Why I like Faulk tonight 👇
• In his last 15 regular season home games, Faulk has cleared 1.5 SOG in 80% of them, averaging 2.4 shots on goal
• He’s also been perfect against the Rangers in the sample shown, clearing in 4 of 4 with a 2.75 SOG average
• The preseason results were mixed, but the shot volume was still there
2 SOG on 3 attempts in one game
0 SOG on 6 attempts in the other
• The Rangers were a weaker matchup in terms of allowing shots to defensemen last season, ranking 27th in SOG allowed to the position and 25th in total shots allowed
• We only need 2 shots on goal, and his recent home history plus the matchup gives him a very realistic path to get there tonight.
Why I like McCann tonight 👇
• McCann has cleared this line in 5 of his last 6 games vs Calgary, averaging 2.33 SOG in those matchups
• His only miss against Calgary came back in October 2024, so I’m not putting much weight on that since it was so long ago
• Calgary is allowing 30.2 shots on goal per game, which ranks 30th in the NHL
• The positional matchup is even better for McCann at LW, with Calgary ranking 31st in SOG allowed to the position
• McCann has also cleared 1.5 SOG in 73% of his last 15 road games, averaging 2.40 shots
We only need 2 shots here. Between the matchup, his history vs Calgary and his road splits, this looks like a very solid spot. 🔥
Why I like Crosby tonight 👇
- Bryan Rust was placed on IR two days ago... Without Rust, Crosby has cleared this line in 87% of his L15, averaging 20.51 minutes
- Crosby is on Pittsburgh’s PP1, giving him additional ice time whenever the Penguins get on the power play
- Expecting a close, competitive game which should keep Crosby’s minutes elevated throughout
Why I like Draisaitl 👇
• With Connor McDavid in the lineup, Draisaitl has cleared this number in 15 straight games shown, hitting at 100% across the L5, L10 and L15 samples
• He’s averaging 10.6 faceoff wins L5, 11.6 L10 and 11.27 L15, all comfortably above this 8.5 line
• Vancouver is basically a neutral matchup in faceoffs, ranking 15th on the season, 19th L10 and 21st L5
• Edmonton and Vancouver are also almost dead even in the overall faceoff matchup, so there’s nothing here that should scare us away from Draisaitl’s usual volume
• We only need 9 wins, which is well below where his recent averages have been sitting
Why I like Saquon today 👇
• I know it’s a goblin, but the board is pretty rough today and this is one of the spots I’m most comfortable with
• Philly should be in position to play from ahead against Chicago, which sets up well for Saquon to get steady second half volume and help close the game out
• I’m projecting him around 17 to 18+ carries, giving us a few attempts of cushion over this 14.5 line
• The Goedert split is the biggest thing for me. In games without Dallas Goedert, Saquon has cleared this number 100% of the time across the L5, L10 and L15 samples
• He’s averaging 24.2 rush attempts over his L5 without Goedert and 23.38 over both his L10 and L15
• We don’t need anything close to those averages here. Just 15 carries gets it done
Why I like Walker 👇
• Walker has cleared this in both games this season, seeing 23 and 24 carries for a 23.5 average
• Kansas City is favored by 10+ points, which sets up exactly the kind of positive game script you want for RB volume
• Last week he already had 17 carries through regulation before the game went to OT, so the workload was there even in a tighter game
• The early season usage has been extremely encouraging. He’s clearly being trusted with a heavy rushing workload when KC can stay on schedule
• I have him projected around 18.5 to 19 carries, putting 17.5 below expectation