Mars Capital Partners

Global macro markets through the lens of market structure. Technical analysis, scenarios, & probabilistic outlooks. Research from Mars Capital Partners Pty Ltd.

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

#SPX and #Nasdaq are testing 50-day SMA support after a corrective decline.
This remains the key near-term inflection zone. Holding support keeps the bullish extension scenario alive, while a break below would increase the risk of a deeper decline.

The near term #ES_F chart outlines the scenarios we're watching.

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

#TYX #ZN_F US 10-year yields continue to correct within what appears to be the final stages of a larger triangle consolidation.
Ideal targets remain lower towards 200-day SMA support as we await a bigger picture triangle thrust higher in rates - an ending rally for this cycle.

The chart highlights the structural setup and the scenario we're monitoring for the next major move.

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Inflection

#SPX and #Nasdaq continue to hold 50-day SMA trend support. No confirmation of a tradable top, and the potential remains for an extension to new ATHs.

#TYX #ZN_F bonds remain trapped within triangle consolidations.

#DXY is testing resistance and threatening to break higher, while the #Euro tests key 1.14 support.

Several major markets sit at important inflection points.

[Mars Capital Partners @MCPResearch]

Evolving Balance of Risks

As CB's assess the inflation impact of the energy shock, this week's inflation data (US PCE inflation, Canada, Aus, & Tokyo CPI) will update trends in underlying inflation. Also: Global prelim PMIs.

Weekly Macro Outlook 👇

https://t.co/mByxnTf3gw

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Near-Term Inflection

#SPX / #Nasdaq rallied strongly from 50-day SMA trend support, calling into question the bear reversal. A push to new ATHs invalidates the bear case and opens the door to another 5th wave extension higher.

Elsewhere:
• A near term corrective decline in the #DXY and #TYX likely sets up the bullish break higher.
• #CrudeOil approaches a key make-or-break zone for the bull case

Full Market Update 👇

[Mars Capital Partners @MCPResearch]

Underlying Inflation Risks

With the energy shock nearing a turning point, the question for CB's this week is whether inflation pressures are becoming more persistent.

#RBA #BoJ #BoE #FOMC meet this week.

Full Weekly Macro Outlook 👇

https://t.co/QmnO9WIu03

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

#SPX / #Nasdaq impulsive decline and break of near term support helps build the case for a bearish change in trend... Bears need to see downside follow through that breaks 50 day sma support.

Any push to new ATH's invalidates the bear case.

https://t.co/n6SIa3D9Bp

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Bear Reversal?
#SPX / #Nasdaq reversed sharply lower from measured upside targets, but bears still need to see downside follow-through and a break of near-term support to help confirm a tradable top.

Across markets:
• Our bullish outlook for the US$ (#DXY) and rates (#TYX) remains intact
• #CrudeOil remains trapped within a corrective consolidation, but the bigger-picture bullish outlook remains
• #Bitcoin has tagged minimum downside targets with new lows

Latest Update 👇
https://t.co/1Xx9YilrGS

[Mars Capital Partners @MCPResearch]

Central bank outlook.

Focus shifts to policy decisions & signalling as CB's again assess the inflation & growth impacts of the ongoing ME conflict.

This wk: #ECB, #BoC, US #CPI & #PPI ahead of next week's #FOMC.

Full Weekly Macro Outlook 👇

https://t.co/hHhIhnMjzJ

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Hope Springs Eternal.
#SPX / #Nasdaq are approaching near-term upside targets. We remain alert to trend exhaustion and the risk of a bearish reversal, but still need to see confirmation of a change in trend.

Across markets:
• #CL_F / Crude Oil approaching support as we look for bullish continuation
• While near-term pullbacks remain possible, the bigger-picture bullish setup remains intact for rates, the US$, and energy markets (#TYX #DXY #CL_F)

Additional charts and market views below.
Latest Update 👇
https://t.co/1Xx9YilrGS

[Mars Capital Partners @MCPResearch]

Assessing labor market risks.

Amid elevated inflation, US #NFP for May will be an important input into the Fed’s June meeting and its assements of risks around the mandate.

This wk: #NFP, #ISMs, #FactoryOrders, #BeigeBook

Full Weekly Macro Outlook 👇

https://t.co/GB0AJ7B2U0

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Rally extends, but reversal risk remains.
#SPX / #Nasdaq held near-term support and extended higher, but we continue to view this move as a likely ending wave. Buyer beware.

Across markets:
��� #TYX / #US10Y remain range bound within triangle consolidations
• Bull setup in #DXY remains intact, though the near-term correction appears incomplete
• Looking for a resumption in the bull trend in rates and the US$
• #BTC warning of further downside risk in broader risk assets
Latest Update 👇
https://t.co/1Xx9YilrGS

[Mars Capital Partners @MCPResearch]

Assessing inflation impacts.

Growth momentum resilient & broadening input price pressures may test the “wait-and-see” policy response to the energy shock.

This wk: US #PCE inflation, Q2 growth data, #RBNZ, #ECB minutes, Aus #CPI

Weekly Macro Outlook 👇

https://t.co/TpRpsC7cPJ

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Following this week’s “Reversal Risk” Update:

#SPX - the hourly chart shows enough waves in place to potentially complete the extended 2026 rally.
Note that upside targets have been met as bearish momentum divergence builds...
Bears need to see downside follow-through to help confirm a bearish change in trend.

https://t.co/1Xx9YilrGS

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Reversal Risk.
#SPX / #Nasdaq show potential for a completed rally as we await confirmation of a bearish change in trend.

Across markets:
• Global rates #TYX & #DXY threatening to break higher
• Crude Oil testing overhead resistance but the bullish outlook remains intact
• #Bitcoin reversal risk

Latest Update 👇
https://t.co/3QQUiu8LWV

[Mars Capital Partners @MCPResearch]

Inflation risks build.

Optimism over AI, Trump-Xi summit gave way to a sharp ���️ in global bond yields, as geopol risks persisted & inflation pressures broadened.

This wk: Global #CPIs, Flash #PMIs, #FOMC/#RBA minutes, Warsh sworn in. Full Outlook 👇

https://t.co/sG5t1msGgI

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

@Theonetheonly35 I hear you, however the #DJT is a recent example of a major wave 5 without rsi divergence...

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Fair comment — although that pinned post (our 6th April Update) was actually an important turning point for us (see below).
The corrective decline scenario shown in the first chart ultimately failed to confirm, but within that same update we had already started outlining the possibility of a bullish path back to new ATHs if key resistance levels were reclaimed and the geopolitical backdrop stabilized.
The process for us is more about tracking how probabilities evolve around our scenarios at important turning points as market structure changes.

[Dario Mofardin @Trader_Mars]

Caveat Emptor.
#SPX / #Nasdaq have now met upside targets and we are increasingly alert to the potential for trend exhaustion and a bearish reversal.

Best to await evidence of a reversal before fighting this trend.

Across markets:
• Bullish outlook on Oil, rates & USD remain intact
• Gold: consolidating but retains potential for a final push to new ATH’s
• Crypto: testing resistance with reversal risk

Latest Update 👇
https://t.co/3QQUiu8LWV

[Mars Capital Partners @MCPResearch]

Inflation, geopolitics, and the Fed.

Conflict in 11th wk - US growth & labor data remain resilient, but inflation risks and supply disruption continue to build.

This wk: US #CPI #PPI, #RetailSales, #Fed Powell → Warsh, Trump/Xi summit

Full Outlook 👇

https://t.co/bBkuh6l8cL