Tim Pawul

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Back in January, there was a lot of chatter around how quickly Venezuela could ramp oil production back toward ~2 million barrels per day. I asked Matt Marshall what it would actually take, and his point was that having the resource in the ground is only part of the equation. You still need the capital, infrastructure, experienced people, attractive economics, and enough Govt support to justify the billions of dollars of long-term investment that is needed.
Fast forward to this month and @Chevron announced plans to invest $7B+ over the next five years and more than double its Venezuelan production to ~600,000 barrels per day under improved fiscal, commercial and legal terms. That is exactly the type of capital and certainty Matt was talking about. Venezuela clearly has enormous resource potential, but bringing those barrels back is not as simple as turning the taps back on. The question now is how quickly billions of dollars of new investment can translate into reliable production and what that ultimately means for the global oil balance.
Full Podcast Episode with Matt Marshall, President of AEGIS CTA:
https://t.co/yNrUGL5Ye6

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Over the past 5-6 years, Spicewood Mineral Partners has become one of the larger private buyers of Minerals & Royalties assets, particularly in the Permian. That is why I invited Kyle Bebee - Managing Partner of Spicewood Mineral Partners to speak on the “Oil Focused Minerals Strategies (Permian, Rockies, & Eagle Ford)” panel at my Minerals & NonOp Assembly on October 27th in Houston. I’m looking forward to hearing how Kyle thinks about balancing yield, development timing, basin exposure, and upside in today’s Minerals market.

Minerals & NonOp Assembly Ticket Registration Link:
https://t.co/bjXENtXbqh

For more info on speaking opportunities, sponsorships, and/or dinner tables, please email me at [email protected]

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

At what point does a mineral portfolio become large enough that the market may value it more clearly outside the E&P than inside it?
Last June in a @PakEnergyLLC deep dive, I raised that question around @permianres . At the time, PR disclosed ~88,000 net royalty acres. Today, that position has grown to 120,000+ NRAs across the #DelawareBasin. There are plenty of reasons to keep those minerals inside the E&P: they increase NRI, improve well-level economics and enhance returns on PR’s own development program but the scale of the portfolio is getting harder to ignore.
The obvious precedent is Diamondback / Viper. A separate minerals & royalties vehicle could preserve operating alignment while giving the assets a different investor base, cost of capital and acquisition currency. I am not suggesting PR is preparing to do this, but the portfolio is ~35% larger than when I first raised the question a little over a year ago so it makes you wonder…

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

In Rounders, they talk about the weekend tourists who wander into the poker room and become the “fish” at the table surrounded by a bunch of card sharks.

The Minerals & NonOp world really isn’t all that different because you have inexperienced managers who cannot consistently source the best assets or underwrite risk correctly.

You have the Worms of the world:
Managers willing to push the limits, take excessive risk, or put investors into deals they probably shouldn’t be in.

Then you have the Kanishes:
Conservative, disciplined and very good at what they do. They focus on lower-risk strategies like PDP heavy Minerals & NonOp assets for investors who don’t want to take on a lot of drilling, timing, or development risk.

And then you have the Mike McDermotts:
Managers who really understand the game. They know when to take calculated risk, when not to, and how to use that risk intelligently to generate strong risk-adjusted returns in any market. Even when they are dealt shitty cards.

That brings me to one of the biggest concerns I hear from Family Offices and RIAs around the country: When they sit down at the poker table of Minerals & NonOp investing, they don’t always know who they’re playing with.

• What are fair fund terms?
• What are normal fees?
• What returns should you reasonably expect?
• Which strategies bear the most risk?
• Which basins and asset types fit their investment mandate?
• And most importantly, who are the managers with the experience, track record, reputation, and discipline to be good stewards of their capital?

That’s where Minerals & Royalties Authority comes in. We help investors map out the Minerals & NonOp market, understand industry norms around fund structures, fees, terms, risk and returns, and identify managers whose strategies actually fit their investment criteria.

In other words, we help you find the Mike McDermotts and Kanishes of the Minerals & NonOp space.

Because if you can’t spot the sucker at the table, you want to avoid becoming one… If you are looking to allocate capital to the Minerals & NonOp space, then please email me at [email protected] so we can organize a call to further discuss your investment strategy.

