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🏈 NFL Prop #3 (10/15)
🍽️ 𝐄𝐯𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐦 𝐎𝐕𝐄𝐑 𝟏𝟏.𝟓 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
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- Evan Engram is coming off his best game of the season, catching all 4 of his targets for 55 yards against the Chargers with a 34-yard long. He has now cleared this line in 3/4 games with a reception this season, including a 17-yard catch against Jacksonville in a game where he saw only one target. Engram is averaging 12.1 yards per reception, so he doesn’t need a huge receiving game to get there.
- The larger sample supports that as well. Dating back to last season, Engram has cleared this line in 8/12 games when recording at least one catch while averaging a 19.3-yard longest reception. That improves to 6/8 with 2+ catches and 7/10 with 3+ catches, while his 3+ reception market is heavily favored. The more opportunities Engram gets, the stronger his chances of finding one catch that clears this number.
- Seattle is easily the biggest concern and ranks 1st against TE longest receptions, along with ranking near the top of the league in aDOT, explosive receptions and yards per catch allowed to the position. This isn’t a matchup-based over, but the threshold is low enough that Engram doesn’t need Seattle to have a bad defensive game. One intermediate completion can get there.
- Engram’s athleticism gives him another path through yards after the catch. His role generally keeps him in the short and intermediate areas, but he has always been capable of turning a manageable completion into a chunk gain. We just saw that against Los Angeles, and even his one catch against Jacksonville was enough to clear this line.
- Seattle is a difficult TE matchup, but Engram’s recent involvement and ability to create after the catch give him multiple paths to one explosive reception. With his reception volume expected to stay involved, we like him to go over this line.
Best Odds: -105 BetMGM
📊 Data via @PropsMadness
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🏈 TNF PICK #2 🏈
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Seattle #Seahawks @ Denver #Broncos
Evan Engram Over 11.5 Longest Reception 🟢
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#Seahawks
🏈TNF Prop #2
1u: Cooper Kupp 20+ Rec. yards (-136)
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He’s recorded 129 receiving yards on 11 catches through five games, averaging 11.7 yards per reception. That means he doesn’t need a high-volume performance to get this over home — just a couple of productive receptions could be enough.
The matchup is particularly interesting with Denver missing Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga, while Riley Moss is questionable. Those absences could weaken the Broncos’ secondary and create opportunities for Seattle’s complementary receiving options, especially if Denver prioritizes limiting Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Kupp’s route profile also gives us multiple ways to cash. Denver ranks 30th against out routes, which account for 18% of Kupp’s routes, and 22nd against curls, another 9.1% of his route tree.
Additionally, in both road games thus far Kupp has logged 20 & 46 receiving yards.
With the low yardage threshold, potential coverage advantages, and Denver’s injury concerns, I like Kupp’s chances of doing enough with his opportunities to get us over the line.
🔬| @PropsEdge
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#Salzburg vs AC #Milan
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#UCL PICK
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Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain: 2nd half with most goals, +100
Decent value, can definitely see it being a tight tactical battle in the first with space opening up later in the game...
Worth taking a look! 👇
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Teoscar Hernández “O” 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
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📈 .284 BA • .482 SLG vs LHP
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The volume is there. The contact quality is encouraging. Now we look for Hernández to turn it into production. 📊
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Roma vs Real Madrid
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#UCL PICK
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Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain: 2nd half with most goals, +100
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Worth taking a look! 👇
#MCIPSG
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Atletico Madrid vs. Manchester United tonight at the Metropolitano 🏟️
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📉 United with 1 domestic win in their last 6...
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