One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
There are really no words to describe how much Wendell Berry's work has meant to me, my family, and our hopes.
Tonight, though, I'm thinking about Wendell's Tanya.
Dolly Parton rose from a humble cabin in the Tennessee mountains and became an American icon. Truly one of a kind. She spent her life trying to share light and love with everyone. May the warmth of God’s love surround her 🙏🏽
I didn't have the money for books when I was a child. Luckily I had libraries! @DollyParton was an advocate for the importance of reading. She started 'The Imagination Library' that gifts books to children with no cost to the family. Find out more here: https://t.co/7dhsMvrGTI
the predilection for women readers to accept, even admire, casual sexism or even ugly misogyny in male writers of fiction seemed to have faded, then died out entirely after the era of Updike & Roth. they/we could laugh at Philip Roth's absurdly caricatured female characters without exactly wishing to accept what theses caricatures meant; but in more recent years, women readers have other expectations.
I think that people read Roth for different reasons, not so evident today. he was a caricaturist & "unfair" in the way of satire rather than psychological realism. he was also a considerable presence in the literary world, like Norman Mailer, & friends/acquaintances were willing to overlook elements in their writing which now seem outrageous to us. recall, Lenny Bruce was a strong influence on Roth: shocking the bourgeoise.
an early story, "Defender of the Faith," remains powerful, definitely worth reading, unsparingly candid.
"Instead of a dramatic affair filled with scandal and betrayal, [CRUSH] offers a raw, introspective exploration of desire and self-discovery.”
Read @dailycal's review of CRUSH by @adacalhoun, on sale now! https://t.co/tZG2FFDH44
I’m thrilled to show you the cover of my next book, TIMELESS, coming from @harperbooks and @HQstories September 15, 2026! This is the behind-the-scenes story of my second (and third, and fourth) acts. From surviving hardships to thriving in my seventies, I hope my story inspires you to embrace change at any age and believe the best is yet to come. It’s available now for pre-order here: https://t.co/W9KRc2KNbf