Mine Print Hash

Geopolitics, tech and markets through a monetary lens—mining (#gold), printing (#dollars) and hashing (#bitcoin) as the forces that shape who rises and falls.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/9JZsdrCqbE

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

AI's investment cycle may be shifting from buildout to harvest.

Micron is piling cash and paying down debt as its investments mature. @LeveredUSTs think the signs point to a cyclical CapEx breather and not the end of AI growth.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/MryQEqRflK

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

Sovereign debt stress is hitting the front pages.

At the same time, @LeveredUSTs notes MOVE has jumped above 110, junk spreads are widening, and Skydance's $52B financing is testing how much risk the credit market can still absorb.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/MevvNU1jB6

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/bE2cG8WPI1 may be the end of the Napoleonic model of government.

As credit tightens and AI capex moves into harvesting, @LeveredUSTs & @CameronOtsuka explore how an agentic government interface could reshape the citizen-state relationship.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/ddkjdybyzT

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

Europe is building a new bridge for sovereign debt financing.

The ECB's Pontes framework connects TARGET settlement with permissioned tokenized markets, potentially turning trapped balance-sheet capacity into a new channel for buying sovereign debt across the euro area.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/TeaONKpDwx

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

SoftBank is leaning on junk bonds to keep the AI buildout funded.

Its financing its OpenAI commitment with bonds, margin loans, bank facilities, and private credit at steep rates. @LeveredUSTs argues SoftBank CDS is the key gauge to monitor for cracks.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/VlolVtXnTO

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

Long yields are breaking higher as energy and credit constraints tighten.

@LeveredUSTs connects the US 10-year yield near 5%, France's OAT yield move, refinery outages and diesel scarcity to a deeper late-cycle squeeze: when fuel and financing get scarce, growth gets harder.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/8k2DWyhX3Q

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

Europe is building a new bridge for sovereign debt financing.

Pontes links the Euro system's existing settlement architecture to permissioned tokenized markets. @LeveredUSTs shows how Pontes may turn TARGET balances into new financing capacity for government debt.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/hBAGpXHPJN

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

Western alliances are fragmenting, reshaping resource constraints, capital flows, and money markets, as @LeveredUSTs explains.

The UK faces internal strain, Canada is moving closer to EU defense structures and Ukraine, while U.S.-Poland military ties deepen.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/4efw25Dx4d

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

Slower AI and data center investment may deepen a downturn, while sustained spending could soften the trough. @LeveredUSTs explains why a bottom in long-term yields may signal the next expansion.

[Matt Dines @LeveredUSTs]

We all obviously recognize the world is rapidly changing, but our perfectly understandable distaste for volatility and violence can muddle and prevent us from comprehending the world that “is” rather than what we think it “ought” to be.

Start from the “reserve currency” subject in #4 and work backwards:

4. Iran is part of a much bigger operational dismantling & reorganization of the old offshore dollar system.

Because supply chains in the real economy make up the base layer collateral of the financial economy, the breakup and reforming of marketing relationships in energy commodities like oil from the Persian Gulf or natural gas from Siberia is the other side of the coin to this financial transition.

3. Bessent is fully aware that we can’t go through this transition process without some kinetics. The open-ended variable is the amount of violence this process consumes. It is obvious when comparing different leaders’ actions on the global stage that some want to see it minimized, while others want to ratchet up into a much bigger and destructive conflagration.

2. Think about the financing of the war & conflict from the frame of opposing sides of the negotiation table for the biggest of all businesses that we talked about in #1: the dual global financial and trade franchises.

From where we stand today, it is crystal clear that one faction wants out of the legacy system that puts the American sovereign in a $40T debt hole, while the other makes its living off the rents of the old status quo.

1. The pressure on Iranian airlines this week is just the latest development in this financial and supply chains context: the first-order financial and export chains for Iranian oil in the old system have already been broken down. Domestic prices for refined products in Iran have collapsed to $0.11 to $0.14 a gallon.

International flights offer a path for the “status quo” business operators to arb some of their lost economic profits back, in meaningful size: transform your product (oil) into a higher order service (airline transport), pulling in external revenue while undercutting higher input prices in the rest of world.

The problem with this is a whole lot of players are fed up with the bullshit of the old offshore dollar system, and like the U.S. have decided they too want to move on from the old to the next thing.

Contrary to OP, there’s a large contingency on that side of the table who understand the bigger picture of what’s going on and, while acknowledging that we’re in the fog of war, would assess that Bessent is, in fact, not a total retard.

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

https://t.co/ftptwavj3M

[Mine Print Hash @MinePrintHash]

The Fed hike marks the start of a new hike cycle.

@LeveredUSTs looks at what comes next for Bitcoin, gold, oil, and copper to identify signs that may show whether tightening is working: lower breakevens, wider credit spreads, and softer demand.