
→ OPENAI (@ventuals): $3.4M OI.

CBRS → SPCX isn't two trades. It's one trade in two parts. When Cerebras resolved on May 14, capital didn't leave the venue, it redeployed into SpaceX four days later.

@tradexyz captured 61% (~$43K) of Pre-IPO HIP-3 revenue, while @ventuals accounted for 39% (~$28K).

Three months ago, retail couldn't touch SpaceX without a $1M net worth and a broker relationship.

Today: a Hyperliquid account.

now Quantinuum $QNT is next Pre-IPO Perpetual (IPOP) Market on @tradexyz

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

new @Markets_xyz app update spotted 👀

real question though: what should Markets build next?

genuinely curious what's missing (prediction markets👀)

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

https://t.co/RPPmv8uG5A

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Hyperliquid testnet has its first HIP-4 market on a real-world event - not a crypto price. It's "Fed rate change in June."

The resolution rules are sharp. It settles "Change" if the Fed moves rates at the June 16-17 meeting, and "No Change" if rates hold or the meeting produces no decision. Moves between meetings don't count.

But here's the gap: the spec says what counts as a rate change - it doesn't say who posts the result on-chain, or whether there's a challenge window.

$BTC and $HYPE markets settle to @HyperliquidX own mark price, so they never needed an external oracle. A Fed decision can't do that. This is the first HIP-4 market where real-world resolution actually has to be solved - and the mechanism or oracle isn't public yet.

The one to watch: https://t.co/AfrUJxm1VJ

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

openai is filing for IPO @OpenAI

WSJ: confidential US IPO filing as early as friday, debut targeted for september. goldman + morgan stanley on it.

the timing is the whole story. musk lawsuit dismissed two days ago, the overhang blocking the for-profit conversion is gone. and they're filing the same day as @SpaceX .

last round $852B. CFO was guiding 2027, this is a real pull-forward. now a straight race with @AnthropicAI ($950B last round) to be the first genAI company public.

confidential filing isn't an S-1: no financials, september can slip. but two trillion-dollar names filing the same day forces every PM to price the cohort as a pair. the perp venues have done this for months. public markets just got the job.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

$HYPE outcome market is up on @HyperliquidX testnet.

Same template as the $BTC one, recurring daily binary, settles to the $HYPE mark price on HL.

First contract: HYPE above 28.18 at May 15, 00:00 UTC.

ticker: hype-above-2818-yes-may-15-0000

$BTC was the canonical first market on mainnet. $HYPE looks like #2.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Digital Asset Market Clarity Act clears senate banking committee today.

start at 14:30 UTC. final vote estimated 19:00–22:00 UTC.

309 pages. would lock the sec-cftc jurisdictional split into federal statute, beyond the reach of any future administration.

here's what it actually changes on-chain:

1. $BTC and $ETH become statutorily non-securities.

any token that anchored a spot etp before january 1, 2026 is permanently classified as a commodity. no future sec, no enforcement memo, no admin change can reverse it.

2. DeFi devs stop being money transmitters.

if you write open-source code, run a node, validate transactions, or build a non-custodial protocol and you don't hold user funds - you're not a money transmitter under federal law. period.

this is the provision that ends the prosecution model that hit tornado cash. it's also the one under attack in today's amendment fight. the only fight that matters right now.

3. stablecoin yield gets surgically split.

passive yield on usdc/usdt held on centralized exchanges - banned. cashback, market-making rebates, referrals, staking-style rewards, loyalty programs - all permitted.

defi smart-contract yield sits entirely outside the bill's scope. @pendle_fi, @aave, @ethena - none of DeFi touched. all the structural yield action moves on-chain.

4. US-domiciled token launches come back.

issuers can raise up to $75m per 12 months without full sec registration, conditioned on maturity progress. expect us-based ico structures by q4 2026.

5. the mature blockchain test: open source, functional, value derived from blockchain use, no person or group controls 20%+ of supply (@worldlibertyfi 👀👀👀)

$BTC and $ETH pass trivially. $SOL, $AVAX, $SUI sit in the gray zone - depends on how "common control" gets defined in joint sec/cftc rulemaking.

every foundation-controlled L1 has 4 years to redistribute supply. that's structural sell-side pressure across the long tail of L1s through 2029.

what the market is pricing: https://t.co/VZnxFfERkc

today is committee. then the senate floor (60 votes). then reconciliation with the house. then trump's desk by july 4 if the timeline holds.

the bill is moving. the only live fight is whether non-custodial dev protection survives the amendment process.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Ondo just bridged 250+ tokenized US stocks to @HyperliquidX via @felixprotocol and @LayerZero_Core

How I farm~39% APR, delta-neutral, on $GME

Funding rate on the $GME perp is currently +0.0091%/hour on @tradexyz (~78% APR)

Long the Ondo-tokenized $GME spot on HyperEVM, short the perp on Hypercore, capture the spread.

