Markets do only go up.
90% of the time.
8% of the time they correct. And 2% of the time they crash. 💥
Below will be crushed when that 2% happens —
1. Those who need the money in next 5-10 years.
2. Those on margin.
3. Those with no cash to buy the crash. 💥
NEW: My conversation with Cem Karsan about the Big Print that's coming: the government stepping in and buying stocks outright, which he thinks could be months away.
Let us know your thoughts in the comments.
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Preview
1:02 There's a major player "bullying" the market
4:33 The five pressures backing Washington into a corner
8:58 How a few stocks are hiding how weak the SP500 looks
16:00 Is buying stocks the government's only move left?
21:59 Why they need a crash, and why it hasn't happened yet
27:32 Who really controls the world's oil right now
34:00 The debt wall nobody is talking about
43:14 His views on Bitcoin, and where he thinks it hits a ceiling
54:25 How much will the market crash?
58:22 The AI story that made him start watching for a trigger
1:05:41 What he'd actually do with his money right now
Follow Cem at @jam_croissant
The last three midterms each began a decline of 10% or more.
Sept 19 2014. Sept 20 2018. Aug 16 2022.
Every one started within a day of opex or VIX expiration.
@jam_croissant read?
The positioning that matters is concentrated in quarterly expirations, so the risk clusters on those dates rather than spreading evenly.
Support flows peak Monday, then drop off into August opex.
@TraderMikeyB@JermalChandler react 👇
$ES $SPX #options #trading
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I asked @HenrikZeberg where he sees gold by 2030.
His answer was $30,000-35,000 an ounce. Sounds crazy but he's looking at what happened in 77-80 when real stagflation hit.
He thinks gold pulls back first when the dollar strengthens. Then goes 5-10x in a year or two once the economy stalls and inflation runs hot.
Full conversation on @RiskTakers000@crypto_banter@Banter_Clips
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What a remarkable run.
Here is every time since 1928 when the S&P 500 rallied to a record by at least 13% (rounded) in 13 days.
Don't take this too seriously.