Massimo Boscarato

durum wheat trader, flour & semolina Seller. the last point of arrival is the next point of departure

[omino della luce 🇺🇦 @ominodellaluce]

Sono d'accordo con @DeBortoliF che sarebbe l'ora di finirla con gli aiuti a pioggia sul gasolio ⛽... sul risparmio come 'valore' un po' meno... non è un valore assoluto (se per assurdo dimezziamo consumo carburanti ci ritroviamo disavanzo di 10+mld€)
👇
https://t.co/uw1oy4BASO

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

Thank you Antonio.

It's true that Barilla/Filiz has a strong presence in Turkey, which indeed provides a solid foundation for further expansion into new markets. With the infrastructure already in place, Turkish producers are well-positioned to take over pasta plants in Italy that might be closing down due to age or other reasons. Acquiring such facilities could be a strategic move to gain a foothold in the European market, bypass quotas, and compete more effectively on a global scale.

Given Turkey's hunger for new markets, this approach could open doors to not only the European market but also to other regions where Italian-made products have a strong reputation. This strategy, combined with the competitive edge from local production and quality durum wheat, could significantly enhance Turkey's presence in the global pasta market.

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

This update provides a detailed overview of the current durum wheat market in Turkey as of August 10, 2024.

Here are the key points:

1.Pricing: Durum wheat prices in Turkey are stable, ranging between 9,650 to 10,000 TL per ton (equivalent to 288-298 USD per ton), with protein levels above 14%.

2.TMO’s Role: The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) is offering prices between 10,000 and 10,500 TL per ton for durum wheat with protein levels above 13.6%, although payments are delayed by approximately 25 days.

3.Quality Concerns: Despite having some of the best amber-colored durum wheat in Diyarbakır, the protein levels are lower this year, ranging between 11.5-12.5%.

4.TMO Stockpiles: TMO is believed to have around 1 million metric tons of durum wheat purchased from farmers.

5.Exports: Two vessels are currently loading a total of 12-13k tons of durum wheat for export from Turkey.

6.Import Ban: The import of wheat is banned until October 15, 2024.

7.Harvest Estimates: The estimated total harvest of durum wheat in Turkey is around 4.6 million tons.

https://t.co/p9ChFhvnBu Competition: I expect strong competition in the global durum wheat market, particularly between Russia/Kazakhstan and Canada for the North African market.

Additionally, there is expected strong competition between Turkey and Canada for the Italian market. That saşd this year I do not expect export to surpass 1 million tons.

9.Price Dynamics: With Chicago milling wheat priced at 5.40 USD per bushel and milling wheat delivered globally at 250 USD per ton, durum wheat prices are not expected to exceed 350 USD per ton CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) to Italy and North Africa.

10.Pasta Market: Turkey is seeing significant growth in its pasta industry, with several new factories under construction. Increased competition is anticipated between Turkey and Italy for the Japanese, Canadian, and U.S. markets. Turkish companies are advised to consider establishing production facilities in Europe, particularly Italy, to bypass European Union’s market quotas.

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

Cezayir Hükümeti'nin Ekim ve Kasım ayları varışlı durum buğdayı ihalesi, tüm önemli durum buğdayı üreticilerini kapsayan geniş katılımlı bir ihale olacak gibi görünüyor. 14 Ağustos 2024'te sonuçlanan bu ihalede, aşağıdaki kalite ve koşullar belirlenmiştir:

•⁠ ⁠*Protein:* Minimum %13.5
•⁠ ⁠*Hektolitre:* Minimum 78
•⁠ ⁠*Camsılık:* Minimum %75
•⁠ ⁠*Kırık Dane:* Maksimum %4
•⁠ ⁠*Yabancı Madde:* Maksimum %2

İhale kapsamında, gemi tahliye oranları şu şekilde belirlenmiştir:

•⁠ ⁠*15,000 ton üzeri gemilerde: 2,500 ton/gün
•⁠ ⁠*15,000 ton’a kadar olan gemilerde: 1,500 ton/gün
•⁠ ⁠*10,000 ton altındaki gemiler için: 1,000 ton/gün

Bu tahliye oranları, piyasa koşullarına göre oldukça düşük olup, gemi navlun fiyatlarını ciddi şekilde artırma potansiyeli taşımaktadır.

