Marc Gerstein

Big investment stories based supported by quant factors.

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

The prospect of an end to the war with Iran briefly sparked hopes that lower oil prices and interest rates would boost housing. That would help, but we need much more….

Contrary to misplaced beliefs that pandemic-era mortgage rates could become a new normal, the reality is that lower mortgage rates can’t sustainably boost housing.

The problem, affordability, can only be solved by a massive boost in home supply, enough to bring sky-high home sticker prices back to earth.

That will need serious government prodding. After many years of resistance to higher density, I now see the tide turning, as lawmakers recognize the urgency of the issue.

For those willing to look ahead and around corners, there are several ETFs that offer sound, but varying, exposure to the overall housing area (not just homebuilders).

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

I'm Seeing Catalysts For The Inevitable Housing Upturn: 4 ETF 'Buy' Ideas

https://t.co/SV02blkg1F

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

I liked Strategy (MSTR) as a bitcoin HODL (Hold On for Dear Life) “intelligent leverage” play that outperformed bitcoin by regularly increasing bitcoin held per common share.

I also liked two of its preferred issues; STRK because convertibility softened MSTR’s volatility and STRC, because its dividend would fluctuate to whatever level would keep the stock near $100.

I respect MSTR’s top execs as very smart guys, perhaps even geniuses. But as MSTR evolves, I’m recalling the 2000 book, “When Genius Failed.” MSTR isn’t in danger now, but...

I’m seeing red flags. MSTR seems to be relying much on unreliable past performance. And I now see a lot of complexity which I deem a negative investment factor.

I’m not completely giving up here. I respect management’s intelligence, creativity and its intense desire to openly communicate. But things are still evolving. For now, I’d rather be a spectator

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

Strategy And Its Preferreds: Maybe Later, But I'm Not Now Willing To Bet On Genius

https://t.co/JaxRASIwWC

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

We’re approaching 2030, when quantum computing’s advantage over classical computing will become evident and more commercially meaningful than it is now.

Unlike with classical computing and its 1-or-0 bits, there are several ways to create qubits, quantum’s basic unit of information. Xanadu uses solar (photonic) qubits.

XNDU remains more R&D-oriented than other quantum firms. But on paper, it lays claim to tremendous combinations of speed and accuracy.

Its Penny Lane software platform can be used with any quantum platform. If all goes well, this could work for XNDU as CUDA works for Nvidia.

Based on the quantum story, I’d be bullish. XNDU may become a PFIC (Passive Foreign Investment Company) that can have nightmare consequences for U.S. investors. So I reluctantly say, “Sell."

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

Xanadu Quantum Technologies: An Intriguing Quantum Firm - With A Big Tax Risk

https://t.co/UoF0Dt7NYt

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

$100K? The analysis that could come from those prompts would be obvious AI slop not worth a minimum wage intern. It omits the most important considerations… What is it about the company/stock that is now inspiring/worrying the market. If you nail that, a glance at any one of a number of free or low cost web sites can fill in the rest,

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

While many crave high-profile IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic, or OpenAI, you’d be amazed at the gems you can find among smaller issues that came public in recent months.

Infleqtion, which started trading in 2/26, is one such stock-market newbie. It’s in quantum computing. It uses an approach called "neutral atoms."

Philosophically, INFQ is similar to better-known IonQ. But INFQ’s use of non-charged atoms, as opposed to IONQ’s electrically charged ions, gives INFQ more flexibility. In fact….

INFQ is working in terms of a platform, including computing (of course) and several quantum sensing applications, which are playing important roles in national security and defense.

INFQ intrigues me, so I’m at “Buy.” I thought I’d also like the warrants, but the latter’s complex redemption feature could hurt secondary-market buyers. So for https://t.co/Rou0qZ7XY6, I’m at "Sell."