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Years ago, basin-specific pure-play strategies were much more common in the minerals space, particularly in the Permian. Today, as mineral aggregators continue to scale, we are seeing more companies pursue a multi-basin, oil-focused strategy across the Permian, Eagle Ford, DJ, Bakken, PRB, and Uinta.
And as these companies continue to execute larger acquisitions across multiple basins, you don’t have to look very far before seeing Texas Capital Bank involved as a financing partner on a significant amount of minerals deal flow. That is why I asked Gabe Garcia — Managing Director & Head of Upstream at Texas Capital Bank to moderate our “Oil-Focused Minerals Strategies: Permian, Rockies & Eagle Ford” panel at the Minerals & NonOp Assembly on October 27th in Houston.
Gabe and the Texas Capital team spend a tremendous amount of time working with upstream companies, capital providers, and transaction counterparties across the energy sector. That gives him a unique vantage point into how these strategies are evolving, where capital is flowing, and how mineral companies are thinking about scale across multiple basins.

Minerals & NonOp Assembly Ticket Registration Link:
https://t.co/bjXENtWDAJ

For more info on speaking opportunities, sponsorships, and/or dinner tables, please email me at [email protected]

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

One of the things I like about @TokenizedEnergy is how simple they are trying to make the process of investing into Oil & Gas deals. Think of it like CarMax: professionally sourced opportunities are put on the platform at a set price, investors can review the data room and underwriting, and then decide whether they want to participate.

More importantly, they can invest fractionally at whatever dollar amount makes sense (ie $1,000, $10,000 or $50,000+). If you are native to crypto and already have USDC stable coins in your digital wallet, then you can use those to invest in deals as well. Tokenization on the blockchain is what makes all of this possible.

If you’re interested in learning more about earning digital mailbox money by putting Minerals, Royalties & NonOp interests in your digital wallet, then email me at [email protected] or visit https://t.co/O30cOt0pHD

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

One of the best parts about owning minerals & surface assets for the long-term is the upside you never underwrote on day one. I doubt many TPL Corporation investors anticipated increased Nat gas demand from AI Data Centers as part of their investment thesis 5-10 years ago…
@Chevron has discussed building ~2.5 GW of natural gas-fired power generation in West Texas with the potential to scale even larger. In a basin where natural gas can trade at negative prices, bringing that much new demand directly into the Permian could improve local gas economics and potentially influence future drilling activity on undeveloped Minerals.
TPL is especially interesting because they can potentially benefit multiple ways from the same trend: Minerals, surface rents, water, infrastructure, and ultimately stronger in-basin natural gas demand. That is the serendipity upside of owning high-quality minerals & surface assets for a long time, you simply do not know where the next source of value is going to come from.
Full Podcast Episode with Lawrence Labanowski, VP of M&A at TPL Corporation:
https://t.co/3FR1uAcqjl

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

If you are buying Minerals or NonOp, your returns are only as good as the assumptions behind your development timing, type curves, and operator forecasts. @novilabs helps Minerals & Royalties owners and NonOp investors underwrite acquisitions, forecast production & cash-flow, benchmark operators, and monitor portfolios.
I am grateful to have Novi supporting my October 27th Minerals & NonOp Assembly in Houston as an Associate Event Sponsor. If your team is looking to sharpen its underwriting or get more out of its portfolio data, make sure to connect with the Novi team during the event.
Minerals & NonOp Assembly Ticket Registration Link:
https://t.co/bjXENtWDAJ
For more info on speaking opportunities, sponsorships, and/or dinner tables, please email me at [email protected]

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

I have spent the last few weeks talking about Permian takeaway capacity, Waha pricing & the importance of connecting production with growing end markets. @Enbridge $600MM acquisition of Salt Creek Midstream is another reminder that infrastructure is becoming an increasingly important part of the Permian investment story.
This deal gives Enbridge a major crude gathering position in the Delaware Basin that connects into its broader pipeline network and ultimately to the Enbridge Ingleside export terminal near Corpus Christi. In other words, Enbridge is continuing to build a more integrated system from the Permian wellhead all the way to the Gulf Coast. The fact that @Chevron is already a JV partner on part of the system makes the strategy even more interesting.
Minerals, Royalties & NonOp investors may not own the pipeline but infrastructure still matters enormously. Better connectivity to Gulf Coast refining and export markets can improve realized pricing, strengthen operator economics and remove constraints that might otherwise slow future development.
I think the bigger theme is becoming pretty clear: the quality of a Permian asset is increasingly about more than just the rock. Where that acreage sits relative to pipelines, processing, power, water and major end markets can have a meaningful impact on long-term development and value.

