Michael Moncrieff

Sociocognitive anthropologist. Focused on conflict, radicalization, and legal/policy research. #Whoa! #Science!

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

Why is impulsivity so strongly linked to radicalization? Our findings show that envy connects impulsivity to radicalization, revealing an ‘impulsive-envious pathway’ to aggression. 🧵

https://t.co/YxdjXo0SEz

[Terry Newman @terrynewman]

Everyone has to stop saying attackers have been "radicalized to commit terror." This implies that it wasn't of their own will. People choose to become terrorists.

[Meghan McCain @MeghanMcCain]

Absolutely horrified at what happened to @PeteButtigieg and his family. I am so sick of dirty, cruel politics and am truly deeply upset by the involvement of his children. It is wildly fucked up.

This world has to do better.

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

@elonmusk Awesome team work!

[Mehdi (e/λ) @BetterCallMedhi]

the scariest part of this Anthropic story is what it implies about the timeline and I think most people are completely missing it

Anthropic built a model called Claude Mythos that found thousands of zeroo day vulnerabilities across every major operating system & every major web browser entirely on its own without huuman steering

it it found a 27 yo vulnerability in openBSD which is considered one of the most security hardened OS on earth, a 16 yo vulnerability in FFmpeg in a line of code that automated testing tools had hit 5 million times without catching it & it autonomously chained multiple linux kernel vulnerabilities together to escalate from regular user to full system control, this is the kind of work that used to require elite nation-state level hackers working for months
and here’s what should keep you up tonight

Anthropic is so terrified of what this model can do offensively that they made 3 unprecedented decisions simultaneously, they decided to never release it publicly, they contacted the US gov before publishing anything & they formed a coalition called project glasswing with apple/Google/ microsoft/amazon NVIDIA & 40+ other companies to use Mythos exclusively for defense, when the company that built the model is too scared to let it out of the lab that tells you everything about what we’ve crossedd…

but I think the real story that absolutely nobody is discussing is the second order implication, if anthropic built this then google deepmind can build it, if Google can build it China can build it, if China can build it , every state actor on earth will eventually build it, anthropic chose responsible disclosure but that choice is a luxury of being first

the next team that reaches this capability level might not make the same choice and once a model like this leaks or gets independently replicated every piece of software on earth becomes a potential attack surface

and connect this to the Google quantum paper from last week, quantum computers that can crack BTC in 9 min AND AI models that can find zero days in every operating system autonomously, both arrived in the same month, we’re watching the entire security infrastructure of human civilization get challenged from 2 completely different directions simultaneously

I genuinely think we just entered a new era where the offense-defense balance in cybersecurity has permanently shifted, the window between a vulnerability existing & being discovered just went from years to minutes and the only thing standing between the current internet and total chaos is that the people who built this capability happened to be responsible about it, that is an incredibly thin line to bet civilization on

one last thing that I keep thinking about… mythos scored 93.9% on SWE-bench verified & 77.8% on SWE-bench pro, it outperforms every model ever built at coding and reasoning by a massive margin

anthropic built built the most powerful AI model on earth and chose to lock it in a cage because its offensive capabilities are too dangerous…

Mzrc Andreessen declared AGI is here 3 days ago to pump his portfolio, meanwhile the people actually building the most advanced systems are too afraid to release them, that contrast tells you everything about who understands what’s happening and who is performing for an audience

[Sacha Altay @Sacha_Altay]

One of my favorites paper got published 🥳 It covers a lot of ground and it’s the best summary of my views on misinformation and what to do about it. Give it a read :)

[Derya Unutmaz, MD @DeryaTR_]

As people know, I follow AI extremely closely, but this is shocking even to me! I didn’t expect a social media for AI agents like this to take off in 48 hours! Soon, they can form whole AI agent societies, and then an AI civilization may emerge? AI wierdness is getting wilder!

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

I think one of the biggest issues is that much of our success (e.g., currencies, politics, warfare) depends upon coordination rather than ‘truth.’ AI will undoubtedly disrupt most of the preexisting coordinations we orient our lives by.

https://t.co/4fnmbq0A3T

[Evolutionary Psychology (The Podcast) @EPthepod]

This week, we talk to @hugoreasoning about all things "epistemic". Are we gullible and prone to misinformation? Are we vigilant in favor of our interests? Enjoy the wide-ranging conversation!
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[Daniel Sznycer @dsznycer]

Some have argued that the undeserved success of others elicits envy. But do such undeserved successes—for example, ill-gotten acquisitions—actually elicit envy?

https://t.co/q5yipwWeGq

Cool new paper by @MitchSBLanders & Alex Shaw

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

💀 😂

[Ryanair @Ryanair]

we would never give out headphones

[Evolutionary Psychology (The Podcast) @EPthepod]

This week, we discuss the evolved logic of shame, guilt, and other self-conscious emotions with @dsznycer

https://t.co/oAbTKXtgdl

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https://t.co/ACGSdiuqAW

[Dan Williams @danwilliamsphil]

I was really honoured to be invited on one of my favourite podcasts to talk to two of my favourite social scientists @DavidPinsof @DavePietrasz @EPthepod. Among other things, we talked about:
- beliefs
- evolution
- politics
- Jordan Peterson

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

@JessicaDAyers @DavidPinsof @DavePietrasz 🙌

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

Gallup: % of Americans who are satisfied with the way things are going in U.S. right now

🔵 Democrats - 0% (lowest ever)
🔴 Republicans - 76%

The 76-point partisan gap is the largest Gallup has measured on this question.

[United Nations Geneva @UNGeneva]

“Sanctioning @IntlCrimCourt judges and prosecutors sabotages the fight against impunity and tells the world that power, not justice, rules in the face of atrocity,” say independent @UN_SPExperts.

“The US Government must uphold the rule of law by rescinding these sanctions."

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

Cannot express how much I adore Mexico City 🇲🇽 🐶

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

This article dovetails well with my ongoing research on the status threat regulatory system and its links to envy and violence. Looking forward to seeing how Keith and his colleagues continue advancing this important line of work.

https://t.co/HvYKvw4eIN

[Kyle Thomas @surfkt]

Great TED talk by @sapinker on my PhD research: https://t.co/RJN1O09Ygo

[Sergey Gavrilets @seregavr]

The evolution of zero-sum and positive-sum worldviews https://t.co/vgcpuKkM1H

[Michael Moncrieff @Mike_Moncrieff]

@captgouda24 It was (unfortunately) thanks to the psychology of coordination.

Moncrieff, M., & Lienard, P. (2019). What war narratives tell about the psychology and coalitional dynamics of ethnic violence. Journal of cognition and culture, 19(1-2), 1-38.