Michael Kugelman

Senior Fellow, South Asia @AtlanticCouncil. Writer of @ForeignPolicy's weekly South Asia Brief. Nonresident Senior Fellow @AsiaPacificFdn. Ex-@thewilsoncenter.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

In this new @IndianExpress op Ed, I argue that Sergio Gor’s Kashmir-is-an-important-part-of-India comment is likely more about his ongoing efforts to bolster US-India relations than it is about anything having to do with Kashmir. There’s no reason to think it’s a new US policy.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

If jail personnel don’t give Khan more access to family-another component of the SC order & another top demand of PTI and supporters-that would increase protest prospects. Repressive conditions have made it hard to protest, but IK supporters could have strong motivations to try.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

The political temperature is rising in Pakistan. The govt has defied a Supreme Court order meant to address what’s long been PTI’s biggest concern-Imran Khan’s health. PTI mobilizations are possible, which today’s announcement of army deployments in Rawalpindi likely anticipates.

[ANI @ANI]

#WATCH | Washington DC, USA: On "This is an important part of India" statement by US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor, in Srinagar, South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman, says, "...it's unclear if that reflects actual US policy, but that's something that clearly would be received well in New Delhi. I think that at a moment when the relationship can benefit from a boost, it has gotten one. On the flip side, I think that at a moment when US-Pakistan relations have really been sailing along, the comments that the US ambassador made in Kashmir will not go down well in Islamabad or in Rawalpindi. I think that this is a bit of an unexpected bump for US-Pakistan relations. But let's wait and see. Let's see what the U.S. embassy has to say after this visit... I think we have to be careful not to jump to conclusions too soon. But yes, given what we've seen play out over the course of the last few hours with this visit by Gor to Kashmir, I think it does represent a much-needed boost for the bilateral relationship."

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

Gor also said USG will reconsider its travel warning in J&K, potentially signaling agreement with Delhi’s claim that Kashmir has been “normalized” (eg more peaceful/stable).
Given Gor’s closeness to Trump, these comments have added significance. But they may well be walked back.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

Since arriving in Delhi in January, Gor has pursued the singular goal of patching up ties w/India. This comment will certainly help. But does it reflect actual policy? If so, it would go against years of US policy on Kashmir & risk spoiling a resurgent relationship w/Pakistan.

[Aditya Raj Kaul @AdityaRajKaul]

#BREAKING: US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor: Jammu & Kashmir is an important part of India.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

This could reduce tensions between PTI and the state, which would help a civilian and military leadership dealing w/mounting political, economic & security challenges. Ultimately tensions will remain unless Khan is freed. But this move could create a better environment for talks.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered the jailed Imran Khan to be transferred to a hospital.
This is a major win for his party, which had long sought this move even as the government claimed Khan’s health was in good hands and downplayed reports that his health was worsening.

[Atlantic Council @AtlanticCouncil]

“Pakistan has an enormous interest in ensuring that this [Mecca] arrangement is not perceived as an anti-Iranian or Sunni security bloc,” @Rabs_AA tells @MichaelKugelman.

“Pakistan shares a long border with Iran; it has its own sectarian sensitivities,” she explains.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

On Monday at 9am ET, I’ll be moderating this virtual discussion on the Mecca deal w/@Rabs_AA @AzizAlghashian @muratyesiltas and Bilal Saab. See below for info on how to RSVP and pose questions to the panelists. https://t.co/551GhSD8vy

[Gokul Sahni @Gokul_Sahni]

“In reality, Pakistan’s allies likely wouldn’t come to its aid.

If India carried out strikes on Pakistan, it beggars belief that Saudi Arabia would take up arms against India, another of its close partners.” 1/2

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

The Mecca pact is a mixed blessing for Pakistan. The deal will help advance its interests in the Middle East. But it likely won’t help Pakistan much in its own neighborhood.
This week for @ForeignPolicy: https://t.co/Y5n3G52NHL

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

In this new piece for @htTweets I discuss how the Trump factor likely drove the Mecca pact, and I highlight the challenges-but also the potential benefits-that it generates for India. https://t.co/dYZWLsh3Ng

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

I’m discussing the new Saudi Arabia-Pakistan-Turkey pact in this Spaces section, which will include a focus on the impact on Afghanistan.

[OFA - اوفا @org4afg]

https://t.co/po1riryXri

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

Pakistan wants foreign media focusing on its achievements abroad, not its problems at home. So it’s really shot itself in the foot w/its draconian new rules for foreign media reporting in Pak. These rules have made global headlines & highlight widening repression trends in Pak.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

The deal further entrenches Pak in the evolving security architecture of the Mideast-following the Pak-KSA pact & Pakistan’s recent efforts to strengthen security ties w/other Mideast heavyweights, especially Egypt and Jordan.
Pak’s strategic cachet is on the rise in the Mideast.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

The Pak-KSA-Turkey agreement is a logical outgrowth of the deepening security ties of these 3 countries in recent months. W/its focus on collective regional deterrence w/an eye to Iran, it’ll be received well in Washington, which wants to see more burden-sharing from top allies.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

Pakistan-administered Kashmir has been experiencing unrest for two months. What’s happening there amplifies how public anger with the state, much of it directed at repression, is rising across Pakistan.
This week for @ForeignPolicy: https://t.co/koQcDboVTD

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

Indian PM Narendra Modi is resilient, and he will bounce back and survive the Cockroach challenge. But the recent protest movement has still left him more politically vulnerable than ever before. I explain why in @ForeignPolicy. https://t.co/Q3dOtDQLwJ

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

There’s another, oft-forgotten, factor to consider: Gen Zia banned student unions in the 1980s, and for the most part they haven’t been reinstated. Given Pakistan’s youth bulge and given how central students/young people are to activism, that ban’s legacy shouldn’t be overlooked.

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

Why isn’t Pakistan experiencing a mass youth-led movement for change, as we’ve seen recently in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and now India? It’s a fair Q; the drivers of these movements-corruption, repression, joblessness, alienation-are very present in Pakistan.
Some thoughts:

[Michael Kugelman @MichaelKugelman]

But today, these different movements aren’t merging or uniting. There’s plenty of shared grievances against the state, but not much joining of forces. Why? Perhaps Pakistan’s social cleavages (in a richly diverse country) help explain the absence of a truly mass movement today.