Mathias Althoff

Emerging/Frontier market specialist. Co-Head of Emerging and Frontier Markets @evlifunds
Views are my own (but you can borrow them for free).

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

More stories like this should get Trump of Mexico's back, and hopefully decrease/remove the threat of trade tariffs. #EmergingMarkets #FrontierMarkets #TundraFonder https://t.co/DQNZuqaVvD

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Interesting chart from Nomura this morning. The Terrific Ten were so out of flavour I thought the chart said Terrible Ten 😀

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Lot's of travelling currently for Tundra as @Tundra_CIO goes to Sri Lanka. 🔍 #EmergingMarkets #FrontierMarkets #TundraFonder

[Mattias Martinsson @Tundra_CIO]

The bag is packed again! Next stop #SriLanka.

This evening, I’m heading to Colombo for a few days of meetings with companies from #Pakistan, #Bangladesh, and #SriLanka. I’m also excited to finally try out the local padel courts. A version of ‘Work hard, play hard’ for the equity and sports nerd 🤓💪🎾🇱🇰

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

"we will get rid of capital controls in 2025"

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Day 2 at Santander's LatAm conf starts with Argentina CB governor Santiago Bausili "cutting government spending is often questioned due to negative effects on economic activity, we've seen quite the opposite. Formerly crowded out private investments are coming back strongly"

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Beeing one of the best markets globally in 2024, with MSCI Argentina+117% on the back of successful reforms by Milei (first budget surplus in 14y, inflation sharply down etc) the stock market has had a tough start to the year.

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

@Johan_Elmquist And in Mexico and Brazil in particular!

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Lunch time at Santander's LatAm conference. Room is packed with investors and corporates, which bodes well for interesting conversations!

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

In route again for more LatAm meetings in NYC. Considering the January Mexico visit was the week before Trump took office, this time we have a few more leads but still large amounts of unknown. Interesting discussions ahead! #EmergingMarkets #FrontierMarkets #TundraFonder

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

@TFareed59738 April 30th latest.

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

After being locked up for two days with Mexican corporate meetings, it was field trip time again. Interesting visits to 2 of Walmexs offerings, higher end Walmart Express, and value store Bodega, as well as a visit to Cancun Airport run by Asur.

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Also shown in the graph, Mexico now the largest exporter to the US, overtaking China. A huge discussion among investors here in Mexico if that's a curse or a blessing (i e risk of tariffs). My view: if Trump goes 🍌 on import tariffs it'll create inflation, hurting his voters.

[Mattias Martinsson @Tundra_CIO]

Two relevant graphs from yesterday's presentation (source: Maybank)

1) #USA is reducing its imports from #China ➡️ benefits for smaller emerging markets.

2) China reduces its imports from #USA ➡️smaller emerging markets are also reaping the benefits.
#EmergingMarkets #FrontierMarkets

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

The room is packed with investors as Santander's Mexico Conference kicks off with a very interesting discussion with Gerardo Esquivel, Former Mexican Central Bank member, on the economic state of Mexico and the road ahead.

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Also saw airline Volaris service area where they were replacing an engine for regular service (done approx every 18 months) a three day job.

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

Two days of meetings in #Guadalajara done. Ended with a visit to airport operator GAPs largest asset, the Guadalajara airport. Newly renovated and expanded with more to come. Looks (and works) great!

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

But also top of the line fire fighting capabilities.

[Tundra Fonder @TundraFonder]

Vi är glada att Tundra Sustainable Frontier Fund har blivit erkänd som en av de bästa fonderna 2024 av Morningstar. Stort tack till våra investerare för ert förtroende.

Disclaimer: Investeringar innebär risk.

https://t.co/WYPB15gXAg

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

I expect a lot of discussions in the meetings coming week will be about Trump/trade, nearshoring, tourism, MXN, government spending as well as rate cut expectations.

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

#Mexico trading at approx 25% discount to 10y average PB and PE ratios makes it interesting. Macro backdrop improving, but estimates have GDP slowing from 1.5% in 2024 to 1.2% in 2025 (and 1.8% in 2026).

[Mathias Althoff @MathiasAlthoff]

...spurred by expectations of continued rate cuts in 2025.