As expected, with the fiscal headwinds fading and monetary headwinds (falling credit growth till 1HFY26) becoming tailwinds (credit growth accelerating), GDP growth is surprising on the upside, and should help push up consensus trend-growth estimates to 7%-plus. That is, with a neutral fiscal and monetary policy, the economy should still register 7.5% growth.
In this light, I was shocked to see the ill-educated and egregiously wrong claims made by some that if the 'original' base of June-2025 quarter was used, growth in the June-2026 quarter would be much lower.
The new series introduced in Feb-2026 cleaned up the data and also significantly improved the methodology. For those who track this for a living (and I used to be one such till 45 days ago) - the downward revision in the base was known in March (see our note published on 1-Mar):
https://t.co/3KCHsbIUV9
As our note acknowledged, the new series increased credibility of estimates of real output.
That claim is so obviously wrong that several logical rebuttals have already been made. But bad information tends to travel further than good information, and so it is important to reiterate and reinforce the argument.
That such claims got traction is itself surprising, given that easy-to-track and not-possible-to-fudge indicators of economic activity have been so robust. While June-quarter data was strong, that momentum has picked up:
- personal vehicle (cars, SUVs) dispatches grew 35% YoY in August despite just 9% growth in exports. Even two-wheeler growth is now >20% (though helped by strong exports).
- And if that was consumption, commercial vehicle dispatches grew >40%.
- tax collection growth has picked up meaningfully. This is as real as it gets.
- Credit growth continues to surprise on the upside (albeit on a low base). Last year most believed the then-weak credit growth was a demand problem, whereas we steadfastly stated it was a supply issue - it has for now been addressed.
- indicators of construction are robust.
Hopefully, now there will be fewer people asking "why private sector investment is weak," given that there is clear evidence of investments.
That said, there is still slack in the economy, as seen in weak real-wage growth. It may take several quarters of above-trend growth for that slack to tighten, and bring back sticky inflation pressures.
Kerala once supplied 55–65% of nurses in some private hospitals. Today, its share has dwindled to 10–25%, while recruitment is increasingly shifting to UP, Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Manipur, Sikkim and Mizoram.
The post-Covid shift is striking. In lot of Delhi-NCR hospitals, North Indian nurses now account for 20–30% of the workforce, while Kerala’s share has fallen sharply.
The reasons for diversification of India's health workforce among other things is attributable to the rapid expansion of nursing colleges in Tier-2/3 India. via @timesofindia
When Concorde came to Mumbai ✈️
This incredible photograph captures Concorde approaching Santa Cruz Airport, Mumbai, in June 1972.
Concorde 002, the British-French supersonic airliner prototype, had flown from Bahrain to Mumbai as part of its global demonstration and sales tour.
The flight was meant to showcase a future where London could be reached in just a few hours. Concorde even made a stop in Mumbai as the manufacturers hoped Air India might consider buying the aircraft.
Air India ultimately said no, with its officials reportedly questioning the aircraft’s long-term economics.
And this wasn’t CSMIA.
This was Mumbai’s old Santa Cruz Airport, 1972.
There are also stories that after leaving Mumbai, Concorde’s low-altitude flight over the Kolhapur region caused sonic effects that reportedly broke windows. The story is fascinating, but contemporary documentation for this particular incident remains elusive.
#concorde #oldmumbai #aviation
Internet is now full of Gandhi family's hugging videos. Vips, wives of Vips, friends .. you name it, it is there. Trust @RahulGandhi to shoot in his own foot. @INCIndia
When people were abusing PM Modi's mother during the CJP protest, Abhijeet Dipke said, "Abusing someone isn't a crime. That's just what Gen Z does these days."
Today, the same Dipke is asking why Saurav Das's mother is being brought into the Saurav Das controversy, saying that Saurav is doing great things for the country.
The irony is that no one has even mentioned Saurav's mother, let alone abused her. Yet Dipke was quick to jump in and play the victim card.
This is Pradip Prabhu 🙏, works for Tribals. Was on Sonia Gandhi's NAC writing policies. Runs an NGO in Palghar. Was dean at TISS under Sonia Gandhi rule.
His real name is Peter Demello. He is an ordained Christian priest.
Dear @GiorgiaMeloni@ItalyinIndia
This is my leader of opposition.
They do not represent India and the Views of Indians.
We are ashamed to have such opposition leader.