Medium

#BTC #Altcoins
Defi maximalist - not financial advice.
Observe, Adapt, Overcome.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

I SOLD IT ALL HERE.

Life changing money...

I am going to have a cool Whisky now.
Wake me up in 2 years.
Have fun!

[Medium @MediumNobody]

@AlgodTrading What if agents go rogue?

[Medium @MediumNobody]

80k is probably as 58k. If we go to 80 tho, I am gonna reconsider reopening short. Right now, everything is closed. No position is position. Observe.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

I'm thinking about buying a Long position and being early in the new bull run. But not at these levels. Sentiment is fcked up, so you can imagine retracing back to 70-75k. If that happens, maybe I will open next short, but it depends on how long it will take to be there. Observe

[Medium @MediumNobody]

@AlgodTrading What are you talking about, bro? It's a casual bear market. It is the same each cycle.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

Ok, I've added another position here. $BTC short x3 at 74 078 USD. I can double this one a few times, so I feel safe if it goes up.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

I closed the short here at exactly 65% UP. At 62800 USD per 1 BTC. I still think we could go lower. Even tho I am planning to buy a long-term, but for now observing the prices.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

This seems like a decision point for a direction for the next 1/2 months. Still waiting for 60k

[Medium @MediumNobody]

Lower - let Mikey sell more BTC and see what does happen.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

What would be the #bitcoin price when this starts the death spiral?

[The Assembly @InTheAssembly]

For 5 years Michael Saylor told the world he would never sell Bitcoin.

Last night that changed.

On Strategy’s Q1 2026 earnings call, Saylor admitted his company will probably start selling.

This is the complete opposite of what he has been preaching since 2020.

Strategy holds 818,334 Bitcoin at an average cost of $75,537 per coin.

That’s $61.8 billion deployed into Bitcoin since August 2020.

Nearly 6 years of relentless buying.

Bitcoin is now around $81,000.

Their entire stack is up around 7% in almost 6 years.

That’s roughly 1% per year.

The S&P 500 returns about 10% per year on average.

Bitcoin itself is up 700%+ over the same period.

Strategy bought Bitcoin the entire way up and still barely broke even.

This is what happens when you buy aggressively at every price with no discipline.

You drag your average cost higher and higher until you have no margin of safety left.

And now they have a real problem:

Strategy issued a preferred stock called STRC that pays an 11.5% annual dividend.

That’s $1.5 billion in dividend obligations they have to fund every year, no matter what Bitcoin does.

So when Bitcoin dropped from $87K to $68K in Q1, Strategy posted a $12.5 billion net loss.

The largest in the company’s history.

Now Saylor has to sell the very thing he built his entire brand on never selling, just to pay dividends on a financial product his own company created.

When we start buying BTC again, we will share it here.

Turn on post notifications so you don’t miss our alerts, this is VERY important.

A lot of people will wish they followed us sooner.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

IMO, we are still in a bear market - and I put money where my mouth is.

We can go even to 95k, still, I play to see 60k once again this year.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

85-90k, consolidation (1-3 months), and 55k?

#btc $btc #bitcoin

[Medium @MediumNobody]

@AlgodTrading At the bottom of what? Because not ONLY on the cycle bottom.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

This was just casual pump and dumb. I should better manage my positions. Lessons learned.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

Shorting $baby now at 0.014279 x1 leverage.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

And here is an even better lesson for $hyperliquid plays:

[Medium @MediumNobody]

Also done this analysis - img.
To confirm if my short $BTC position is good for the next doubles, or if I am mistaken.

There is still a risk, but the odds look right, so keeping my shorts on #btc for longer.

Lessons learned.

[Medium @MediumNobody]

@duonine Will it still be true when agents increase transactions by a magnitude?

[Medium @MediumNobody]

I built a hyperliquid double position strategy simulator.
It knows how to properly predict double position entry and when you are going to be liquidated.

Especially for this custom MM that is changeable based on max coin leverage.