Max Adam

Statistics Major at Colby College | Half of @top1fantasy on Instagram

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

Basically the last hurdle is convincing yourself that Malik Willis is good. If you think the offense can be 25th in the league and not 32nd, Achane is probably a pick worth making, but a good or bad pick is really in the eye of the drafter.

At the bottom line, relying on consolidating volume to a heliocentric degree basically just widens the range of outcomes. If the critical event happens you will uber mega smash beyond the situation level expectations but if it doesn’t happen you have an rb1 on a bad team.

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

IN DEFENSE OF DEVON ACHANE🐬🧵

The general consensus among Big Fantasy and your favorite niche analyst alike (unless im your fav <3) is Devon Achane is the worst pick in the first two rounds, or possibly on the whole board. That’s generally agreeable. His team is horrible and he goes from playing with a screen merchant statue to a mobile gunslinger. However, Devon Achane is one of my favorite players so I wanted to do some research to see if these claims actually hold up analytically.

TLDR: Perception is overstated in reality the range of outcomes is just expanded.

This contrarian Achane bull case was my inspiration (shoutout Quent).

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

Among QBs on bad teams that started at least 8 games for their bad team and averaged north of 40 rushing yards per start we have a 93 games sample since 1999 of RBs playing on bad teams with mobile QBs.

The 20 Achane comps (269 games): 21.4 RB XFP per game

Bad team rushing QB sample (93 games): 19.8 RB XFP per game

If you’re more privy to viewing Achane as an offensive weapon rather than just an RB, the mobile QB aspect is actually positive:

Achane comps total skill position XFP per game: 54.3

Mobile QB Games: 57.0

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

@HL_Crusader @PPRTyler Do they say 'mogged to death' differently in a Minnesota accent?

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

@CuppsAnalytics Yeah really showing my age. Nonetheless Cole Payton is Roosevelt

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

@NoFilm_Analysis

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

@kyle_borg @Underdog Is advance rate data publicly available somewhere?

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

Checkdown reliance (basically role luxury) vs non checkdown fpts/rr since 2021.

-Please stop comparing Hendo receiving to Gibbs
-Is Dylan Sampson actually just the goat?
-Surprising Steelers RB room runout
-Random Braelon bagwork
-Are Willis's checkdown rate concerns overblown (more on this soon in the 'Contrarian defense of Devon Achane')

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

QB impact per drop-back vs offensive situation scores among QBs in their FIRST YEAR STARTING. Don't conflate real life potency with fantasy productivity at QB. Although producing big hit skill players is useful from a functioning offense for sure.

-Standing on business with my Titans full fade.
-Shough straddling the canyon between charlatan and sorcerer, fun way to gamble bad rookie picks.
-Dart is studly but Nagy has fried bigger fish.
-It may be incorrect to want to escape the (ATL) 9-5.

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

2023-2025 QB impact (epa and win probability added) vs situation (team epa/rush, routes grades & pass block grades).

-Hate to be a homer, but Stroud is the best buy low / cheap startup pick currently.
-Bucs offense bounce back.
-Shanahan system is the standard but Ben Johnson and Liam Coen making it a convo.

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

@Sherman_FFB @democrats I would spread the good word of that’s fair at Colby for sure.

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

@HL_Crusader Pete has entered the toutopticon 👁️

[Max Adam @MaxAdamFF]

@peteroverzet Electric