Türkiye açısından bu ihaleye katılabilmek ve rekabetçi olabilmek için, İskenderun teslimi gemi üstü 300 -305 USD/ton fiyatlardan satış yapılması gerekiyor. Bu da Mardin ve Urfa'dan temin edilecek %13.5 protein buğdayların yerinde 9,300 TL/ton fiyatla alınmasını gerektirir. Ancak, 500 TL navlun, 350 TL kayıplar, gümrük ve yükleme maliyetleri eklendiğinde, FOB maliyeti yaklaşık 302 USD/ton olur. Buna finans ve gemi navlun fiyatı eklendiğinde, Türkiye'nin bu ihalede rekabetçi olması oldukça zor görünüyor; ayrıca bu kalitede buğdayı 9,300 TL/ton fiyatlarla Mardin ve Urfa'dan almak da pek mümkün görünmüyor.

Bu faktörleri göz önünde bulundurarak, Cezayir teslimi fiyatların 330-340 USD/ton bandında sonuçlanacağını ve büyük olasılıkla bu ihaleyi kazanacak satıcıların Rusya, Kazakistan ve Kanada'dan buğday temin eden firmalar olacağını öngörüyorum. Bu, Türkiye'nin bu ihalede başarılı olmasının zor olacağı anlamına geliyor.

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

Yarın Tunus Hükümeti’nin 25,000 artı 25,000 ton, toplamda 50,000 ton, biri 05-15 Ağustos varışlı, diğeri ise 05-15 Eylül varışlı makarnalık durum buğdayı ihalesi var.

Bu ihalede Yunan, İspanyol, Kanada ve Rus mallarının rekabet edeceği düşünülüyor ve fiyatların Tunus teslimi 335 ile 345 USD/ton fiyatlardan tamamlanacağı öngörülüyor.

Bu ihalede tabii ki Türk firmaları da rekabet edecek ama 360 USD/ton FOB liman teslimi YASAL taban fiyatı var - bu fiyatlardan bu malın satılamayacağını biliyoruz. Ne olacak o zaman? Ya hikayeden bir fiyatla sahte evraklarla mal satılacak ya da ihaleye katılmayacaklar…

Bu saçma kuralın bir an önce kalkıp serbest piyasa dinamiklerinin devreye girmesi lazım…

[Massimo Boscarato @Massboxa]

https://t.co/mMNdWmn3Sj

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

Avrupa Birligi'nin yayimladigi rapora gore 2022-2023 ve 2023-2024 sezonu durum buğdayı ithalatı aşağıdaki gibidir:

2022-2023 Yılı:
Kanada: 1.24 milyon ton (Ağırlıklı İtalya'ya tabiki)
Kazakistan: 166,000 Ton
ABD: 111,000 Ton
Rusya: 85,000 Ton
Türkiye: 30 Ton (sadece 30 ton)

2023-2024 Yılı:
Türkiye: 716,000 Ton (Ağırlıklı İtalya)
Kanada: 532,000 Ton (Ağırlıklı İtalya)
Kazakistan: 490,000 Ton
Rusya: 440,000 Ton
ABD: 156,000 Ton

An itibari ile durum buğdayı üreten ülkelerdeki durum buğdayı fiyatları:
Yunanistan: 300 Euro/ton Selanik Limanı FOB teslim İspanya: 328-330 Euro/ton İtalya CIF teslim
Sicilya: Fabrika teslimi 340 Euro/ton
Apulia, İtalya: Fabrika teslimi 355 Euro/ton (14 protein üstü) 15 Protein ve üstü 365 Euro/ton
Kanada Liman teslimi: 320 USD/ton eski mahsul Kanada Saskatchewan: Silo Teslimi 250 USD/ton yeni sezon Eylül teslimi
Kanada Liman teslimin yeni sezon 310-315 USD/ton

Bu fiyatlara bakarak TMO'nun 360 USD/ton liman teslimi FOB taban fiyat belirlemesini mantıksız ve gereksiz buluyorum.

