Something very strange happened at the Communist Party's 5th Plenum last week, its most important meeting this year.
They issued a massive resolution at the end of the meeting together with an official commentary on it by Xi Jinping and, if you read both, you're left with one overwhelming impression: it's crisis time inside the Party.
I'm not exaggerating, check the vocabulary they're using: Xi talks of "viruses eroding the Party's healthy body" (侵蚀党的健康肌体的病毒, qīnshí dǎng de jiànkāng jītǐ de bìngdú) and "stubborn chronic diseases" (顽瘴痼疾, wánzhàng gùjí), with problems so "shocking" (触目惊心, chùmù jīngxīn) that the Party has to "turn the blade inward" (刀刃向内, dāorèn xiàng nèi) - in effect, self-mutilate to get the poison out.
Heck, it was the very theme of the meeting: all about hard discipline with Xi saying he wants to send "a strong signal that things will get stricter the further we go" (越往后越严, yuè wǎng hòu yuè yán).
You don't do that when things are going well.
Except that - and here's the paradox - factually speaking, things are going well in China. One can even say that - looking back centuries - China is at the very height of its power.
This is no exaggeration either: China makes nearly 30% of everything manufactured on the planet, has a record $1.19 trillion trade surplus despite Trump's tariffs, and is in the lead in 69 of 74 critical technologies according to the (hardly pro-China) Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
It's also, geopolitically, more secure than it's been in a long time: in a truce with Washington with Xi having just been welcomed at the White House with a pomp very few have ever been granted - Trump personally waiting for him on the tarmac - while the rest of the world keeps flocking to China, now the world's favorite diplomatic destination.
So what gives, how do you reconcile these 2 things?
I'd argue that China is having its own Fukuyama moment, except in reverse.
Remember the West in the early 1990s at the height of its power: Francis Fukuyama declared "the end of history", with liberal democracy as the "end point of mankind's ideological evolution".
In other words we concluded we had reached perfection, that there was nothing left to fix. History had ended: we were the final form of human civilization. Maximum hubris.
We all know how long that lasted...
China, now at its peak, is taking the exact opposite route. This is not just a supposition by me: last week's resolution literally makes it a rule - the longer the peace lasts, the more the Party must "strengthen its sense of peril" (增强忧患意识, zēngqiáng yōuhuàn yìshí) and "think of danger" (思危, sī wēi).
China, officially, also keeps referring to the so-called "cave dialogue" (窑洞对, yáodòng duì): a 1945 conversation in Yan'an where an educator, Huang Yanpei, warned Mao that every Chinese dynasty had followed the same arc - tough at the start, then soft and rotten once comfortable.
"Good times create weak men", basically, 80 years before the meme.
Which is an old Chinese idea: 2,300 years ago, Mencius summed it up with 生于忧患,死于安乐 (shēng yú yōuhuàn, sǐ yú ānlè, "adversity keeps us alive, comfort kills us").
The resolution, and Xi's commentary on it, keep referring to this new strict doctrine that's officially called "self-revolution" (自我革命, zìwǒ gémìng) as the "second answer" to the "cave dialogue". In other words as China's way of escaping history, of preventing the "good times create weak men" curse.
So, it's "end of history" versus "escaping history", maybe both hubristic in their own way - nobody escapes history forever - but with one big difference: the first stopped looking for its own flaws, the second has made obsessing about them its official doctrine.
That's what I look at in my latest article - from a 3,000-year-old bathtub inscription to the 42 generals who fell off their horses - and why China's obsession with its own flaws might be the most underrated strategic advantage in the world. Or its biggest weakness: https://t.co/t3PUsYr6mC
PRÓXIMO CURSO QUE LANÇAREMOS SERÁ
"Darcy Ribeiro e a formação do povo brasileiro", de autoria do antropólogo @urielirigaray (sigam!)
Vejam no fio o que a EPN já disponibiliza para formar novos nacionalistas.
https://t.co/LlYy2LXNtQ
Confira um trecho do curso Trabalhismo: História e Ideias, lançado essa semana na Escola do Pensamento Nacional pelo Felipe Zorzi.
Alô @MegaZorzi !
Matricule-se já!
https://t.co/DUxWagxRw9
Quer conhecer a fundo o Trabalhismo? Na Escola do Pensamento Nacional, o curso de Felipe Zorzi (
@MegaZorzi) explica das origens até os desafios atuais. Como a mais importante corrente política da história do Brasil se construiu e qual seu futuro?
https://t.co/DUxWagyplH
😱🚨GRAVE! Renan questiona possível interferência da Meta nas eleições brasileiras após Nikolas Ferreira e outros influenciadores de direita atingirem números acima da média global no Instagram e no Facebook.
“Se provado, a eleição pro parlamento teria que ser anulada.”
🇸🇦🇾🇪 Today's Saudi offensive—an attempt to retake the Yemeni Red Sea coast—ended in total collapse
The operation involved 100 Saudi fighter jets, thousands of fighters, and hundreds of military vehicles.
Initially, Saudi-backed forces, supported by the 100 fighter jets, managed to capture Marib and the Dhubab airport.
However, Iranian drones and missiles proved far more effective than the 100 fighter jets; the offensive was quickly halted, and Saudi forces withdrew completely.
Saudi media—including major outlets like Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya—had begun spreading widespread fake news claiming the capture of the strategic city of Mokha, only for the entire story to be immediately exposed as a massive lie.
In addition to that disaster for Saudi forces, the third-largest city, Taiz—along with thousands of their fighters—fell under a complete siege by the Houthis.
