Olivia
Online
Dave Hughes live in Sydney just now:
No changes to capital gains tax.
If we want a future for our country, we will oppose Albanese's taxes ๐ฆ๐บ
David Jones stores set to be closed
@cocolulu2026 This old devious witch.. slows down technology progress
@thesimaximalist true, it does not. But it lays out confidence level of cited evidence and list caveats attaching to the facts. This leaves judgement to humans. so the landscape has changed.
An AI answer can sound like science when you know too little to question it.
Large language models generate language, not guaranteed truth. A confident answer and a correct answer can read exactly the same, and that's a structural risk, not an occasional glitch.
The risk is harder to manage when you know least about the topic. If you can't spot a weak claim, the AI's answer quietly becomes your science.
So I built a Researcher agent with one job: validate every source, summarise the evidence, and criticise the claim.
I tested it on a simple claim: "Tinned or canned sardines have nutrition and health benefits almost as good as fresh sardines."
It went to the original evidence: national food-composition tables from the UK, US and Australia, FDA mercury data, and guidance from health bodies. It excluded studies it could only see as paywalled snippets. It also flagged that there are few direct trials comparing health outcomes for canned and fresh.
Its verdict: the claim largely holds. Bone-in canned sardines add calcium, but sodium and packing oil matter. It had high confidence on nutrient content and only moderate confidence on equal health benefits.
That split is the useful part. Comparing nutrients is something you can observe in the tables. Saying the health benefits are equal is an inference.
Then I asked Grok Bot whether the conclusion was reasonable and true, not a hallucination. It opened the key tables itself and found the main figures matched.
None of this guarantees the truth. But it changes the process. One agent makes the case, another checks the original evidence rather than just agreeing, and I step in where I have the judgment to.
My view: for anyone using AI seriously, a deep-research validator is becoming essential, and probably inevitable.
How do you check the AI answers you can't judge yourself?
#ArtificialIntelligence #AI #CriticalThinking
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
Public spending in Australia is running well above its long-run norm, and that has consequences for the rest of the economy.
Spending on services and projects, % of GDP, year to June 2026, versus the average since 1960. ABS National Accounts, trend series.
Federal, 12.5% versus 9.3%.
State and local, 16.3% versus 14.4%.
All public demand, 28.8% versus 23.7%.
The ABS reports councils and states together. Combined, they sit clearly above trend. Commonwealth payments reached 26.9% of GDP in 2025-26. Outside COVID, that's the highest since the mid-1980s.
All three levels of government are above their historical average at the same time. That points to a structural shift, not a cyclical one.
Public and private projects share one labour pool. Infrastructure Australia counts 204,000 major project workers, 141,000 short of demand. The gap could reach 300,000 by 2027. About 60% of firms see labour as a delivery risk. When public pipelines and private builders compete for the same tradies, engineers and machinery, capacity tightens, rates rise, and cost pressure flows through to inflation.
The RBA has one lever. The RBA says public infrastructure work is likely around its peak. But its tools are limited to the cash rate. Fiscal settings sit outside its control.
The adjustment falls unevenly. When demand runs hot, rate rises do the cooling. That cost is borne most directly by households with a mortgage.
Much of this spending builds things we need, like roads, rail and hospitals. But right now, the main way we bring inflation down is higher interest rates. That puts the squeeze on people with a mortgage, while government spending carries on as before
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