Max Casey

Strategist. All things macro & markets. All views are my own.

[Davey @TheRealDavey2]

Under Labor's new capital gains tax, if you're on the top tax rate, have a 6% mortgage and 2.5% inflation, you need to earn 9.1% investing - no small feat - just to break even with putting your money in a mortgage offset account. That's before you are compensated one cent for the risk you took, the double taxation, the time and effort.

Say you want to make at least 3% after tax above putting money in your offset account. A modest benefit. You would need to make 14.76% in the market. Do that consistently and you would be ranked amongst the greatest investors of all time. That's right - Labor's hurdle for investing as an Australian is you need to be amongst the greatest investors of all time. So if you're John Templeton or Walter Schloss, no worries.

[Clark Square Capital @ClarkSquareCap]

Small-cap investors rejoice!

Today is finally our day.

[junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest]

Golub has its Puralsight debt marked at 97 😂

Honestly surprised no one marking at cost...🤣

#privatecredit

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

@MenthorQpro @AsymmetricWins

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

@GeoffWilsonWAM 1) central bank buying to diversify UST holdings given growing fiscal instability and geopolitical risks (explains why ETF holdings are falling)
2) Chinese household buying to protect their wealth from plunging real estate prices and volatile domestic equity markets

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

@M_Gannon_ @theGreatTipOff Something go wrong in the ride for Fawkner Park?

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

RBA to cut before the Fed? Looking much more plausible. Unemployment up to 4.1% (US @ 3.6%), retail sales soft, inflation below RBA forecasts, business conditions deteriorating. $AUD looks vulnerable. Bonds look attractive. #investing #bonds #currency

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

The valuations of Aussie banks are astonishing. $CBA now trading at 21x ($GOOGL @ 18.5x) and a div yield of 4% (hybrids paying 6.5%). Enormous premium to global counterparts. #asxnews

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

Everyone: credit spreads are expensive, corporate fundamentals are deteriorating, the looming maturity wall will spur a wave of defaults.

Credit markets:

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

But US market is too concentrated!

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

The AI revolution is only just starting to touch industry...

[Bloomberg Markets @markets]

Shares in French call-center firm Teleperformance sink as much as 28% after Klarna says its AI assistant does the work of 700 full-time agents https://t.co/huNl7hhuT8

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

Tough time to be an active manager. Doubt that SPIVA scorecard (https://t.co/597JUj14DV) is going to look good anytime soon...

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The S&P 500 jumped 24% in 2023, but did it really perform that well?

In 2023, 72% of stocks in the S&P 500 underperformed the index itself.

Even at the height of the Dot-com bubble, 70% of stocks in the S&P 500 underperformed the index.

In other words, the market is now even more driven by a handful of stocks than it was in the Dot-com bubble.

The Magnificent 7 alone currently represent over 30% of the S&P 500.

A few stocks ARE effectively the stock market.

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

There's no stopping the equity bulls. Looks like the market is looking through the core CPI print. Likely due to the influence of shelter costs (43% vs. 18% in PCE). All eyes now turn to PPI (a key input in PCE). An upward surprise would likely see vol (equity & bond) spike.

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

Another soft local jobs prints (500 jobs added and u/e to 4.1%). This trend should continue given rapid population growth. Likely to be a welcome relief for the RBA. 2-3 cuts now on the cards. Good time to be a bond holder. #RBA #duration

[Max Casey @MaxCasey20]

This has gone too far

[Bloomberg @business]

Now there's a sriracha sauce shortage and chili-heads are up in arms https://t.co/PQf7MoVUBi