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

Mega-Sized IPOs Are Hip, But Don't Ignore Infleqtion, A Small February '26 Gem

https://t.co/qQBErEkhas

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

HEICO blew away April quarter estimates, enough so to make me, who isn't into playing the Wall Street beat-the-guidance-game, wonder if I should upgrade HEI from “Hold” to “Buy”.

This is a case of a great (moat-like) business selling FAA-approved jet engines and aircraft spare parts, combined with a very high-valuation stock.

The question was especially important to me—my early first "Sell" ratings didn’t initially consider the role that HEI’s strong company quality should play in determining P/E.

HEI, as a matter of policy, doesn’t provide guidance. So I and others must assess the sustainability of HEI’s powerful growth spurt using early 80s-style do-it-yourself analysis.

Viewing HEI as if I were back in the early part of my career, I assume the second quarter is not a new normal and that I should continue to rate the stock as a “Hold”.

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

HEICO: Strong Momentum, But I Remain On The Sidelines

https://t.co/Baq1oA1Uyw

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

@ESmithz21277 300

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

@Arden_2210 18

left * (left + right) = bottom

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

@Babywwir Bingo! I got 20…. (assuming the music I heard outdoors came, annoyingly, from somebody else’s boombox … if that doesn’t. count, I have 18],

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

Trapped ions, superconducting, annealing, etc. What’s the best quantum computing approach? I expect it will become all-of-the-above—based on each particular user’s needs.

IonQ uses trapped ions—it turns ions (electrically charged atoms) into qubits, the basic unit of quantum computing. It’s slower (by quantum standards) but is the most accurate.

Unlike other quantum firms, IONQ doesn’t seem to be getting any equity investment from the U.S. Don’t panic. IONQ already has lots of equity. And its revenues dwarf peers.

IONQ is spending a ton on R&D and is in M&A mode. But I’m impressed by how it’s making itself better—it's still doing serious company/business building.

This stock isn’t for everyone. That’s ok. The multifaceted stock market serves many different goals. IONQ is a “buy” for those keen on business-building stories rather than current numbers.

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

As Quantum Debates Rage On, IonQ Is Moving From The Lab To ommerec
https://t.co/gemImIHddQ

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

Some companies grow because, well, they consider growth good. Others need a serious kick in the you-know-where to get growing.

Without speculating on how United States Antimony Corporation might have fared had a pre-2024 status quo persisted, we know China gave a good hard kick to UAMY, and other metals.

As we know, China and the U.S. differ on many issues. Acting on one category of differences, China, the world’s leading supplier of antimony, decided in 2024 to restrict exports.

That hurts. Antimony is an important strategic metal necessary, for among other things, defense. So antimony prices soared and the U.S. put its support behind UAMY.

I’d love to say “Great, another rare earth-like stock. I’m bullish on those!” But, UAMY is a mid-stream smelter. It’s moving upstream, but has a long way to go. Hold.

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

United States Antimony To China: Thanks For The Motivation! But Change Is Slow

https://t.co/7mT00sLc6v

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

I covered mining stocks many years ago, when I didn’t have enough seniority to switch to something less hair-raising. Price volatility. Operational risks. Yuk. Phooey!

It’s now time for me to grow the heck up. How can anyone miss the impact our digital revolution (AI and more) is having on demand for key metals!

Having already dipped my toes into the rare earths (MP and USAR), I look now at Brazilian Ero Copper. Brazil has lots of copper (and some gold for added spice).

Volume is rising due to ERO’s having addressed some operating snags at one longtime mine and a new mine flexing its volume muscles. Prices have been good but volatile. But….

Copper’s long-term prospects are amazing. Demand is going to boom, and supply will struggle to keep apace. Volatility won’t vanish, but for a 3- to 5-year horizon, ERO is a solid “Buy.”.

[Marc Gerstein @MHGerstein]

Ero Copper: I'm Not Crazy Enough To Say 'Free Lunch,' But This Situation Comes Close

https://t.co/n71f0KDCr4