Mike Fleet

Iraqi politics watcher 🇮🇶 All views are my own. Love jiggs dinner and masgouf. Petter of dogs/birbs. طالب عربي. Usual caveats apply.🇨🇦🤝🇮🇶

[Mike Fleet @MikeFleet23]

Very excited to have this report published! Through interviews @meganconnelly48 and I conducted though several months, we put together this report on what the recent demands and actions in the KRI around decentralization means, how it works, & how it collides with party politics.

[IRIS @IRISmideast]

Read the newest @IRISmideast report by IRIS Non-Resident Fellow @meganconnelly48 & @MikeFleet23 entitled "Living Apart Together: Decentralized Governance in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq."

https://t.co/gNbiCaLnOS

[Tamer Badawi تامر بدوي @Tamerbadawi1]

An interim deal secured by #Tehran may prove to be a win for its political allies and armed proxies in #Iraq.

Read my @amwajmedia latest on the outlook of AAH, an Iran-aligned Iraqi armed group & party giving concessions but playing the long game. 🧵 👇🏻
https://t.co/vM3uyG1hiz

[Mohammad Ali Shabani @mashabani]

Among the Shia armed groups in #Iraq, Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq is probably the most politically ambitious. It has increasingly shown willingness to go its own way vs other Iran-aligned groups. But somehow, the US keeps finding ways to "push it back in line":
https://t.co/NL1XCluaAi

[Winthrop Rodgers @wrodgers2]

Chief of Staff of the Iraqi Army Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah completes a "Full Barzani" in Erbil for discussions about IOCs resuming oil production, but wanting security guarantees first. KDP had opposed his appointment.

[Sinan S. Mahmoud @sinansm]

Iraqi PM cancels $746m Baghdad airport redevelopment over corruption concerns https://t.co/JMcHE8fWTL

[Winthrop Rodgers @wrodgers2]

This article on Kurdish divisions doesn't ever mention the KDP or the PUK. The main actors responsible for this negative dynamic can't even be named. It reflects the utter banality and uselessness of so much commentary on Kurdistan by its politicians and elite.

[Ali Al-Mawlawi @aalmawlawi]

Another government, another development fund. Before getting too excited it's worth asking how much foreign investment Sudani's fund was able to attract, and how many projects it completed. Zero on both counts.

[Ali Al-Mawlawi @aalmawlawi]

Sudani is having his wings clipped by the judiciary, remeniscent of what happened to Halbusi in 2023.

The elite pact is governed by a set of informal rules. Sudani crossed some red lines in an attempt to surpass his competitors. Now he's being right-sized.

[Sinan S. Mahmoud @sinansm]

Iraq links militia disarmament to September deadline for US-led coalition withdrawal https://t.co/LDWIYCc60o

[Winthrop Rodgers @wrodgers2]

The KDP and the PUK always say they are "ready" and "willing" to make deals and work together. Yet, they never seem to actually do it.

In a new piece for @the_amargi, I look at the "rhetoric of readiness" and explain how it is actually a red flag.
https://t.co/7iy0opBOYU

[Ali Al-Mawlawi @aalmawlawi]

Situating Hashd integration within the broader context of how Iraqi political movements have evolved since 2003 offers insight into the incentives driving groups like AAH and Kataib Imam Ali.

[Tamer Badawi تامر بدوي @Tamerbadawi1]

"Cash moved across borders, government contracts awarded through local fronts, and Iraqi sources point to the involvement of Shiite and Sunni politicians and businessmen." - @SaadoonMustafa
https://t.co/veKD0qgQma

[Winthrop Rodgers @wrodgers2]

This pathetic statement from the minister is unhelpful. To do in 3 months what they failed to do over the course of a decade is delusional. It gives people a false impression about what is likely to happen. Time has run out.

My latest for @inkstickmedia:
https://t.co/9WqShjSIri

[Rudaw English @RudawEnglish]

Halkawt Aziz, Rudaw's bureau chief in Baghdad, filed a report about one of Iraq's most contentious issues - the disarmament of Iran-backed armed groups - a day before losing his life in a traffic accident on the Baghdad-Basra highway on Monday afternoon.

[Tamer Badawi تامر بدوي @Tamerbadawi1]

#Iraq is printing banknotes to pay salaries (inflation ⬆️?) and could face #economic collapse, says Iraqi FM Fuad Hussein. Three potential #geopolitical medium-term consequences:

👉🏻 This means more leverage for the U.S. if #IMF assistance to Iraq is on the table (provided U.S. handing over of withheld oil proceeds is insufficient).

👉🏻 Such assistance may be coupled with more pressures regarding the disarmament of #Iran-aligned Iraqi factions.

👉🏻 The current Iran-Israel escalation over #Hezbollah and whether Iraqi groups respond is a factor.

[Sinan S. Mahmoud @sinansm]

Baghdad wants all weapons under state control. It sounds simple, until you remember that some of Iran-backed militias don’t necessarily agree.

“Achieve genuine sovereignty first, then all other issues can be addressed”.

with @aleeharissi & @Mina_Aldroubi https://t.co/my5Ilzbf4u

[Tamer Badawi تامر بدوي @Tamerbadawi1]

AAH, KIA, SaS announced disarmament & disembedding from the PMF. @USAMBTurkiye endorsed the announcements. We still don't know the details yet.

The reality is, Iran-aligned groups are socially embedded enterprises & it's hard to genuinely get them to disarm. @ForeignPolicy 👇🏻

[Michael Knights @Mikeknightsiraq]

Interesting that all three of the groups that have pledged to disarm (unlikely) in Iraq are all of the Sadrist trend: Moqtada, Qais al Khazali, Shibl al Zaydi. (Akram Kaabi is the exception to the rule 🤣)

The Badr-originated ones have not pledged: Badr, KH, KSS.

[Sinan S. Mahmoud @sinansm]

#Iran-backed militia Imam Ali Brigades has followed the suit of Asaib Ahl Al Haq by saying it will hand weapons to the state.

“The arena today is for the battle of building a strong, capable, sovereign state, unified by all its sons”, it says

#Iraq #US

https://t.co/TlkRUZnIYj

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Trump on Truth Social: I am pleased to announce that United States Ambassador to Türkiye, Tom Barrack, who has done an outstanding job, will be named Special Presidential Envoy to Syria and, likewise, Special Presidential Envoy to Iraq, as we advance our strategic cooperation with the Governments of Syria and Iraq, our relationship with them continues to grow! Tom will remain Ambassador to Türkiye, and operate with the full backing of the United States Department of State. We greatly appreciate the work that Tom Barrack has done, and his continued willingness to serve our Country. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

[Mohammad Ali Shabani @mashabani]

NEW: As #Iraq finds itself under intensified US pressure to carry out security sector reform, one rumored proposal would see the PMU brought under a new federal security ministry alongside several other wings of Iraq’s armed forces.

Proponents of this proposal argue that Baghdad could be able to keep a closer eye on the umbrella fighting forces’s more autonomous brigades.

However, half-measures and poor implementation could see ‘resistance’ factions assert themselves more forcefully inside Iraq’s already fractured governance and security structure.

https://t.co/x9NkH1i8YC