Bu fiyatlarda ısrarcı olursak, İtalya ve Kuzey Afrika pazarımızı Kanada, Rusya, Meksika veya Kazaklara kaptırabiliriz... Bırakalım ihracat pazarı arz talep dengesi içinde en uygun fiyatını bulsun zaten desteklemlerle çiftçiyi destekliyorsunuz... ha çiftçi ezilmesin diyiyorsanız çiftçiye belirttiğiniz destekleme bedelini, müstahsil kesimine müteakip, bir yıl sonra değilde 3-4 hafta içinde ödemesini yapın...

Çiftçinin taşı ile çiftçinin kuşunu vurmak uzun vadeli strateji belirlemek değil. TMO'nun elinin altında bir sürü akıllı genç kadın erkek var dünya fiyatlarını takip edip o na uygun bir vizyon ve strateji ile Türk durum buğdayımızı dünyada değerli bir marka haline getirmek için uygun bir adım atmış oluruz.

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

I have been visiting another large durum wheat-producing area in Diyarbakir Province in Turkey.

My general observations are:

1. The crop is developing well, and the harvest will likely start on 15 June 2024 and continue until mid-July 2024.

2. The usual altitude is around 650-750 meters above sea level.

3. In some areas, I see a bit of hail damage on lentils and barley, but usually no damage in the durum wheat areas.

4. Soft wheat versus durum wheat in this province is still lower than in Şanlıurfa and Mardin, but it seems like people are planting more and more durum wheat.

5. The area has some irrigated land but mainly non-irrigated land. Since the region has received very good rains, the crop looks good. In the coming days, the weather is expected to be hot with no rain, which is exactly what the durum wheat needs.

6. TMO has NOT announced the 2024 buying price yet, but we expect them to do so in the first half of June 2024. In either case, TMO has a lot of wheat and barley on hand and may not be in a rush to buy more from the farmers. That said, the government should open up the durum export market so that supply and demand forces can work.

7. In all our regions, the quality of durum wheat is very good. We usually see above 90 vitreous levels, proteins between 14-15%, with some exceptions of 18-20% protein, and hectoliters usually ranging from 80-83 in the region.

8. Given the existing stocks, crop size, and the use of soft versus durum wheat in pasta and bulgur, we should open up 2 million tons of our durum wheat for export. If necessary, we should buy durum wheat from Russia (though our producers do not prefer Russian durum due to its higher moisture and inferior color), which is unable to export to the EU due to a 148 EUR/ton tax imposed as of 01 July 2024.

9. Please find enclosed some photos of durum and soft wheat along with the expected weather in Diyarbakir for the next 10 days.

[Sitagri @Sitagri_]

At the 2024 Andalusian Commodity Exchange, some figures are showing the importance Turkey in the global #durmwheat market. 4.7 MT production are expected and around 2MT should be used for exportation.
@NBrokerage

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

Some facts and figures about Turkish durum wheat and beyond:

1. We believe that so far, 1.7 million tons of durum permissions/documents/phytosanitary certificates/applications have been issued (officially unconfirmed).

2. By the end of this week, as vessels are being loaded, we should have shipped 1 million metric tons of durum out of Turkey.

3. As mentioned a month ago, Kazak wheat poses quality challenges this year, limiting exports from Kazakhstan. Additionally, prices for good-quality durum are high, with logistics costs to Italy ranging from 150 to 180 USD/ton.

4. Turkey will no longer be able to sell durum wheat to Italy at 425 USD/MT CIF prices. Prices must rise due to a significant disparity (over 100 USD/MT) between Canadian durum and Turkish durum wheat prices.

5. Turkey has the potential to export 2 million tons of durum wheat, potentially reducing Italy's dependence on Canadian durum.

