TML

Principal, co-founder, Cities/inclusion/equality. Rooting for the underdog.

[Arin Dube @arindube]

I don't have rules on AI use in doing problem sets. But to avoid students using AI to substitute for learning, I give an in-class quiz based on each PSET.

If students mostly used AI to do the PSETs and didn't learn from using AI, one might expect a low correlation between the PSET and QUIZ grades.

In practice, I find a correlation coefficient of 0.77.

[TML @MassEconomics]

Here's the documentary: https://t.co/vugBfeaKaK

[TML @MassEconomics]

This is nonsensical: "help narrow the U.S. wealth gap" by "match[ing] the U.S. government’s one-time $1,000 contribution to children’s retirement savings accounts for eligible employees" of JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America

https://t.co/FheRNH7PSd

[Steven Pinker @sapinker]

A new study on "Where Discovery Happens" found that with basic research in the life sciences, Harvard contributes more than Canada & France combined. Boston, Cambridge, & Newton are just behind all of China—and well ahead of every other country in the world. Most of this is from federal funding, which is not, contrary to popular misunderstanding, "taxpayer support of Harvard" -- it's a fee for service, namely discoveries in the life sciences. (Thanks to my colleague Jason Furman for this summary.) https://t.co/jACK5ZYgNv

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Hard disagree. The official BLS jobs numbers are still the most reliable data we have, and it's not close. And there's no way the Administration has (yet) fiddled with its data. I promise to let you know at the first whiff of interference.

[Sylvain Catherine @sc_cath]

Economists think about innovation spillovers across competing firms. Horizontal spillovers.

Tasaneeya shows that innovation, and incentives to innovate, also spreads vertically along the supply chain. The supply chain itself also adapts to R&D activity: highly innovative upstream firms match with highly innovative downstream firms.

[TML @MassEconomics]

@WSJ Please delete this

[TML @MassEconomics]

@Jon_Hartley_ You should provide context: it was down 26% prior to the deployment.

[TML @MassEconomics]

@FrankLuntz You should add some context: crime for the year is down 27%.

[Jarrett Walker @humantransit]

Europe *looks* wealthier than America because more of its wealth is in public, where it benefits everyone. Parks, public transit, civic infrastructure etc etc. Fewer giant mansions and private hunting estates, because the rich pay high taxes. It‘s a choice.

[TML @MassEconomics]

There are zero buses at Kendall and hundreds of people waiting. @mbta

[TML @MassEconomics]

@MBTA There are long lines for shuttle buses at Kendall. Maybe more buses?

[TML @MassEconomics]

@MBTA There are long lines for shuttle buses at Kendall. Maybe more buses?

[TML @MassEconomics]

@OldManLefty1 This provides some context:

https://t.co/kRR1Mlwp3g

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

How to reconcile ADP and BLS payrolls?

I actually don’t see the gap as too big this month.

ADP measures private sector jobs. It correctly flags the sharp slowdown in private sector jobs this month. Particularly the slowdown in private education and health.

This month’s nfp is driven by about 70k net increase in state and local jobs net of federal jobs, which were not counted in adp.

We also know BLS nonfarm payrolls have a birth death model problem still this year, overstating monthly growth by at least 80k-100k per month.

Adp also doesn’t consider weather factors.

So:

-33k (adp) + 80k-100k (birth death overstatement) + 70k (net govt jobs) = 123k-143k nfp headline.

[TML @MassEconomics]

@daviddunn177 This provides some context:

https://t.co/kRR1MlwWSO

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

How to reconcile ADP and BLS payrolls?

I actually don’t see the gap as too big this month.

ADP measures private sector jobs. It correctly flags the sharp slowdown in private sector jobs this month. Particularly the slowdown in private education and health.

This month’s nfp is driven by about 70k net increase in state and local jobs net of federal jobs, which were not counted in adp.

We also know BLS nonfarm payrolls have a birth death model problem still this year, overstating monthly growth by at least 80k-100k per month.

Adp also doesn’t consider weather factors.

So:

-33k (adp) + 80k-100k (birth death overstatement) + 70k (net govt jobs) = 123k-143k nfp headline.

[TML @MassEconomics]

@IDoTheThinking This provides some context: https://t.co/kRR1MlwWSO

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

How to reconcile ADP and BLS payrolls?

I actually don’t see the gap as too big this month.

ADP measures private sector jobs. It correctly flags the sharp slowdown in private sector jobs this month. Particularly the slowdown in private education and health.

This month’s nfp is driven by about 70k net increase in state and local jobs net of federal jobs, which were not counted in adp.

We also know BLS nonfarm payrolls have a birth death model problem still this year, overstating monthly growth by at least 80k-100k per month.

Adp also doesn’t consider weather factors.

So:

-33k (adp) + 80k-100k (birth death overstatement) + 70k (net govt jobs) = 123k-143k nfp headline.

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

How to reconcile ADP and BLS payrolls?

I actually don’t see the gap as too big this month.

ADP measures private sector jobs. It correctly flags the sharp slowdown in private sector jobs this month. Particularly the slowdown in private education and health.

This month’s nfp is driven by about 70k net increase in state and local jobs net of federal jobs, which were not counted in adp.

We also know BLS nonfarm payrolls have a birth death model problem still this year, overstating monthly growth by at least 80k-100k per month.

Adp also doesn’t consider weather factors.

So:

-33k (adp) + 80k-100k (birth death overstatement) + 70k (net govt jobs) = 123k-143k nfp headline.

[TML @MassEconomics]

@thomaschattwill @triadaxiom It's one person -- it's not a "symbol" of a "movement."

[(((Matthew Lewis))) cults & consequences @mateosfo]

Well whaddya know.

"The City of Los Angeles could largely solve its $1 billion budget shortfall by allowing more homes to be built near its transit stations."

[coney dog urbanist @detroitdevdoc]

Census Bureau: Detroit has gained 11,000 residents over the last two years, representing the largest numeric increase in Michigan. The city has now grown by >1% since the 2020 count.

Just incredible news, especially considering the situation 10-15 years ago.

[Jarrett Walker @humantransit]

A long term solution to the US transit funding crisis lies in capturing the value that transit creates: the increase in local land value around frequent service. That's the key to delivering both transit and dense housing nearby.

Great @jongeeting piece, linked in first reply.