Mateusz

Jestem nikim. Intelektualnie i merytorycznie Neandertalczyk. Pisze głupoty i nadużywam alkoholu. Z wyjątkiem Jack Daniels, odradzam czytać moje wpisy.

[Mateusz @Mateo_Mojo]

Share https://t.co/IgjXcdDYHA

[Nova @CryptoGirlNova]

Are we currently in a bear flag?

Technically speaking yes. Yes we are.

But it is often more complex than that. A trend is a trend untill it isn't anymore.

Meaning you can actually have a bear flag at the end of the trend while the bottom is actually in.

BUT almost every time they do end up looking different than a normal bear flag.

In almost every case they actually break the bear flag but not making any new lows either.

The market shows strength and actually just makes a revisit to the low and ends up looking at an accumulation pattern after.

Which also started with a bear flag (see the charts down below).

We didn't bottom on a bear flag in late 2022. We didn't bottom on a bear flag in in 2019. We even didn't bottom on a bear flag in May 2021 on a mid cycle reset (large correction).

So no we have never done it like this before. Which means I'm obviously sceptical to us just going up-only right now.

It's still a downtrend BUT there are 2 most likely paths forward:

1/ Bear flag breaks and resumes the downtrend (now lows possible).

2/ Bear flag breaks but we still end up holding the lows (strength in the market = bottom thesis becomes stronger).

But the most UNLIKELY path is effectively just up-only from here. Evidence and historically backed.

And no... Not everyone thinks like that at all (stop that stupid thesis where CT really thinks we influence Bitcoin's 50-100 billion dollar volume moves with our little portfolios. That only works on low caps).

If you truly want to follow what many bears think is that we break the bear flat and go to 30-40k in October.

But honestly, if Bitcoin was going to do that, it still would (it wouldn't change its course because CT is posting charts about it...)

But no that's not what I think. I'm only interested in seeing the evidence when we really bottom.

That evidence has not presented itself yet.

And if this is an outlier and really a first new time and we really bottom on a bear flag? (even if it has never ever happened before unless it broke first and showed evidence of holding the bottom range)

Than making a new range would convince me (check quoted post down below).

So yeah I do have a thesis of every single path forward I'm looking for.

0 surprises for me. I know what I'm looking for on what possibly happens.

But the most dangerous path forward is being ignorant about every single outcome.

- We HAVE to go to 30-40k
- We 100% ALREADY bottomed
- We CAN'T see lower anymore

All of these can completely be wrong and invalidated. Markets are ever changing and you can't always prepare on exact scenarios that the market has yet to show.

Lots of lessons and teachings in this post I believe, yet I do think most won't have read it till the end though (which is fine ofcourse).

But for myself:

We stay the course and follow the markets 🤝

[naiive @naiivememe]

US failed to reach a deal with Iran

The stock market waiting to open on Monday

[beeple @beeple]

WORLD LIBERTY FI

[Mateusz @Mateo_Mojo]

Myślę, że to może być początek ciekawej serii. A pomysłów mam mnóstwo. To znaczy nasz wielki wódz inspiruje mnie każdego dnia. 📷

[naiive @naiivememe]

Gold holders looking at Bitcoin

[Nova @CryptoGirlNova]

Counter-trend rallies happen every cycle.

Whether we look at 2018 or 2022 or ... It's almost always the same.

It's safe to assume we can expect one here as well. Especially with some of the confluence of today's price action.

And if it really is more than just relief? Then price literally almost always comes back to make a higher low anyway (V-shape recoveries to valhalla are statistically a myth).

Hence the need to reevaluate from there.

[₿IRB @crypto_birb]

AI after week in Poland:

[Rafał Zaorski @rafal_zaorski]

Rubel jak na ostatnie wydarzenia bardzo stabilny i nawet się umacnia. Rosnący DAX sugeruję, że Rosja wróci do rozmów pokojowych. Muszą jeszcze "ulice" poubierać w złoto(4592$) i srebro(84,2$) na maksymalnych emocjach i całość tej pięknej układanki się niedługo objawi. Jeszcze więcej chińczyka naganiającego na srebro i złoto :) poproszę

[Ash Crypto @AshCrypto]

Since June, BTC has been trading sideways on the daily chart.

And over the past four months, Bitcoin has consistently dropped after each FOMC meeting, a pattern that seems to be repeating now.

This could mark the final post-FOMC shakeout before the next major move.

[Chainlink @chainlink]

.@OndoFinance has selected Chainlink as the official oracle infrastructure powering its regulated tokenized stocks platform, establishing CCIP as the preferred interoperability solution for financial institutions collaborating with Ondo.

https://t.co/xLqCMJov2H

In addition, Ondo has adopted the Chainlink data standard to ensure its tokenized stocks are priced with accurate, reliable market data and Chainlink has joined the Ondo Global Market Alliance, supporting the launch of regulated tokenized stocks onchain.

Powered by Chainlink’s institutional-grade oracle infrastructure, each Ondo Global Markets asset is priced with secure, real-time, and reliable data input, enabling composability across lending protocols, structured products, and collateralized DeFi vaults. Chainlink feeds capture all economic and corporate action events, enabling real-time, secure equity pricing onchain.

This is how we build the next generation of onchain capital markets:

• Real-time, onchain equity access
• Trusted data and interoperability for institutional DeFi
• TradFi liquidity and DeFi programmability

[Nova @CryptoGirlNova]

Eerily similar

Eerily promising

Alts however are in a different boat. Very likely we'll need to see a further extention on both these pairs to see things liven up.

A lot of alts won't surge anymore. But many also will.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Grok Imagine

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

Download @Grok

It's a good app.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

It only gets better from here

[DogeDesigner @cb_doge]

Grok Imagine 💫

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Transform your favorite photos into videos in about 17 seconds with Grok Imagine

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Made with Grok Imagine
https://t.co/TtQFQ9tTA7

[naiive @naiivememe]

i’m not selling

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Ani stepped out of the hologram