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

I have spent the last few weeks talking about Permian takeaway capacity, Waha pricing & the importance of connecting production with growing end markets. @Enbridge $600MM acquisition of Salt Creek Midstream is another reminder that infrastructure is becoming an increasingly important part of the Permian investment story.
This deal gives Enbridge a major crude gathering position in the Delaware Basin that connects into its broader pipeline network and ultimately to the Enbridge Ingleside export terminal near Corpus Christi. In other words, Enbridge is continuing to build a more integrated system from the Permian wellhead all the way to the Gulf Coast. The fact that @Chevron is already a JV partner on part of the system makes the strategy even more interesting.
Minerals, Royalties & NonOp investors may not own the pipeline but infrastructure still matters enormously. Better connectivity to Gulf Coast refining and export markets can improve realized pricing, strengthen operator economics and remove constraints that might otherwise slow future development.
I think the bigger theme is becoming pretty clear: the quality of a Permian asset is increasingly about more than just the rock. Where that acreage sits relative to pipelines, processing, power, water and major end markets can have a meaningful impact on long-term development and value.

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Sanctions do not necessarily remove barrels from the global oil market. In many cases, they simply change how those barrels move and who is willing to buy them. Derren Geiger from Cornerstone Acquisition and Management explains how Russia and Iran have used “shadow fleet tankers” to continue moving sanctioned crude, often at discounted prices, to buyers like China. The producer still generates revenue, the buyer gets cheaper barrels, and the oil continues finding its way into the global market through a much less transparent supply chain.

For Minerals, Royalties & NonOp investors, that is an important distinction when thinking about geopolitical risk. While wars and sanctions can create major volatility, sometimes their impact on global supply is much more muted.

Full Podcast Episode with Derren Geiger:
https://t.co/WWD4axN5VN

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

@_texascapital has been lending to Oil & Gas companies for more than 20 years and were one of the first Banks to establish a dedicated lending strategy around the Minerals & Royalties space. Today, they have established themselves as one of the leaders in both NonOp and Minerals related financings.
That is why I am excited to have Texas Capital back as the LEAD SPONSOR of my October 27th Minerals & NonOp Assembly in Houston! If you are looking for debt capital to fund your next acquisition or development program, then make sure to connect with their team during the event.

Minerals & NonOp Assembly Ticket Registration Link:
https://t.co/bjXENtXbqh

For more info on speaking opportunities, sponsorships, and/or dinner tables, please email me at [email protected]

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Only a few days after breaking into the NonOp with their 23 well Red River NonOp acquisition in the Bakken, Callan JMB, through their NonOp subsidiary Callan Power, is at it again! On August 27th, Callan announced the Bakken NonOp acquisition from The Pfanenstiel Company for $12.5MM cash plus reimbursement of certain costs associated with wells currently in process.

The acquired portfolio includes:
• ~150 BOE/d of net production (~85% oil)
• Interests across 377 gross PDPs
• ~3,000 net acres (all HBD)
• 27 gross WIPs (permitted, drilling, awaiting completion or being completed)
• 4+ net PUD locations
• ~4.3 MMBOE of net proved reserves, ~79% oil
• $48.1MM proved PV-10
• $82.7MM 3P PV-10

At $75 WTI, Callan estimates the existing producing assets will generate approximately $2.5MM of annualized net operating cash flow, representing a stated 21.2% unlevered cash return on the purchase price. This return is before considering the 27 additional WIPs or future drilling inventory.

ORIGINAL PRESS RELEASE:
https://t.co/RrcMUhcqrO

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

On August 20th, Evolution Petroleum Corporation (NYSE American: EPM) recently closed a $16MM mineral & royalty acquisition in the Midland Basin. The acquired interests span ~3,420 NRAs across Reagan, Upton, Glasscock, Midland and Martin Counties.

Portfolio highlights:
• ~210 BOE/d of current production (~65% liquids)
• 832 PDPs, 7 completed wells, 34 DUCs, 27 permits, and ~1,257 additional PUDs
• Roughly $3.9MM of NTM asset-level cash flow
• ~4.1x acquisition multiple based on NTM cash flow

Evolution historically has been primarily focused on acquiring long-life, producing NonOp oil & gas assets, so it’s interesting to see the company now building minerals & royalties into what management describes as a “second engine” for the business.
More broadly, it has been notable to see smaller public companies like Callan JMB, Orion Diversified Holding Co. and now Evolution making moves in the A&D market over the past few weeks across Minerals, Royalties and NonOp assets. While these are still relatively small transactions, the activity suggests there is growing interest among smaller public companies in using these asset classes as a way to add production, cash flow and development exposure without taking on full operating responsibility. That is a trend worth watching…

ORIGINAL PRESS RELEASE:
https://t.co/VBTvPoaqV2

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Imagine the guy on the other side of the glass in this scene of Good Will Hunting is a wealth manager telling you that oil & gas investing is too risky and that you are already diversified enough because you own public equities, bonds, real estate and a little private credit.
Meanwhile, you try telling him that Minerals & Royalties can offer:
• Monthly yield
• An inflation hedge - No OPEX or CAPEX
• Cost free upside from future development
• Returns that are uncorrelated with the S&P 500
As Family Offices continue looking for real asset exposure, income and diversification, I think Minerals & Royalties deserve to be part of the discussion.
And after owning them in your portfolio for a while, you may want to go back to that wealth manager, knock on the glass and ask:
“How do you like them Minerals & Royalties?”

