$bmnr
HOW THE MARKET SCREWED TOM LEE ON BMNR AND WHAT TO DO NOW
This is not Financial advice. This is just my opinion based on my experience with bmnr.
1. My Thoughts Initially
My initial interest in bmnr came as a result of looking at its call option premiums. I felt it was a little early for crypto, especially ethereum, to rocket to the moon based on it's widespread potential use on Wall Street, for tokenization, and for other uses.
However, I felt that a premium over 10% for a month was definitely worth investigating.
When bmnr was $60, I thought it had too much risk even to sell options against.
When it fell to $54, and the option premiums were even greater, I felt the stock could drop to the high 40s, but it might take a while to drop, so I bought the stock at around 53 and sold options, but completely sold out my positions when the stock dropped to $47 and simultaneously the premiums dropped substantially. I lost about $1.50 a share.
At that time, I took a look at both bmnr and mstr.
I realized two things. First, you could short bmnr then sell or short ethereum, which would benefit your short position in both bmnr and ethereum.
Second, I realize that mstr was in a much more vulnerable position, and felt that the markets could sell both mstr and bmnr short and they could potentially just drive down the price of Bitcoin, which would affect both Bitcoin and ethereum negatively.
In that manner, it became very profitable to conduct these shorts, and then simply buy bitcoin and ethereum much cheaper.
2. Crypto Winter
Also, everyone kept talking about a crypto winter that could take bitcoin below below $60,000 and ethereum below $1,800.
What I couldn't understand is people advocating buying bmnr or mstr while expecting a crypto winter. That just doesn't make any sense, unless you're attempting to trade it for a couple months and then get out, but I never think it's a good option to trade against Wall Street, because they always have the upper hand.
I believe crypto winter was a legitimate cycle when cryptocurrencies had no real prospective uses in the near future.
But as bitcoin and ethereum are being used more and more for stablecoins, payments and tokenization of all types of assets, I think the argument that you will continue to have down cycles related to crypto winters seems pretty ridiculous. Why? Because they will have ongoing earnings and value that will get greater with utilization.
3. The Structural Problem with Tom Lee's Strategy
As I've posted before, I think Tom Lee's strategy would have worked beautifully had ethereum continued to increase in value.
He could keep raising capital which would be accretive to current shareholders and keep buying ethereum until he got to his 5% goal.
The problem with that strategy, however, is it doesn't work at all when the ethereum price is falling, and suggesting that the crypto winter was coming up is is a factor that he should have considered in that strategy.
He now is in the position of holding off on buying crypto at a lower price because it is now dilutive to the current shareholders when mnav is less than one.
So it appears he is slowing his purchases at a time when ethereum is at its lowest cost. It doesn't make sense if you're acquiring an asset to not buy more of it at a lower price than a higher price, but he's now in the position that raising capital dilutes current shareholders and therefore he may be reluctant to buy in the same large quantities.
To his credit, he may be expecting a crypto winter now, and is holding off larger purchases until ethereum gets to be $2,000 or lower. In fact that is a strategy I have used in purchasing sofi stock, when it drops I simply buy a little more then if it drops another dollar I buy twice as much and if it drops another dollar I buy four times as much, so we'll have to wait to see what his strategy is on that.
The real issue is touting eoy prices of $7,000 to $10,000 in this context.
CONT. BELOW
these people started 2025 thinking they were on the precipice of something huge only to soon learn that their moment of “cultural domination” had already passed, and i think that’s beautiful. happy new year
Fascinating how you never hear these dubious psychoanalytic explanations for the jewish hatred of their host populations.
Only dislike for one specific group is pathologized in this way.