.Dot.

In the end, the only thing that matters is if the trend, or flows, are in your favor. Primarily quant focused - some interest in SMID cap asymmetric stocks.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

The front month oil price is pricing in the SPR release cadence, the 5m per day decrease in China imports, 100m barrel shadow fleet passage, and couple million barrel redirect via land pipelines. The market was pricing correctly imo. These are temporary solutions though. Everything is fine if the SoH normalizes soon. $80 WTI maybe a little lower while the world restocks. Everything is not fine if we continue down this path. What is the runway? Not sure. It will be interesting to see the moves come open. Eventually the market will stop discounting the narrative and trade a premium to uncertainty. I think…

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@JoshYoung Two different crowds - two different stories. 1.) Adults in the room 2.) Blind MAGA followers. -- you decide which story was for which group ;)

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@from1to4000000 @jweil130 @michaeljburry

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@from1to4000000 @jweil130 @michaeljburry Because if you bought a stock that went from 500 to 50 then you can't have the stock then go from 50 to 10 in your example to keep the story apples to apples. So which is it?

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

No - you’re taking a thought experiment too literally. The idea is that every decision should be siloed into point in time decisions not pnl. Compounding poor decisions is the way to ruin. Also, if you bought at 50 and it goes to 10 you made a remarkably poor decision and need to evaluate your skill in analysis lol. Watching a stock go from 100 to 10 and then buying at 10 is completely different than riding an 80% loss from peak. A relative 50% loss in a value trap long term hold is justified at a depressed valuation. I’m just reading tea leaves from a pretty terribly explained thought from an autistic guy that got famous from being right 1 time in almost 20 years. Idk 🤷‍♂️

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@BruceKnuteson @P_Remarks Ok this chart is wild if true. I know that 80% of stock appreciation is gap ups but what the actual fuck?

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

I starting buying saas companies for the first time this year this week. I bought $ADBE $CRM and $WDAY. I don’t own it yet but I think I will also buy $NOW. I plan to develop these positions over Q3. I don’t believe the bottom is in but I do believe the immediate term chip top and saas bottom happens in Q3.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@BradPrick @michaeljburry It’s two trades. 1 shit trade with a 50% loss and a 2nd trade at 6x. But numbers wise yes you are right and he’s retarded.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@BradPrick @michaeljburry His logic is about sunk cost not opportunity cost.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

He is saying you 6x’d your opportunity cost at a common puke point for most investors. Effectively the 50% loss is sunk cost. So the most important decision is the most recent one and the most recent one in this decision chain is a 6 bagger. Hope that helps. Burry is slightly retarded.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@rubicon59 I read a bit of his thread. Yeah that game took 5 min to create vs 15 sec for web based. To do anything of value it would be terrible. 100% bait confirmed.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@rubicon59 Not likely anytime soon. (Years) you need an enormous amount of memory to have anything close to the t/s output from web based chat interfaces. I didn’t look in to that posts claims but I suspect it is largely bait.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

$XOM looking to buy woodside for their LNG assets is very telling on where the puck is heading as far as capturing volume is concerned.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

Hot take - we won't have a recession until after 2027. CPI is going to stay sticky regardless of energy prices and energy prices in general is not what is driving sticky core inflation. Even the lag doesn't matter. Nominal GDP will remain quite high through 2027. Why? Because of AI capex. AI capex is causing demand side inflation due to what will amount to trillions of dollars entering the real economy. Also, what that means for stock is the real question. Those trillions aren't going into financial assets they are going into stuff.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@GavMcCracken You either realize 50% upside over the next year or 3 months. Either is fine with me.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@GaelBreton ehhh... no - codex 2 and gpt x.x are coming out soon. Sam is better friends with the government. It'll be fine.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

Fable 5 on claude code felt like a better version of codex. codex 2 and gpt 5.6/6.0 is just going to wipe the floor with claude code. Anthropic tuned their LLMs to make you feel like you are doing big things but in fact you are running around in circles overthinking wasting tokens getting nowhere. OMG Fable 5 one shot a shitty video game so much better than GPT 5.5 did! Who cares? Whoever freaks out about things like that isn't actually doing serious work on anything.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@junkbondinvest Not a problem - google underwrites all the private credit risk for anyone that wants in.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@EnergyCynic @WAR527 oh and they have to sell some stuff too to make it all work. just my opinion.

[.Dot. @MaverickDots]

@EnergyCynic @WAR527 The land buy... not the merger. But in the end the land buy is probably correct by using todays large cashflows maintaining 70% CF back to shareholders and having extra to build out more volume in a normalized oil environment. Kind of solidified them as a good hold 3-5 years.