MD Pham

Surgeon. Angel Investor. Portfolio Manager.
Posts are notes to self only, NOT investment advice.
@VanderbiltU
Forgot to graduate @Dartmouth

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

Reviewing past performance (which is NOT predictive of future returns), our ALGO $SPX system’s track record remains extremely strong: a 39% annualized log return versus the S&P 500’s 8.5% buy‑and‑hold log return over the same period.
This isn’t a forecast of future outcomes, but with a maximum historical drawdown of only 15% compared to $SPY’s 36% over the past six years, we remain highly optimistic about the system’s resilience going forward.
Not advice.
$SPY $SSO $SDS $VOO $RSP

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

2/10/26:
A dollar saved is a dollar earned. Sitting out during the neutral signal spared the portfolio some unnecessary shaking. Now the Algo’s $SPX signal has flipped back to BUY — so we’ve re‑entered with $SPY, $QQQ, and a basket of macro ETFs.
Since sharing the system on X, we’ve consistently outperformed the S&P 500 on both a nominal and risk‑adjusted basis by avoiding the wrong side of the market’s currents.
Not advice.

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

Red Origin?

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin New Glenn rocket explodes during a static-fire test.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Everyone should read what Senior Vice President of Exxon Neil Chapman says about the oil price surge coming in 2-3 weeks

The next wave of the energy shock is approaching fast

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

Translation: Iran will get attacked (as soon as this weekend)

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP: IRAN CONFLICT WILL END VERY SOON

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

@missrobbie67 100%

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

6 down...
6000 to go.
Victory coming soon?

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US announces it has "eliminated" six Iranian small boaters that were attempting to interfere with commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Take a look at Trump's trades.

You can see a large majority of the millions traded were recently in the new year, and especially after the Iranian war.

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

Most people know A0C didn't learn much in college. She's trying to show she didnt learn much in high school either.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"The American Revolution was against the billionaires of their time," AOC has said.

[Quiver Quantitative @QuiverQuant]

JUST IN: The Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund just filed another $470,000 of spending against Thomas Massie.

There has now been more than $20,000,000 of outside spending in this race.

It is the most expensive House primary in history.

Track election spending on Quiver.

[Yahoo Finance @YahooFinance]

Whirlpool CFO says appliance demand hasn't been this low since "the great financial crisis."

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

LMAO

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Marijuana Vendors Sued For Allegedly Not Warning Consumers Of Risks https://t.co/4hVPOQ5vYA

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

Gas price matters

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Shake Shack Shares Crash Most On Record; McDonald's CEO Warns Of Faltering Consumer https://t.co/Z2vRxKlYbu

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

🚨 Saudi Arabia and Kuwait Both Cut U.S. Base Access, Forcing Pause of Project Freedom

Trump’s abrupt pause of “Project Freedom” came after backlash from key Gulf allies led by Saudi Arabia, for being blindsided by the operation’s announcement, according to NBC News. Drop Site’s Ryan Grim later reported that a U.S. administration official confirmed Kuwait also cut off access, basing, and overflight “ABO” access.

NBC reports Saudi Arabia suspended U.S. access to Prince Sultan Airbase and Saudi airspace after Trump announced the operation without properly coordinating with Gulf allies. A call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly failed to resolve the dispute. Qatar was contacted only after the operation had already begun, while Oman was not coordinated with until after Trump’s announcement.

Without Saudi and Kuwaiti airspace, U.S. aircraft could not provide the defensive umbrella needed to protect ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, making the pause effectively unavoidable.

Sources: NBC News, Drop Site’s Ryan Grim (@ryangrim)

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

@grok @real_bullish @TrendSpider Update @grok

[Libertarian Party @LPNational]

“We” have a housing crisis. 🤨

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

Backstreet looking for buyers of his stonks
Source: his past behavior
$SPX $NDX

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*ACKMAN SAYS WE'RE ABOVE A STUPIDLY CHEAP MARKET BOTTOM

[Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz]

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue.

On April 21st, the left screen moved first.

I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug.

At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy.

On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me.

At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire.

Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83.

I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags.

My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports.

The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026:

Reviewed.

That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one.

Let me show you my flags.

March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it.

March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it.

April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it.

April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it.

April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it.

That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one.

The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March.

Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012.

Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence.

Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets.

The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade.

I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email.

The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action.

One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared.

One account is a coincidence. But there were six.

Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000.

My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger.

March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes.

The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event.

The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting."

Then the White House sent the email again.

I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread.

I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated.

But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed.

Zero prosecutions.

As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations.

I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations.

The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still.

In my field, we call this price discovery.

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

Agree with @peterlbrandt. We see $27-35K by ... October 2026

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Bitcoiners
Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushrooms
This is called a channel $BTC
While it does not preclude further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern
The Factor Report reports on classical chart analysis https://t.co/6nRit1xsVp

[MatrixMysteries @MatrixMysteries]

“Delta Dental called itself a nonprofit — while paying its CEO $48 million in 4 years.”

Her compensation reportedly rose from $4.5 million a year to $15 million.

Meanwhile, provider pay was cut and reimbursements barely moved.

Nonprofit for taxes.
For-profit at the top.

[MacroEdge @MacroEdgeRes]

Despite the Trump ceasefire, fertilizer prices in the United States remain high due to ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

Rising nitrogen fertilizer costs are adding $30–55 per acre for corn farmers, squeezing already tight profit margins

#MacroEdge

[MD Pham @MDPhams]

All evils are permanently transitional, income tax included

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

1913 “trust us” they said. “The federal income tax will only apply to a few people and it won’t be much.” Repeal the 16th amendment.