6. Considering carryovers from the previous year, Canada “needs” to export approximately 3.5 million tons of durum wheat. If Italy meets its demand from other sources, Canadian farmers may need to reconsider asking for 460-470 FOB prices.

7. Despite higher wheat and pasta prices, pasta demand is unlikely to decrease significantly, as price of rice and other complementary products are also high.

8. It is also possible that Turkey will increase its durum exports to North Africa and other destinations instead of Italy if Italian buyers insist on the aforementioned prices.

9. It's been a very interesting year. Nonetheless, we should be able to export approximately 1 million tons of Turkish durum to Italy alone this season, fulfilling roughly one-third of their demand, without encountering significant difficulties.

[Massimo Boscarato @Massboxa]

@MaxPiach O chiede ai cittadini di lavarsi una volta alla settimana

[PurelyCanadaDurum @PCFDurum]

Turkey has now exported over 700K of Durum. Their S&D could allow for 1.5M. Looking like they might get close to this figure. Hence the reason things are quiet in Canada.

[SABAN BUTTANRI @sabanbuttanri]

You bring up a valid point about the challenges that Turkish farmers face due to the dynamics of supply and demand, especially when they need cash.

Currently, durum prices in Turkey are in the range of 9000-9300 TL/Ton (325-345 USD), and the current bids from Italians stand at 375 USD/MT FOB Turkey. Considering the local transport cost to the ports (25-30 USD/MT), if bids are not improved, there may not be much interest in selling at these prices. That said, I must admit that the prices of durum have declined by almost 100 to 125 USD/MT since July 2023.

The fact that 525,000 MT of durum has been shipped, with an expected export of 600,000 MT by the end of the week, highlights the significance of the issue. However, we must also note that more than 1 million tons of durum are already booked out of Turkey by international buyers.

The price difference of 100 USD/MT between Canadian and Turkish durum wheat does suggest the existence of market imbalances. In a competitive global market, price discrepancies can often be attributed to various factors, including production costs, quality differences, exchange rates, and supply and demand dynamics. Nevertheless, there should be an equilibrium somewhere with a price difference of 25-40 USD, not 100 USD.

Efforts to close this price gap or reach an equilibrium would likely involve multiple stakeholders, including producers, traders, and policymakers. Achieving a more balanced price level would benefit Turkish durum wheat producers; however, achieving this can be complex and may require time and coordination among industry participants.

[DurumRealTime-Intergrain Italy @IntergrainItaly]

The Game Changer that radically altered the #durumwheat global market for the current 23/24 campaign was the bumper #crop of about 4.2 MMT in #Turkey, which suddenly transformed the country from a traditional importer to a major #exporter, with an available surplus of (cont.)

[DurumRealTime-Intergrain Italy @IntergrainItaly]

#durumwheatMarket rumours are focusing on Algeria tender results, which likely could have bought 830 KT of #durumwheat originating from:

250 KT from Canada
100 KT from USA
200 KT from Mexico
280 KT from Turkey

How will the market react if #Algeria is not buying until December?

[Areté - Market Intelligence @mkt_intl]

🇨🇦 CAN #pulses #durum
Crop Report @SKGov:
Dry conditions 🏜️are impacting parts of the #Saskatchewan and many producers are hoping for 🌧️rain immediately.

[Massimo Boscarato @Massboxa]

@granduro @lobstersandlamb 6 ton per ettaro mi pare tanto?!

[Anacer @anacer_it]

🚢🚊🚛 Oggi sul @sole24ore, il presidente di Anacer @carlo_licciardi intervistato da #AlessioRomeo. Nell'articolo si parla di come cambiano le rotte dei cereali, i problemi della logistica, le sfide da affrontare.

@COCERAL_EU @FEFAC_EU @FEDIOL_EU @ItalyinEU @SocialMasaf @jwojc

[PurelyCanadaDurum @PCFDurum]

Tender to continue tomorrow but believe OAIC today purchased Mexican around $413-$415 CIF. Perhaps some Canadian moves tomorrow. If CWAD was to move at this level- Prices in country would dip to the $11.50 level.