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

One of the biggest advantages of #tokenization is accessibility. Digital assets can reduce some of the friction that exists in traditional finance by lowering reliance on intermediaries while enabling faster settlement, fractional ownership, greater transparency, and in some markets, 24/7 access. As Will Shen points out in this clip, the technology is not necessarily changing the underlying investment, it is changing how investors can access and transact around it.

I think that framework is especially relevant for Minerals, Royalties & NonOp interests, where deal access, larger check sizes, administration, and liquidity have historically created barriers for investors. That is where @TokenizedEnergy fits into the conversation by using tokenization to fractionalize access to professionally sourced, underwritten, and managed Oil & Gas investments while making the ownership process more seemless and accessible.

Will and I go deeper on the benefits of tokenization and digital asset investing in the full episode:
https://t.co/ZqmMwp7vZG

If you’re interested in learning more about adding tokenized Minerals, Royalties & NonOp interests to your digital wallet, then email me at [email protected] or visit https://t.co/O30cOt0Xxb

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Excited to have the TPL team involved as a Tier 1 Dinner Table Sponsor at the Minerals & NonOp Awards Dinner on October 27th in Houston. If you want to talk Minerals, water, surface, or where the data center opportunity fits into the broader Permian story, be sure to connect with their team during the event.

Minerals & NonOp Assembly Ticket Registration Link:
https://t.co/bjXENtXbqh

For more info on speaking opportunities, sponsorships, and/or dinner tables, please email me at [email protected]

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Proper mineral management can uncover a surprising amount of hidden value. And when that value supports a great cause, the work becomes even more meaningful.
Marian Pasko shared a great example involving the Capuchin Poor Clares of Denver, who purchased land for a retreat center and unknowingly acquired the Minerals that came with it. Marian later discovered interests in multiple wells, several hundred thousand dollars sitting in suspense, and open acreage that ultimately generated a six-figure lease bonus.

Valuable mineral interests are constantly inherited, overlooked, bundled into surface acquisitions, or owned by people and institutions that never intended to be in the Oil & Gas business. That is part of what makes Minerals so interesting: you never really know where the next pocket of value or buying opportunity may be hiding.

Full podcast episode:
https://t.co/Cqq9AIKue9

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

The Marcellus & Utica have enormous low-cost supply but getting that gas into constrained Northeast markets has always been a problem. That is why I have been watching Williams’ revived Constitution Pipeline project, which would move ~650 MMcf/d of Marcellus gas across ~125 miles from Pennsylvania into New York. The project actually received FERC approval more than a decade ago before New York permitting issues effectively killed it.

Now Williams is trying again… FERC is actively reviewing the project and Williams is targeting a Q4 2028 in-service date. Williams other long-delayed Northeast project, NESE, actually broke ground earlier this year, which makes this Constitution Pipeline project much harder to dismiss.

A new Daymark Energy Advisors analysis estimates Constitution could generate ~$5.8B of wholesale power cost savings across New York & New England over 20 years, including ~$3B in New York, largely by relieving gas constraints during periods of peak demand.
For Appalachia minerals buyers, more takeaway would improve realizations, reduce basis pressure, and support additional development. The real question is whether or not buyers are willing to underwrite any additional midstream expansion into their underwriting on deals. Call me cynical but I do not think any of the Appalachia Mineral Bros are counting on these pipeline projects to go through but I am sure they would all be pleasantly surprised if they do!

[Tim Pawul @MinOpAuthority]

Excited to have the Ellipsis team back as a Tier 2 Dinner Table Sponsor for my Minerals & NonOp Awards Dinner on October 27th in Houston. They continue to look for larger scale NonOp acquisitions and drilling partnerships so be sure to connect with Matt Gentry and the Ellipsis team during the event.

Minerals & NonOp Assembly Ticket Registration Link:
https://t.co/bjXENtXbqh

For more info on speaking opportunities, sponsorships, and/or dinner tables, please email me at [email protected]