Same wallet. HyperEVM and Hypercore. 24/7.

https://t.co/87lSa0vlCP
https://t.co/g6yBM6CGbx

Hyperliquid stopped being a DEX. It's a 24/7 equity venue now.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Three resolution philosophies. Three trade-offs.

@HyperliquidX HIP-4 chose speed. Authorized oracle, minutes-bounded resolution. Fast.

@Polymarket UMA's optimistic oracle is slower but battle-tested across billions in disputed volume. 2 hours to 2 days.

@Kalshi's in-house committee is fast in the common case. Inscrutable in the edge case.

The honest framing: HIP-4's oracle architecture is the least specified part of the spec.

For $BTC daily binaries, the oracle is HyperCore's mark price.

For sports, elections, macro releases? The infrastructure has not been publicly designed.

That's the bet. Speed first, optionality later.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Three things only HIP-4 does:

→ Cross-margin with perps and spot

A long $BTC perp + a $BTC > $80k by Friday outcome contract sharing the same $USDH collateral. @Polymarket lives on Polygon. @Kalshi lives in a brokerage account.

→ On-chain end-to-end

Polymarket's V2 still matches off-chain. Kalshi has no chain at all. HIP-4 runs every step on @HyperliquidX: order, match, settle, oracle.

→ Permissionless deployment via burn-able stake

1M $HYPE, slashable, burned on slash. Up to 50% builder fee share. Phase 2 turns market creation into a deployable revenue line, not a curated listings function.

The trade-off: zero maker rebate (Polymarket pays makers 20–25%).

Free entry, paid exit. Nobody else does this.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Hyperliquid stopped being a crypto exchange this quarter

Q1 numbers:
→ 40% of HL OI is now HIP-3 → 52% of that is commodities

The biggest perp on HIP-3 markets in terms of volume in Q1 was silver. Revolutionary for @HyperliquidX

Full breakdown ↓
Data: @artemis

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

$22B in April.

11× in six months.

While @HyperliquidX was finalizing HIP-4, @Polymarket and @Kalshi quietly turned prediction markets into one of the fastest-growing categories in finance.

Sports drove Kalshi to $12B/month. Geopolitics carried Polymarket to $9.5B. On-chain venues are still underrepresented: @trylimitless cleared $356M.

This is the pool HIP-4 entered on May 2.

The category isn't speculative anymore. It's institutional-scale.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

“You miss 100% of shots you don’t take”

>be early
>try new things
>get rewarded for curiosity

https://t.co/y5paI08WUz

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

Took @kirbyongeo's HIP-4 ecosystem rundown and compiled it into a single visual map.

30+ services laid out by layer:

foundation rails → live frontends (7) → coming soon (10) → analytics & infra.

Full credit to him + @hypurr_co for the source thread.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

HIP-4 quietly enables synthetic options on @HyperliquidX

Want to bet BTC ends between $78k and $82k by Friday? Buy four cheap “yes/no” bets, one at each strike inside your range.

→ “BTC > $78k?” YES at $0.55
→ “BTC > $79k?” YES at $0.48
→ “BTC > $80k?” YES at $0.40
→ “BTC > $81k?” YES at $0.32

Total cost: $1.75. Each pays $1 if true.

If BTC ends at $80.5k → three bets win → +$1.25 profit
If BTC ends below $78k → all lose → -$1.75 max loss
If BTC ends above $81k → all win → +$2.25 max gain

Same shape as a call spread. Built from four binaries.

Polymarket can do this in theory. But each bet sits in a separate market with separate collateral, and you can’t cross-margin against a BTC perp.

HIP-4 puts all of it on one engine, one collateral pool, alongside your perp delta.

That’s how a binary book becomes an options surface.

[Petro D. | Research @PDmytriiev]

https://t.co/XhqwNKkd9m

[markus 🦅🟠 @markusogs]

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