BREAKING: Israel fed the CIA a fake Iranian assassination plot against Donald Trump to manipulate U.S. foreign policy and damage Trump's growing ties with Turkey, per WaPo. CIA had "low confidence" in the intelligence.
U.S. officials believe Israel fabricated the threat to push Trump to restart the war on Iran. The alleged plot was relayed during Trump's July 8 visit to Turkey, prompting an elaborate Secret Service operation where Trump was secretly flown to Britain.
Israel's warning was not about saving Trump's life. It was about shaping U.S. policy. A former official said it "fit a broader pattern" of Israeli intelligence designed to influence presidential decision-making. Turkish officials believe the report was fabricated to derail Trump's Iran negotiations and block Turkey's F-35 acquisition.
The U.S. was played. Turkey was locked down. And Israel got what it wanted.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran-U.S. Memorandum of Understanding: Full Details
Phase 1 | Upon announcement of the MoU (effective immediately):
– Upon announcement of the MoU, both sides declare an immediate, complete and permanent end to all hostilities in the region, including Lebanon.
– Upon announcement of the MoU, the United States declares the immediate and complete lifting of the U.S. naval blockade against Iran.
Phase 2 | After Signing of the MoU (30-day period):
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States confirms its commitment to non-interference in Iran’s domestic affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States affirms that it will not increase the amount of troops or military assets present in the region, nor impose any new sanctions during the negotiations.
– Upon signing the MoU, Iran reaffirms its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and confirms that it will never produce, develop, or acquire a nuclear weapon.
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States declares that it will provide Iran with half of its frozen funds, amounting to a value of $12 Billion, to be made available in a non-reversible manner within 30 days, with a commitment to make the remaining half available during the subsequent 60 days.
– Upon signing the MoU, the United States will issue sanctions waivers for Iranian oil, gas, and petrochemical exports, effective immediately, with a commitment to extend these waivers permanently once a final agreement is reached.
– Upon signing the MoU, the U.S. will begin immediate consultations with Israel to present a short term timeframe for a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, including points occupied following the 2024 Israel-Hezbollah agreement.
– Upon signing the MoU, Iran confirms it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic, according to certain specified arrangements determined by Iran, within 30 days.
Phase 3 | Negotiations on a Final Deal (60-day period + possible extension):
– The 60-day negotiating period will begin once all the terms of the MoU have been met in the previous 30 days.
– The 60-day negotiating period can be extended by mutual agreement of both parties.
– During these 60 days, the U.S. will make the remaining $12 Billion of Iran’s frozen assets available.
– During these 60 days, the U.S. will present plans for a reconstruction fund for Iran, amounting to a value of at least $300 Billion, funded partially by Gulf states.
– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions on a permanent solution to nuclear-related matters, including enrichment, the existing uranium stockpile, and the fate of the nuclear sites.
– The U.S. and Iran will begin detailed discussions regarding the lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran, including primary, secondary, U.S. and UN sanctions, as well as the withdrawal of all UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran.
– A monitoring mechanism will be established to supervise the implementation of a final agreement.
– The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council Resolution.
@Middle_East_Spectator
EXPECTED TERMS OF US-IRAN PEACE DEAL:
1. Extends ceasefire between US and Iran for 60 days
2. Begins 60-day negotiation period for technical discussions around Iran's nuclear program
3. Removes US Naval blockade and reopens Strait of Hormuz
4. US will commit to discuss sanctions relief with Iran
5. US will commit to discuss the release of frozen Iranian funds
6. Peace deal includes permanent end to fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon
7. Final agreement to be signed on June 19th in Switzerland
We expect to receive more detail on terms shortly.
Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.
We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.
With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.
@realDonaldTrump@JDVance@SecRubio@SteveWitkoff@SEPeaceMissions@drpezeshkian@mb_ghalibaf@araghchi
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.
In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.
🚨VEJA - Waack diz que não muda nada EUA colocarem o Brasil na lista de países não aliados, pois eles tratam pior aliados do que adversários
“Postura dos EUA é de exigir mais que alinhamento a política deles. Exigem vassalagem, que os irmãos Bolsonaro traduzem como amizade.”
🇮🇷 Mojtaba Khamenei just published a new message as Iran's negotiators sit in Doha. The highlights:
• Called the war against the U.S. and Israel a victory for the Islamic resistance
• Said Israel is nearing the final stages of its "cursed demise"
• Declared America will no longer have safe military bases in the region
• Called on Iranian Hajj pilgrims to spread the message of Iran's victory to fellow Muslims worldwide
• Invited all Islamic nations to unite toward a new regional order
Not exactly the language of a country ready to make concessions.
Source: @Rahbarenghelab_
🚨IRAN NEW THREE STAGE PEACE PLAN
Stage 1:
✅ End War in 30 Days Including in Lebanon
✅ Gradual Opening of the Strait of Hormuz,
✅ Lift U.S Blockade
✅ U.S. Military Withdrawal from Iran's Borders
✅ Iran to clear mines.
Stage 2:
✅ Complete Freeze on Uranium Enrichment for 15 Years.
✅ After 15 years Resume at 3.6%
✅ No storage of Enriched Uranium
✅ No Dismantling of nuclear infrastructure.
✅ Sanctions relief
✅ Frozen asset release tied directly to nuclear steps.
Stage 3;
✅ Iran-Arab strategic dialogue to build a regional security architecture
✅ Non-aggression commitment that covers Israel.