Some news: Today is my first day at @theinformation. I'll be writing about the money flowing into AI with a particular focus on private equity, sovereign wealth funds and other large backers. It's an exciting time to be starting on this beat at a publication I've long admired for its eagle-eyed coverage. My new email is [email protected] get in touch!
our latest story is the first deep-dive on what went wrong at situational awareness, and how it disrupted the life of its 24-year-old founder, leopold aschenbrenner
aschenbrenner is getting married tomorrow in carmel...
details below in @WSJ
This is kind of stunning. It's not just SpaceX's stock that's been getting slammed, even its recent bond sale is doing so badly traders can't remember something similar having happened before. https://t.co/qCvHtuuiAU
Some considerations that many folks seem not to get:
1. It can be a bubble even if the tech works. (For instance, if the tech doesn't have a high-demand use case.)
2. It can be a bubble even if the tech works and has strong product-market fit. (For instance, if the tech cannot be economically viable.)
3. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and has a path to eventual economic viability. (For instance, if profitability takes too long to achieve or makes margin/competition assumptions that fail to materialize.)
4. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, and is currently highly profitable. (For instance, if demand has a hard ceiling and growth stops once the ceiling is reached.)
5. It can be a bubble even if the tech works, has strong product-market fit, is currently highly profitable, and has unlimited future demand.
Literally all it takes for something to be a bubble is for lots of people to over-enthusiastically bet their money on it, and subsequently get panicky.
Importantly, bubbles can be attached both to things that are completely hogwash, like the Metaverse, and to world-changing developments like the Internet or railways. Bubbles don't care. They're brought into existence by the thoughts and feelings of investors, not by actual tech or products.
"The bubble has burst" doesn't mean "the tech didn't work" or "people stopped using the tech." It only means that people got panicky, investor money dried up, and valuations collapsed. Internet adoption didn't stop in 2000.
Couldn't be more proud of my @Reuters colleague @JeffHorwitz & @EngenTham for this enormous achievement. Jeff has deserved this award for years and years for his relentless, groundbreaking coverage of Meta.
Time has not been kind to the legend of Satya Nadella in the the AI era.
It's the worst performing of the Mag 7 this year, Copilot is a dud, and his bets on new leaders have looked shaky.
Defenders are hoping for a Google style turnaround, but I think it could get even worse.
scoop: Microsoft is in advanced talks to lease hundreds of megawatts of data center capacity in Abilene, Texas after Oracle decided not to expand its presence at the site just last week.
More: https://t.co/sFFBB4hHmi
You can keep tweeting "why is everyone leaving xAI"⁉️
Or you can read my story with details on a reorg of senior leadership and an org chart for post-merger SpaceX + xAI in @theinformation ✅
https://t.co/WG6a7D2mQU
Broadcom says Anthropic was its mystery $10 billion customer last quarter—and that the startup placed an order for Google's TPUs (!!)
Anthropic placed another $11 billion order this quarter.
The Information first reported on Google’s plans to sell its TPUs directly to customers, instead of renting them through Google Cloud, in an effort to compete more directly with Nvidia.
https://t.co/N7rNiq8ppi
https://t.co/IYIzhiEseJ
Morgan Stanley, one of the key players in financing the AI race, is considering offloading some of its data-center exposure via a so-called significant risk transfer. https://t.co/R6YJtdIzaz
This week's Hard Fork might be the craziest interview we've ever done.
We asked the CEO of Roblox about the child safety issues that have been plaguing the platform. His response was...well, just listen.
https://t.co/VBjvLmPYP7
Interesting to see the anime accounts pick up on the fact Google trained Gemini 3.0 on TPUs…which has been the case going all the way back to Gemini 1.0, per Google’s announcements