Marvs Ghost

BTC.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@1914ad As niche of a topic bip110 seems, I do agree that bitcoin waters have been massively muddled and diverted into shitcoin securities and thus cexspools. Feels like theres funny money with bitcoin Treasury Companies. Digital credit narrative must be destroyed before we go higher.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@1hmle @Roughnecks110 What's the 180 on ColdCard about, what's the new recommendation?

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@_Checkmatey_ @zawy3 Could you expand on this, please?

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@_Checkmatey_ @BitFulci Unpopular opinion: Accretive dilution is retarded. Whole point of BTC is to not get diluted, yet some Bitcoiners convinced themselves dilution's actually good for them. The accretive part is the 'intelligent leverage', cheap debt they can sustainably take on at increasing scale.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@Silverback82804 @joshmacneel @1MarkMoss Yes, for Nov. 24 until recently, lol. What do you think 2025 poor price performance and sentiment was due to? What was everyone mad at Saylor for?

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@joshmacneel @1MarkMoss Taking on very little debt to grow stack is not impressive, because its primarily funded by diluting shareholders.

Debt/dilution is their speculative attack/defense ratio. You benefit primarily through their speculative attack.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@adkcurtis @AdamBLiv "MSTR issuing equity to turn mnav prem into btc/share = bad." "MTPL issuing equity to turn mnav prem into btc/share = good."

Comes down to equity buyers of high vol BTCTC's at a high prem exhausting and then selling off to pump smaller TC's in hopes others will fomo in after.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@LogicalBitcoinr @BitStrategy21 "Yield is the hard-number engine that management can actually control."

Incorrect. Continued buyers at a high prem to mnav provide the yield for equity issuers. They are diluting the prem you paid them. If retail stops buying after you, yield dies. It's circular justification.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@stef12345xyz @ActuallyClimber This. MSTR has a more robust and resilient strategy right now. Think how quickly retail turned on MSTR, and those same people somehow can't imagine sentiment shifting again.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@DogCandles @tnorth @hillery_dan @_adrian All BTC related instruments/companies will likely be depressed in bear. Sentiment driven Equity Issuance fairs worse than Term driven Credit Issuance.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@KIMMT37 @AdamBLiv Accretive if more buyers arrive to support mnav after you buy.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@FocusofForever @crisreed Leading indicator for Credit Issuers = Demand for credit instruments. Contrary to equity issuers, credit issuers supply an easily quantifiable, astronomically larger market (Fixed income vs Omega vol-seeking retail investors) of long term investors. All accretive to shareholders.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@FocusofForever @crisreed mNAV = Lagging indicator.
Bid Depth @ mNAV = Leading indicator for Equity Issuers.

Leading indicator for Equity Issuers is critical for predicting mNAV fuel exhaustion, but hard to quantify and thus completely overlooked by most.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@ryQuant @BitStrategy21 BTC Yield Buyers = Enriched through stories of lofty goals & sparkly short term metrics attracting finite amount of cosmically high vol seeking transient retail traders. Otherwise fully dilutive.

BTC Gain Buyers = Enriched by 400T of wealth buying our superior capital products.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@ryQuant @BitStrategy21 BTC Yield Buyers = Guys my fav nanocap stock I full ported my daughter's savings into wants to buy 2m BTC by EOY! I need more high mnav buyers to pump my bags!

BTC Gain Buyers = Moisturized, unbothered, bathing in our giant moat, selling valuable products to wealthy investors.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@AGratefulApe @ryQuant @BitStrategy21 Very few talking about this. Equity issuance reliant BTCTC very reminiscent to shitcoins. Valuable for small # trapped retail capital that can't access ETF/BTC/MSTR. Dilution only offset by future buyers of mega/ultra high vol retail buyers split by compt. Demand not guaranteed.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@AGratefulApe @ryQuant @BitStrategy21 Chasing BTC Yield sends you down the risk curve towards nano caps reliant on dilutive equity issuance, where your mnav return is based on growth hype fueling continued amounts of ultra high vol retail buyers to support mnav premium. Otherwise the dilution stalls share price.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@Comatose55 @ryQuant MSTR was getting stroked off HARD during the run, then all the sudden.. correction, then falling, then stalling. All despite BTC going up and Strategy stacking hundreds of thousands of BTC in short order. Why couldn't this happen with other BTCTCs? Lots of variables/dynamics.

[Marvs Ghost @marvsghost]

@Comatose55 @ryQuant The speed of MTPLF buys will compress that prem FAST. Not saying this is what will happen, but it's worth discussion because this feels much like Nov. 2024 MSTR. Back then, everyone was calling for 1k+ by EOY 24, Lol. 2-3k in 25. Nobody was fading MSTR. Lot of moon math then too.